Tennessee & LSU Football 2015 – Better, worse or about the same

TENNESSEE OFFENSE

This was a sore spot for the Vols last season starting a TON of underclassmen – but 2015’s offense should reap the rewards of 2014’s struggles. UT scored 23 points or less 5 times last season and went 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in those games; they scored 24 points or more 7 times vs FBS foes and went 7-1 SU (only losing by 3 points in Athens) & 4-2 ATS.

This year all but one starter returns and we should see the first truly potent Vols offense in quite some time. QB Joshua Dobbs was a playmaker once getting into the lineup last year, but he must stay healthy; the backfield is filled with stars including Alabama transfer Alvin Kamara, who will make an immediate push for the bulk of the carries despite the presence of Jalen Hurd.

The WR corps is filthy with talent, speed & now experience while the OL returns all 5 starters and should improve upon last year’s sack totals (especially combined with the nimble Dobbs taking most of the snaps vs. the stationary Worley).

This unit averaged 29 ppg in 2014 & that number could easily jump by a TD to the mid 30s in 2015.

TENNESSEE DEFENSE

Head Coach Butch Jones really put his stamp of physical play on this unit as they checked in around 35^th in the country in most key defensive statistics.

Like the offense they return a bulk of their starters but will miss MLB A.J. Johnson, who was their team leader & possibly best player on defense. The DL has a deep rotation & should be one of the best in the SEC while there is no question the secondary will be one of the best in the country with solid coverage CB’s & big hitting S’s.

I expect this unit to take another step forward and become a Top 20 defensive unit this season. The special teams are also a net positive for the Vols despite the fact they have to replace their punter.

BUY OR SELL

The Vols win total is set at 7.5 wins (-140 over). I flat out LOVED the hiring of Butch Jones when the Vols landed him & it sure seems like he has this once proud program back on the right track. The best thing about the 2015 club is they will have a ton back in 2016 & may even be considered the SEC East favorite heading into that season should they continue to build off last year’s success.

In OOC action they have two lock wins against Western Carolina & North Texas at home & a likely win over Bowling Green in Nashville; then they have a HUGE matchup against Oklahoma in Knoxville, which will go a long way to determining the success of both team’s relative to expectations in 2015.

Their crossover games are tough, hosting Arkansas and travelling to Alabama; a 1-1 split there would be ideal. Even if they lose to Oklahoma & split the two crossover games, they would be 4-2 with six divisional contests remaining, needing another 4-2 mark there to go over 7.5 wins. The road/home splits are not ideal for those divisional games facing Florida, Missouri & Kentucky on the road but they do get Georgia at home.

Barring any hiccups against teams they should beat, which is no guarantee as these Vols still lack the pedigree of an experienced/championship team, I expect them to hit the 8+ win mark & lean over here.

Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs

LSU OFFENSE

The drop-off in record LSU suffered through last season was due to an anemic offense, in particular, QB play. Miles & his staff deserve some of the blame here as their pipeline at the position was not very strong, forcing a pair of guys under center before they were ready for the bright lights.

Coming out of spring practice a starter was not named and the competition between Anthony Jennings & Brandon Harris will extend into August.

Outside the all-important QB position the offense has some talent, especially in the backfield as So. RB Leonard Fournette is ready to take over as the every down back for the Tigers – and he should have at least an All SEC season, if not All American. The WR’s are talented but young & lack a ton of experience, which does not help the QB position at all.

The OL is almost always amongst the best in America and despite losing two pieces from the interior it should once again be very solid.

Special teams are usually another plus area at LSU and this year will be no different as they return both their PK & P, while there are always a plethora of big play return men.

Overall the offense is still very young with ONE Sr. in the projected 2015 starting lineup – showing improvement off last year’s mid 70s ranking is imperative as the coaching staff internally is probably targeting 2016 for a championship run.

LSU DEFENSE

Always one of the best in America they did not disappoint last season checking in at #5 in scoring & #9 in yards allowed. This year Miles has a new Defensive Coordinator in Kevin Steele who will change the base defense from the usual 4-3 into more 3-4 – which will fit their personnel just fine.

The secondary will be one of the best in America (again), but the LB corps has some questions, as lacking speed seemed to be an issue as last season progressed – look for highly touted younger guys to get looks there. Their defensive line is deep, experienced & talented and combined with that secondary will make it very tough for teams to have a good passing attack against them – especially at home in Baton Rouge.

BUY OR SELL

LSU’s season win total is set at 8 (-125 over). The pressure is starting to grow on Miles down in Baton Rouge as the Tigers have just one conference championship since 2007, and none in the last three seasons.

For me Miles is one of the best coaches in the country, but we all know these days it’s all about “what have you done for me lately” and if Miles is not able to deliver at least an SEC West title in the next 2 seasons he may decide it’s time to move on.

The schedule seems to be very favorable to at least win 8 games in 2015 with OOC games against McNeese State, Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and Western Kentucky almost certainly setting a base of 4 wins. In cross-over action they get Florida at home & travel to South Carolina which is very favorable; road divisional contests come against Mississippi State, Alabama & Ole Miss. If they get any sort of positive play out of their QB, 8 wins is a minimum, with upside to possibly 11-1 with some luck (which Miles’ teams often have).

Definitely like the OVER 8 wins here.

Patrick Donovan is a professional sports handicapper and was a panelist at the 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsBoss and on his site THESPORTSBOSS.COM.