Record YTD: 5-7

A pair of 2015 Sweet Sixteen wagers For Your Consideration 

West Virginia has been fun to watch in this tournament mostly due to their high energy.  They start the full court press from tip off and never let up.  And although it can be highly effective, it can also be fatal.  The key to breaking the Huggins press is never hold the ball, always be passing.  Kentucky has this ability because of their size, length and skill to go over the top and not allow multiple traps to occur.  I expect the Wildcats to move the ball quickly, leaving mismatches in the open court forcing West Virginia to “game change” their strategy, something Iowa State did earlier in the season, resulting in a sweep.

This will be the best defense West Virginia has faced (by far), and with the Mountaineers ranked #275 in effective FG%, this could be a double digit lead for Kentucky before the 10 minute mark of the first half. 

Kentucky will have other opportunities to blow their undefeated season against teams that match-up well against them, like Wisconsin or Arizona, but it won’t be tonight.

Consider Kentucky -13.5

I will keep this pick very short and sweet because I know how much people love Tom Izzo during March and frankly, I can’t say the Sooners are that much better of a team.  90% of the bettors will make the case for the Spartans based on the coach and a great coach he is, no debate there.  BUT….

Instead of looking at this game from an X’s and O’s standpoint let’s look at it from a logic and oddsmakers point of view.  I had this question on the radio last night, “how come a 7 seed is favored over a 3 seed?  Did the selection committee screw up?”  The answer is, no.  The oddsmakers have put Michigan State as the favorite because they know they can get away with it. REMEMBER ….

Theoretically you’re not betting against the sportsbook, you’re betting against other bettors that have an opposite opinion of you.  It’s the books job to try and keep an equal amount of MONEY on both sides.  As it stands right now, only 20% of the total bets are for the Sooners, yet the line has moved against the Spartans going from -2.5 to -2.   If Michigan State was that much better and Coach Izzo always wins this time of year, then why isn’t the spread higher or moving in that direction?  Why such a small number and why would it move a half a point in favor of the Sooners?  If you’re a Michigan State lover, I would tread lightly.

Consider Oklahoma +2