YTD RECORD 5-4

Georgia Bulldogs +6

The Bulldogs age coming off a 11 point loss to Arkansas in the second round of the SEC tournament. While the Michigan State Spartans were in the Big 10 championship game in their last contest, losing in overtime to the eventual number 1 seed in the West Wisconsin. The Spartans had won their four previous games before falling to Wisconsin, earning them the #7 seed in West.

So why do I like the 10th seeded Bulldogs? They turned the corner at the end of the season winning five of six before losing to Arkansas in their conference tournament. Even though the SEC is not a “power” conference, they played Kentucky tough both games. This is a team that grinds out games and finished the season with an 8-4 record in true road games. Bettors see a Tom Izzo Michigan State team and back it without realizing the talent level has dropped off from years past and they lack a consistent scorer. One of the key factors for me in this match-up is free throw percentage away from home. Georgia averages just over 3 more free throw attempts then its opponents in away games and makes, on average, 73.1%. Meanwhile Michigan State shoots 7 less free throws then their opponents in road games, on average, and makes only 62.3%. In what I expect to be a grind it out game, free throws could be the difference.

If that wasn’t enough, this line opened up at Michigan State -5 and with lopsided bets coming in on the Spartans at a 71% rate the line has moved to -6. So not only are we getting a seasoned team that plays games close, we capitalize on the public betting the game up to -6, adding value to the Georgia side. After an opening day full of upsets I look for the public to come out in full force for day two, chasing chalk and helping bump up our lines a little more. I expect this to be one of the most heavily teased and parlayed games for Friday as well with upwards of 84% of such action on the Spartans so far. Expect a close one and I would not be surprised if Georgia wins outright, but I’ll take the plus 6 just to be safe.

CCon the Sharp Contrarian

@ccon8181