First day of March Madness action begins today, I hope you are all ready for a crazy tournament. The Saturday Edge team is here to help you sort out the trap games from the easy wins throughout this tournament, and I think we have a nice slate of opening games.

Let’s start with the earlier matchups:

Baylor -9 vs. Georgia State: I know wrote about Baylor being ranked too high in this year’s tournament, and I still firmly believe this to be the case. That said, Baylor is still a solid major conference team and they are not getting nearly enough respect with only a 9-point spread in this game. Georgia State scored the ball very well throughout the season, led by Junior guard R. J. Hunter at 19.8 PPG. However, in the Sun Belt championship vs. Georgia Southern, this team managed only 38 points in the conference’s lowest-scoring championship game in over 50 years. They don’t rebound the ball well, averaging only about 33 rebound per game, while Baylor has been pulling down nearly 40 a game, in part due to the strong play of Rico Gathers. If you don’t rebound against Baylor, you will quickly find yourself on the wrong end of the scoreboard. Georgia State does play a solid pressure defense, but Baylor has faced much tougher and more athletic pressure defenses like West Virginia, a team that they posted a 2-0 record against in the Big 12 season. It will be very cool to see Kevin Ware on the national stage again (yes, the one with the gruesome injury), but I really don’t think Georgia State has much of a chance to keep this one close and I think Baylor’s dominance on the offensive boards will play a big role in this one.

Texas (-2) vs. Butler: Although Texas comes into this match up as an 11-seed, while Baylor gets the 6-seed, Texas is still favored in this one, and for good reason. Butler has not played a team like Texas since Big East conference play began, and I don’t think they will be prepared for the size of this Longhorns team. Texas set a school record in blocks this season, and that will make like difficult for Butler’s main post threats like Andrew Chrabascz and Kameron Woods. One of the things that has made Butler so good this season is their rebounding advantage, but they will not have that in this game. Texas is the 8th-ranked rebounding team in the country, averaging nearly 40 rebound per game, and they play really stout defense both inside and outside of the arc, and they will make it very difficult for Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones to get going. In addition, they have 4 solid ball handlers who shoot above 75% at the line so they will be able to lock up the game if it gets to late game foul shooting. I have Texas advancing in my bracket, and I definitely think that they’ll be able to cover a small spread in this game.

Xavier (-3) vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss is coming off one of the best comebacks of the season, scoring 62 points in the second half to overcome a 17-point halftime deficit against BYU. However, I believe that their run stops against Xavier today in the second round. Xavier plays much better defense than BYU, and that will cause many problems for Ole Miss’ two leading scorers, Stefan Moody and Jarvis Summers. Summers didn’t have his best game of the year on Tuesday, and that was against a very poor defense, so I don’t think he’ll have a great game today against a much better defensive team. Xavier has size inside, so we won’t see the myriad of alley oops and dunks that we saw from the Rebels in their first game. The Musketeers have only lost to one Top-25 team this season (Villanova, 3 times), and they are definitely prepared to make a run in this year’s tournament. They are well-rested, highly disciplined, and have some of the best team chemistry in the country (16.4 assists per game). Although they don’t necessarily have a future NBA player, or even a go to player in late game situations, they will always be able to get an open shot for their teammmates and I could see this team winning a couple of games in this tournament.

Stephen F. Austin (+6.5) vs. Utah: In the tournament for the second-consecutive year, Stephen F. Austin is one of the best offensive teams in the country. Ranked in the top 10 for points, assists, and field goal percentage, they are definitely a dangerous team that could surprise a few people. Their 3 leading scorers shoot better than 50% from the field and that is simply a remarkable number. Utah is a very solid defensive team, but it will be very different to see them when they are not on their home court where they dominated all year. Delon Wright is having an excellent season, but they didn’t end the season well, losing 4 of their last 7 games. They will have a hard time matching up with all of the speed of SFA, and they have certainly not played anyone like them all year long. Every year, a 5-seed loses in the first round to a 12-seed, and this is my favorite match up to predict. I think 6.5 points will be plenty for the Lumberjacks, and I have them advancing in my bracket all the way to the Sweet 16. If you want value on a moneyline, I think this team presents a lot to like.