2012 College Football Win Totals: Oklahoma State
Analyzing Oklahoma State’s 2012 college football win totals is tough for me because as an OU fan who hates that other state school, whether I like to admit it or not, I know this is no longer the old OSU. Since T Boone Pickens has been pouring money into this program, the Pokes have been on an upward cycle for several years now. Like the Texas Tech teams under Mike Leach, they now work out of a system. And a very good one at that.
Tags Big 12Kansas StateOklahoma SoonersOklahoma StateTCUTexasTexas TechWest Virginia
- Previous College Football Win Totals – Auburn Tigers
- Next Betting on College Football – 7 Essential Tips
5 thoughts on “2012 College Football Win Totals: Oklahoma State”
Leave a Reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
The biggest thing I think about with Okie State is that under Mike Gundy they tend to exceed expectations. I believe it was the 2010 season where they lost a ton of guys and everybody had them picked to finish fifth or sixth in the Big 12 south and they finished 11-2. Right now, I think Gundy’s earned some slack with me and while 8-4 sounds fair I would probably up that to at least 9-3 simply based on his recent results. Of course, he is playing a freshman QB…..
Kevin..Like I said, this is much like the system that Leach implemeted at TT. Gundy is very good at getting players who aren’t necessarily 4 or 5 star talent, but recruited and developed to fit in their system. That’s why they’ve barely missed a beat for the last couple of years. Just like Leach, who never failed to make it to a bowl. The big difference this year to the previous two seasons is instead of having grandpa Weedon at QB, they’ll have an 18 year old freshman.
It’s why I can’t give OSU a definite either way on the over/under 8 because until Lunt proves that he can throw the ball effectively to unproven receivers, these Big 12 D’s will put 8 in the box and we’ll see how good their run game is. Take away the run and let Johnny freshman beat you. We should find out pretty quick how well that plan works. Also like I said, OSU caught a bit of a break with their schedule this season. Especially with these new teams coming into the conference having to play in Stillwater. Along with Texas.
I think your key point is that in years past Oklahoma State’s offense has been able to outscore the opposing team. While their defense helped in some games last season, they still gave up 26.8 ppg which is ONLY good in the Big 12 it seems. The question needed proposed is this, “Can Oklahoma State outscore their opponents this year?” With a freshman QB, and no foreseeable All-American at WR like has been for the last several years, and with a revamped offensive line, I’m going to have to answer, no, to that question.
Still, I agree mostly with your assessment of games with a couple of exceptions: I actually think Arizona has a chance to be better than they were last season. Oklahoma State will have trouble with them because the offensive scheme will be different and a lot of their offense will be rushing. Also, this will be the first road game for the freshman QB. I give their chances at winning this game 50% or a little less.
I also give their chances at winning against Baylor on the road at 50% or less. The few times I saw Florence come in and play whenever Griffin was out of the game last season, he looked pretty good. Obviously, Baylor will see some drop in offensive performance with the loss of Griffin, but I don’t think it is going to be as drastic as some predict. Briles’ systems are now firmly entrenched and every player knows their part in them. I look for continued success in this program. As you mentioned in your post, this game also follows the Oklahoma game on their schedule and if they are already bowl eligible by this time, they may not care much.
I think the best bet on season totals here is Oklahoma State Under 8 games. However, it is not a strong enough lean for me to want to take the action.
I also think OSU struggles at Arizona, especially with the freshman QB making his first road start. They may win, but 70% is a little too high of an estimation in my opinion.
I understand the disagreement about the 70% chance I give OSU to beat Zona. Half of this is based on what the books are giving the futures point spread odds on that game, which opened at OSU -8.5. Now if you think that’s a good bet on Zona, I urge you to get it now. But keep in mind that Rich Rod offenses don’t always get off to smooth starts (Michigan). And that OSU will have one of the best LB/Secondary groups in the Big 12 to defense that new offense. Basically the same group that caused 41 takeaways last year.
I do agree with you guys that if there is an upset possibilty against a more talented team, it usually comes on the road early in the season when your dealing with a rookie QB’s. SoonerBS, I understand what your saying about OSU having to outscore their opponents. But I do think their defense will be better this year. Espeically in the back 7.
I’m not saying OSU won’t miss a beat. If their new QB struggles they could miss many beats. But right now until I see different, I still feel they are the 3rd best team in the Big 12 behind Texas and OU. OSU has one of the most stable coaching staffs in the country. With their only losses over the years coming at OC. But Gundy is an offensive specialist, and they aren’t going to miss a beat on that side of the ball. They still have one of the best DC’s and OL coaches around. Unlike OU, their OL has been very consistent for the last 4 or 5 years. And they have 60 starts returning this season. Plenty to work with. They should be able to establish their running game until the new QB gets some game reps.
Now I’m not drinking the Phil Steele Kool-Aid, who thinks OSU will get to double digit wins again this year. I think it’s going to be back to the kiddie table for the Pokes this season. But I would be very surprised if their win total doesn’t fall between 7-9 wins. That’s why I set 8 at a starting point. I don’t know if Steele actually personally does his writeups anymore. My guess is it’s strictly a staff. But whomever it is, they can definitely be inconsistent at times. For example they really emphasize on what OSU doesn’t have coming back and has all of these question marks, yet looks at OU being forced to play WR’s and TE’s who have never played Division 1 football, yet they all believe that OU is going to be improved this year. Like I said, it’s about perception. But none of us can say for sure how an inexperinced player is going to perform until he’s thrown to the wolves.