Buy and Sell

During the last month of the regular season I wrote a weekly article on teams that were over valuded and teams underrated by the public. This is useful information because when a team is overvalued it leads to inflaighted lines by sportsbooks giving value to the cotrarian bettor. The same with a team scrutinized or faded by bettors leads to favorable lines in that teams favor. The idea is much like trading in the stock market. The goal to is buy a stock before it takes off (unknown or unfavorable team) and sell at the high point (high profile team consistently covering the spread) before the stock takes a dip. Here are the teams I believe are overrated and underrated in this years NCAAB tournament.

Overrated (Sell)

Michigan State – The Spartans are coming off a overtime loss in the Big 10 conference tournament to the eventual #1 seed in the west, Wisconsin. They ended the regular season in a three way tie for third place in the conference before making a run in the confrenece tournament and coming up short in the title game. The selection committee gave them the #7 seed in the East which is a little generous for a team that was inconsistent at best this year. The reason this team is overrated is their history. Casual bettors and “chalk chasers” will be all over this Michigan State team that has historically gone deep into the tournament with a top notch coach in Izzo. This is not your older brothers Michigan State team. They don’t have the same level of talent in years past and struggle to finish teams when they have a lead. They open verse a solid Georgia team that matches up well. If they are able to get past Georgia, Virginia awaits. I like Georgia to take out Michigan State in the first round (at least cover).

Wichita State – The Shockers were Cinderella team that continue to grow their program. They have now garnered the betting publics respect ending the season with the best record in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also won their last five games of the regular season and covered the spread in each of those contests as well.  Why I’m selling them is because the public still considers them a underdog, but the spreads don’t reflect that. They are a 7 seed in the Midwest region and open as 5.5 favorites over Indiana. They face a Indiana team that is battle tested playing in the Big 10 where six teams were chosen for the Tournament as opposed to the Missouri Valley Conference where there is a huge drop off after Wichita State and Northern Iowa. I expect Wichita State to struggle vs Indiana and possibly lose, before a potential match-up with Kansas.

Underrated (Buy)

Valparaiso – After having the best record in the Horizon league the Crusaders won their conference tournament last week. They finished the season with a 28-5 record and the seeding they received from the committee is the #13 seed in the Midwest? Look for the Crusaders to use that as motivation when they face Maryland in the opening round of the tournament. In addition they are a solid defensive team giving up an average of only 56.3 points a game, best in in conference and they travel well, giving up only 61.7 points on the road vs a Maryland team giving up 67.8 in away games. Not to mention Maryland struggles on the road while Valpo averaged 43.2% from the filed on road games and an amazing 40.2% from three point range. Good defense and ability to score on the road plus motivation are keys to a tournament run.

Butler – Having the 6th seed in the Midwest vs an 11 seed you would think Butler would be the favorite right? Wrong! Vegas opened the #11 seed Texas Longhorns as 1.5 point favorites over the higher ranked Bulldogs, and since the line opened it has been bet up to 2. The public is giving Butler and the Big East no respect. You have to keep an eye out for teams that everyone has wrote off so soon. Texas is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 verse the Big East. Texas also averaged -2.8 points per game on the road verse their opponents  this year, while Butler was 1 point better then their opposition. If you look deeper you see that Butler was actually much better then that but a late season blowout loss vs Xavier skewed the numbers. Texas three point percentage on the road was only 32.7% compared to 37% for Butler. If Butler can prove bettors wrong and beat Texas I like their chances vs another overrated team in Notre Dame.

That does it for this addition of Buy and Sell. As for my national champion pick I like Arizona to win the tournament. I believe they match up well vs Kentucky and play more as a team and will be the ones to take down the Wildcats in the Final Four. As always feel free to contact me on twitter @ccon8181 with any questions and lets have a solid tournament vs the books.

-Ccon the Sharp Contrarian

@ccon8181

 
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