Upon diving into our initial piece regarding college football win totals a week prior, I provided my input with regard to the SEC West.

A keen soft spot for some, I nudged bettors to perhaps glance at the over for Alabama, Arkansas, and both the Tigers of LSU and Auburn, while I recommended the opposite for Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

In essence, many recreational wagerers base calculations and numbers off of previous years results–believe me, it’s rather easy to scan the statistical data on paper and subsequently select sides, however, I’m attempting to grasp an edge anyway I can in hopes of swaying bettors to loot the profit that win totals offer.

Without further adieu, we sort out the remnants of the SEC and dissect the East in this week’s edition.

 

Florida Gators (7.5, over -125/under -105)

2014 Record: 7-5

Players to Watch: WR DeMarcus Robinson, CB Vernon Hargreaves III

Florida’s a team that jumps out at me right away, particularly not in a positive manner. 

Not only has the program seemingly folded the last few seasons, they welcome in a new coach in Jim McElwain out of Colorado State to grab the reins. While he’s proven he can win and is notorious for developing quarterbacks (ex: Garrett Grayson), he’s been dealt a pretty inefficient hand regarding talent, bringing back just 12 returnees from 2014, including only two offensive linemen to protect the quarterback, which is the other red flag that emerges.

Treon Harris appeared flustered and incompetent under center last year and I’m not sure he’s the answer for the Gators. It’s a different story if Florida encompasses even the slightest bit of protection, but they’re dealing with some unfamiliar faces up front. 

They get a favorable agenda for 2015 with only four true road contests, but Georgia, LSU, and Florida State hold the advantage over the Gators. Florida will also hope to slip by Ole Miss, Tennessee, and road matchups with South Carolina and Kentucky.

McElwain’s going from the cream of the crop in the Mountain West to a dismantled program in the SEC, and while I’m hoping he can dig Florida out of the rut, it won’t happen in ’15.

Pick: Florida Gators Under 7.5 Wins (-105)

 

Georgia Bulldogs (9, over -135/under -105)

2014 Record: 10-3

Players to Watch: RB Nick Chubb, QB Greyson Lambert

One goes out, one comes in.

The Dawgs will certainly miss the presence of all-everything running back Todd Gurley, but will respond with a slasher in Nick Chubb, a guy who shattered Herschel Walker’s accolade of rushing yards in a bowl game versus Louisville back in ’14.

While many tout Chubb as the SEC’s front runner in the backfield, Georgia also adds Virginia transfer Greyson Lambert at quarterback, so Mark Richt will seek a game manager to perfect an offense supplying minuscule experience at wide receiver.

What I can highlight is Georgia’s 5th ranked pass defense from a year ago and to see much of their secondary return for 2015, a unit that has progressed from seasons prior.

Nine is such a tricky number given Georgia clashes with Alabama, Auburn and Georgia Tech (potentially three losses) but will also travel to a capable opponent’s backyard in Tennessee.

The books mark this one right on the dot, and frankly, it looks spot on.

Pick: Lay off

 

Kentucky Wildcats (6, over -120/under -110)

2014 Record: 5-7

Player to Watch: QB Patrick Towles

Notice I mentioned a lone player to bookmark for 2015 in quarterback Patrick Towles, as the highly touted gunslinger shined bright in the opening six games of 2014, only to break down en rout to a 0-6 record to end the season.

While the competition remained open during Spring Practice, Towles’ consistency may be the factor that pins the badge on the starting slot for fall.

He’ll be coupled with receiver Ryan Timmons, a guy the coaches expect to step up in 2014, as he’s coming off a year where he led all wideouts with 533 yards.

Luckily for Kentucky, they return a string of defensive linemen and their secondary, the Wildcats posting honorable numbers against the pass in 2014 (215 ypg). It’ll be that much easier for UK to blanket receivers if the pressure continues to surge from the guys up front, all while playing in a division that lacks offensive output.

There’s something I like about this Wildcats team. I can’t put my finger on it just yet, but if Towles can limit mistakes and clamp on to a groove, I see no reason Kentucky can’t surpass their win total for 2015.

Pick: Kentucky Wildcats Over 6 Wins (-125)

 

Missouri Tigers (7.5, over -130/under +100)

2014 Record: 11-3

Players to Watch: QB Maty Mauk, LB Kentrell Brothers

A tale of two seasons for head coach Gary Pinkel’s offense as 2013’s high-octane offense reached 40 points or more in seven games while 2014 saw the Tigers with just a pair. 

Perhaps QB Maty Mauk wilted without his 2013 receiving corps, as the Kenton, Ohio product amassed 1,000 yards in just four games as the starter in the previous season while compiling a meager 2,648 yards in 14 starts a year ago, along with a 25-13 TD-INT ratio.

We saw Mauk level off in 2014 without L’Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham and now will lack a big time receiver as Mizzou cuts ties with Bud Sasser (1,003 receiving yards in 2014).

A once well-oiled machine dilapidated to a rank of 98th in the nation via total offense, averaging 367 yards per contest, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Mizzou struggled once more without the star-studded power on offense.

The defense returns a few linebackers and defensive backs but we aren’t dealing with necessarily a shutdown unit. 

Even with slack opponents like SEMO, UCONN, and Arkansas State to kickoff the schedule with, a one-win conference slate wouldn’t get much of a rise out of me. I’m not biting on the 7.5 following a year with 11 wins.

Pick: Missouri Tigers Under 7.5 Wins (+100)

 

South Carolina Gamecocks (7, over -120/under -110)

2014 Record: 7-6

Players to Watch: WR Pharoh Cooper, DT Gerald Dixon Jr.

Touching a bit on Maty Mauk and his position cemented for 2015, the South Carolina Gamecocks will unfortunately not pocket the same luxury as Steve Spurrier has held his own mini competition for that slot in the fall.

Whomever takes snaps will be complemented with wide receiver Pharoh Cooper, a dynamic playmaker that’s receiving early season buzz in the SEC, so you can check mark a positive note on offense.

Aside from that, like many of the clubs residing in the East, the offense holds a series of question marks, while the defense seems up to par.

The prototypical South Carolina defense went for naught in 2014 as Clowney’s exit proved costly for a unit that was constantly gashed by opposing offenses.

I’m not so sure Steve Spurrier regroups the troops following a subpar year, and with non-conference foes in Clemson and North Carolina, I don’t like anything about the Gamecocks in 2015.

Pick: South Carolina Gamecocks Under 7 (-105)

Tennessee Volunteers (7.5, over -140/under -110)

2014 Record: 7-6

Players to Watch: RB Jalen Hurd, OLB Jalen Reeves-Maybin

Aside from progressing down the stretch in ’14, Rocky Top secures a hoard of returnees from last year’s assembly with 19 total, upping their experience primarily at the skill position and D-line, two critical channels within a rigid conference. 

The crucial segment of the Volunteers lies within the opening weeks of the season: a pair of non-conference opponents in Bowling Green and Western Carolina in weeks one and three should formulate into victories without much distress, however, a barricade stations itself between the two with powerhouse Oklahoma.

Nabbing three consecutive wins may rev the engines for a glorious season, as I perceive the Vols to also seize the upper hand over Arkansas (week 5), North Texas (week 11) and Vanderbilt (week 13). 

I’ll drink the Kool-Aid and juice on Tennessee and title them my dark horse in the East.

Pick: Tennessee Volunteers Over 7.5 Wins (-140)

 

Vanderbilt Commodores (3, over -135/under -105)

2014 record: 3-9

Players to Watch: QB Johnny McCrary, CB Taurean Ferguson

While we’re fixated on the subject, let’s stick with the Commodores of Vandy (3, over -135/under -105), as they surpass the Volunteers in terms of experience with a whopping 21 starters returning.

I find it increasingly difficult to support a program that failed to vanquish a conference foe in 2014, however, I’m not dwelling on the past.

They rendezvous with Western Kentucky the opening frame of 2015, and while the Hilltoppers sparkled on offense a season prior, the ‘Dores may grasp the advantage in terms of physicality in my opinion. 

While we’re a few W’s away from a mere push, I’m hoping Vandy can score a victory versus Texas A&M or Kentucky towards the latter half of their agenda, with a duo of contests outside the Power Five in Houston and Middle Tennessee scattered between.

While the Achilles heel of finding a quarterback to lead the offense hindered any rhythm much of the season, Vandy may have their go to guy in Johnny McCrary as he displayed a handful of bright spots in ’14.

I’ll bite here as I believe the ‘Dores, at minimum, push the total.

Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores Over 3 Wins (-135)

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For more college football discussion and information, you can follow Alex on Twitter @AlexK_47.

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