Here is my breakdown of the 2015 Nebraska season win totals. 

When talking stats I like to refer to Football Study Hall and Football Outsiders; Their stat breakdowns are more in-depth than game stats; they take into account many factors.

Vegas Sports Stat (@VegasSportsStat) takes into account many factors when trying to look for value for a season long win total bet. There are many unknowns when you place a bet and have to wait 4-6 months to even know if you have a chance of collecting on your bet. 

There were some other B1G season win totals that I liked, such as Ohio State over 11 & Penn State over 7.5, but you are laying -160. I liked Illinois over 3.5, but again you are laying -170 to win 100.

I do see Michigan State wining more than 9.5 games, but again you are laying -155 to win 100.  Minnesota should win more than 5.5 games but laying -175 to win a 100 is not good value to me. 

Wisconsin is tricky, my gut says they will lose game 1 against Alabama but win all their other games, however I do not believe they will in fact win all their other games. They do not have a bye until week 10, and I believe they will be tested at Nebraska.

 

2015 Nebraska Season Win Totals

New coach, new system, no Abdullah and a rebuilt O Line, This screams under, but I actually like the over and here is why.

In 2014 Nebraska underachieved. This is why Pelini was fired and new coach Mike Riley was hired. Mike Riley brings a fresh face, positive attitude and vertical pass threat to Lincoln. 

The current Nebraska roster does not yet have the ideal personnel for Riley’s offense, but he does have some good parts with which to work with, starting with dual-threat QB Tommy Armstrong. 

I like the over 8 wins, laying -120.

Schedule: The Cornhuskers have a schedule that should allow them to win at least 9 games. Below I have broken their schedule down game-by-game, and I also have included some Offensive and Defensive nuggets.

 

2015 SCHEDULE
Date	Opponent	Projected S&P+ Rank	Predictions
5-Sep	BYU	45	W
12-Sep	South Alabama	98	W
19-Sep	at Miami	28	L
26-Sep	Southern Miss	108	W
3-Oct	at Illinois	63	W
10-Oct	Wisconsin	25	50/50
17-Oct	at Minnesota	42	50/50
24-Oct	Northwestern	62	W
31-Oct	at Purdue	74	W
7-Nov	Michigan State	9	L
14-Nov	at Rutgers	79	W
27-Nov	Iowa	57	W
			9-3

 

OFFENSE

– 6 starters return on Offense

– New HC; could see more vertical passing game

– New Offense will spread ball around; will not focus on 1 skill player

– Went 1-4 against top 40; 8-0 against 41-128 ranked teams; bad against good

– EXPLOSIVE; 24th; EFFICIENCY 41st; Field Position 19th; Finish drive 66th;       good offense; had great RB

– S&P; Rush 23rd; Pass 41st; Overall 31st; had a good offense

– Starting QB returns; 184-345; 53%; 2,695 yards; 22 TD- 12 INT

– Armstrong rushed for 705 yards; has to adjust to new offense and terminology

– Lost a great RB; was great WR out of backfield; Keep eye on new RB

– RB’s have talent and depth; just tough to replace a player like Abdullah

– Return # 2 & # 3 receivers, plus 8 of top 10; good depth; WR unit will be good

– O Line stats; Adjusted Line 11th; Stuff rate 28th; adjusted sack rate 63rd; This was a good O Line in 2014

– O line returns 2 of 5 starters; 23 career starts; backups have 5 starts

– 2nd year in a row Neb has to replace several O Line starters; Keep eye on rush stats

– Offense has new system; QB is solid & experienced; RB’s are young; Good receiver depth; O Line lacks experience

 

DEFENSE

– 6 starters return on Defense

– Defense was not a typical Pelini defense; bad run D (9th in B1G)

– Explosive 94th; Efficiency 32nd; Field Position 1st; Finish Drive 82nd

– S&P; Rush 88th; Pass 18th; Overall 49th; Good pass D; Poor run D

– D Line stats; Adjusted Line 93rd; Stuff rate 98th; Adjusted sack 93rd

– D Line returns everyone except Gregory; D Line has to improve rush

– D line has Depth and Experience; how can new staff make them better is ?

– Both DT’s weigh 300 pounds; RUN DEFENSE HAS TO IMPROVE

– LB’s lost 4 of 7 players; LB corp will be tested; lack Experience & Depth

– Top 3 LBs have experience; Depth is the issue; LB’s 4-7 have no experience

– Front 7 is ??; The DL can be good but wasn’t; LB’s lack Depth & Experience

– Secondary returns 2 of 4 starters but return all backups; Lose #1 CB

– Keep eye on Pass Defense; lost 2 good starters; have depth w/ SRs & Jrs

– If pass rush is good the DBs will be really good; Pass rush is king

Defense will be good; D Line needs better pass rush; LB’s lack depth; DBs are good

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For more college football information throughout the 2015 season, please follow Jake on Twitter @VegasSportsStat.

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