March Madness picks for Friday, March 20, 2015. 

Again, I’ll keep these short and sweet. Good luck!

UC Irvine +8 vs Louisville

If you had a chance to watch UC Irvine last weekend, or at any point this year, I think you have to be optimistic about the Anteaters’ chances against a Louisville team that has lost it’s way. UC Irvine features a 7’6 center, Mamadou Ndiaye, and they like to drop into a 2-3 zone and force team to beat them over the top with jump shots and limit penetration off the dribble, which is a bad set up for a Louisville team that can’t shoot. Louisville relies on their defensive pressure to create easy buckets in transition, but if they are unable to do that the offense becomes very stagnant. UC Irvine has seen teams pressure them this year, most recently Hawaii in the Big West Championship, and they only turned it over 9 times in a game they won with ease. Louisville just hasn’t peaked at all as a team this year, and asking them to lay 8 points in a game that I think they’re going to struggle to win seems like a tall task.

Buffalo +4.5 vs West Virginia

Each year we get the trendy 12 seed that everyone falls in love with because ESPN and rest of the bunch drives it down our throats, but the one 12 seed that I think is the most dangerous hasn’t been given much attention and that’s Buffalo. There is a lot to like with this team, beginning with their head coach Bobby Hurley, who has been there and done that as a player in March. Buffalo comes in on a tear, winning their last 8 games in a row and playing their best basketball of the season. The Bulls also played Kentucky very well in Rupp Arena this year and also played Wisconsin tough, and given who their coach is, it’s no surprise that they are anything but intimidated by power programs. For West Virginia, you have to worry about how healthy Juwan Staten and Gary Browne are, and all indication are that they are fine, but still, I want my two best guys a little more than “fine” if I am going to consider laying points in a pretty even machup. Buffalo has seen some teams in the MAC that like to pressure like WVU does, and they faired pretty well because they have some good guards. I like the Bulls to get the upset win in what will probably be one of the better games of the tournament.

Valparaiso +4.5 vs Maryland

I tracked Valparaiso all season and was waiting for their bracket reveal on Sunday to make sure they got a matchup I was comfortable with, and that is the case here with Maryland. Valpo is a defensive oriented team that tries to limit penetration and not give away easy points at the charity stripe, with they are very good at. On the flip side, Maryland relies on the penetration of Dez Wells and Melo Trimble to get their offense rolling and they really don’t have much of an interior scoring threat on their team. The Crusaders boost an extremely talented shot blocker in the middle with Vashil Fernandez, and if he can keep himself on the court and out of foul trouble, I think Maryland is going to struggle scoring in the half court. If I were to point out a glaring weakness in Valpo it would be their ability to take care of the basketball, but I don’t see Maryland pressuring with their guards in order to truly exploit that. Both teams will be able to shoot the three in this game, and if Maryland get’s hot it could be a long night from Valpo, but I’m willing to take the points again in a game that I just think is going to be too tight for the Terps to pull away.

Wichita State -5.5 vs Indiana

When the lines were first released, my gut reaction was to back the Hoosiers, but the more I looked into this game the more I fell in love with the Shockers. If we start on the sidelines, I don’t think there could be more of a mismatch than Gregg Marshall vs Tom Crean. On one side you have one of the best tactical coaches in the game, and on the other you get a clown that is more than likely on his way out of town. If IU can’t score in transition, their offense becomes very discombobulated in the half court, and I definitely expect Gregg Marshall to limit the transition opportunities for IU. We also have to wonder if Tom Crean knows he is on the way out given the comments he made on his radio show last week, and the Hoosiers have had plenty of chances to “play for his job” down the stretch and have folded each time. At the end of the day IU wasn’t a tournament team, and they are playing a Shockers team that was underseeded by a couple spots in my opinion. Toss into the mix that Wichita State is playing a few hours away in Omaha, and I think we get a double digit win for the Shockers.