The brackets are set. We saw a bit of madness already in the First Four, with BYU blowing a 17-point halftime lead, and I for one cannot wait to see what else this year’s tournament has to offer. As I examine the seeding and the regions for 2015, I cannot help but pick out a few teams that I believe to have been seeded improperly. I’ll start with some of the seeds I feel are rated too high, and then point out a couple that are rated too low.

Too High

#4 Georgetown: I know this Hoya team was one of the better teams in the Big East, posting a 12-6 record in conference play and a 21-10 record overall. If this was the Big East of 3-4 years ago, that conference record may have been enough for a higher seed. However, this year, the conference was one of the weakest major conferences in the NCAA and I don’t believe it deserved to send 6 teams to the tournament. Georgetown posted an 0-5 record against Providence and Xavier, two teams that only managed a 6-seed. If that doesn’t scare you, it should. Georgetown beat who it was supposed to beat in the conference, with the one exception being a dominant performance against Villanova back in January, but overall they didn’t fare too well against their tougher conference opponents, and they are simply not a “big game team.” I could definitely see a first round upset for them against the NCAA’s leading scorer Tyler Harvey and the Eastern Washington Eagles, but I certainly don’t have them making it to the Sweet Sixteen.

#3 Baylor: As much as I’ve lobbied for the Bears this season, they do not deserve a 3-seed. In fact, I think most of the Big 12 is ranked too high this year, with the exception being Iowa State who I believe has a very good chance of making a deep run. However, between Baylor, Kansas, and Oklahoma, the Bears are by far the least impressive in terms of consistent play, and they lack a major aspect of tournament success: free throw shooting. Free throw shooting has been an Achilles’ heel for many teams in the tournament, as we saw with Memphis’ collapse in the 2008 title game. Baylor shoots 67% as a team from the line, and that is one of the lowest team percentages in the nation. With potential second round match up against Xavier (73%) or Ole Miss (77%), the Bears will be hard pressed to make the free ones in clutch situations, and they haven’t been able to do that all year long. Although they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams, a lot of those extra possessions result in free throws and if the Bears continue their trend of poor shooting, they will not be able to sustain a run in the tournament. With that said, I also don’t think that a 4th-place finish in the Big 12 is worthy of a 3-seed, as West Virginia finished with the same conference record and ended up with a 5 seed in Kentucky’s region. Beware the Bears.

#2 Virginia: This might be more of an unpopular decision, but the Cavaliers have a very difficult schedule and with the status of Justin Anderson uncertain, I think Iowa State made a much better candidate for the 2-seed. Virginia is the best defensive team in the country, and everyone always says that defense wins championships. However, they have lost 2 of their last 3 games and gave up 71 points to UNC in the conference tournament. One of the things that happens with defensive minded teams in the postseason is fatigue, and perhaps some of that began to show in the game against UNC. While Virginia should have no problem with Belmont in their first round, they could be facing a red-hot Michigan State team in the second round coached by the always dangerous Tom Izzo. If Anderson is healthy and dominant like he was at the beginning of the season, that will have a major impact on this team’s ability to make a run, but I believe that of the #2 seeds they have the highest chance of an exit before the Sweet Sixteen (yes, that includes Gonzaga).

Too Low

#10 Ohio State: I understand the committee’s thinking on this one: disappointing regular season, led by a freshman, doesn’t rebound the ball well. However, D’Angelo Russell is REALLY good. He’s shooting about 45% from the field, over 40% from 3, and he averages over 5 assists and rebound per game. And those numbers are over a season of work, not a few games. That sort of consistency is very uncommon among freshman, and if it weren’t for the spectacular talents of Jalil Okafor, I think Russell would be arguably the best freshman in the country. Although he doesn’t have any tournament experience, his team and his coach certainly do, and that experience means a lot when you actually take the court in March. Shaka Smart has his VCU Rams playing in the Big Dance for the third year in a row, but Thad Matta has been there in 8 of the last 9 seasons, and he knows how to win. Although they could face Arizona if they are able to upset VCU in the first round, I still believe this team has a lot of potential to ruin some brackets and end a few seasons if they are able to rally around their star player and their coach.

#5 Northern Iowa: They might be a mid-major team, but they can play. Seth Tuttle is one of the best players in the country, and this team play really good defense. They won 20 of their last 21 games, including a 17 game win streak, albeit in a relatively weak Missouri Valley Conference. However, they beat Iowa and Stephen F. Austin early in the season, took VCU to double overtime in a thriller, and they split the series against Wichita State. That leaves them with a winning record against other tournament teams, and proves that they can compete with major conferences. They face a tough first match up against Wyoming, a team I believe is very capable of pulling one of the not-so-rare 12-seed upsets, but if they are able to survive that game I can definitely see them giving Louisville a run for their money. This is a team coached by Ben Jacobson, who also happened to be the coach when UNI pulled an incredible upset over #1-ranked Kansas with help from this play by Ali Farokhmanesh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiwqEz50ipY. Keep an eye out for the Panthers.

#14 Albany: Had to plug the hometown team just a little bit. I’ll keep it short. The Great Danes are in the tournament for the 3rd consecutive season. They won a First Four match up last year before losing to Florida (although they did cover a 21-point spread…), and Peter Hooley is one of the best stories of the NCAAB season. Although they may not get an extended chance to display their potential on the national stage, they are a very solid defensive team and they deserve better than a 14-seed for 3 consecutive tournament berths. Keep an eye out for a double digit spread, and root for the upset!

 
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