Tournament Record 0-1

Utah +5

Its hard to bet against a Duke team that has dominated in its first two tournament games and covered both games by an average of 8 points. In addition they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests and since the beginning of February they are 13-1 straight up. Their only loss being to Notre Dame in the conference tournament, which they could of easily tanked to get ready for the real tournament. Meanwhile Utah comes in after beating Georgetown and Stephen F. Austin. Their first round win against Stephen F. Austin was unconvincing and the Utes had to pull away late to beat and cover verse Georgetown. So with the momentum clearly on the side of Duke why do I like Utah? Utah gets up for big time matchups. During the regular season they beat Wichita State by one and lost to Kansas by only three. Two main categories Utah holds an advantage over Duke, and that’s Defense and Free Throw percentage. Away from home Utah holds its opponents to 39.2% on field goals compared to Dukes opponents who averaged 45.2%. While Utah shoots slightly better then Duke at the free throw line in away games at 71.6% the difference in this one may come down to who can shoot the three ball. Duke seems to distance themselves from their opponents by draining threes. In away games Utah holds its opponents to 29.5% from behind the arc while shooting 35.1% themselves. On the flip side Duke shoots 38.2% but gives up 38.5% to their opponents. Points will be at a premium in this game and if Utah can live up to their statistical advantage in what I view as key areas, I believe Utah can cover this game and possibly win outright.

Why I really like Utah is the overvaluation of Duke. The public perception and historical success of Duke comes into play with a game like this. 5 points looks like a narrow margin but these teams are evenly matched. With early numbers suggesting this matchup being the most heavily bet game of the sweet 16 I look for this line to move up to 5.5 again. To put in perspective how much money will be wagered on this contest on 3/25 this matchup already had 3x more wagers on it then any NBA game that played that day. This also looks to be the most heavily parlayed/teased game of the day with almost 87% of those wagers backing Duke. Not to mention around 77% of the early tickets backing Duke. Take the points and back Utah.

-CCon the Sharp Contrarian

@ccon8181