Record YTD: 8-10

Baylor (-4) vs. West Virginia

I mentioned West Virginia as one of our teams to avoid as we progress into the NCAAB postseason. They simply are too inconsistent and the fatigue of playing a full court pressure system day in and day out will simply render them exhausted and ineffective in tournament play. Although they come into today’s matchup with Baylor with plenty of rest, I expect them to struggle. Baylor has plenty of capable ball handlers, like Kenny Chery and Royce O’Neale, and they rebound the ball at a startling rate of 39.6 per game, good for 8th in the NCAA. With Juwan Staten likely to miss another game for the Mountaineers, and Gary Browne still questionable, I predict that West Virginia will have immense difficulties in scoring the ball today against a very tough Baylor defense. Although they do have a talented front line in Jonathan Holton and Devin Williams, Holton will find himself in foul trouble trying to keep Rico Gathers off the glass and Williams has not shown the ability to be the go to scoring option for his team. Expect a low scoring affair that sees Baylor pulling ahead in the second half behind a double-double from Gathers to easily cover.

Louisville (+3) vs. UNC

Although Louisville has not exactly played up to their potential this season, I am shocked that they are being given points in this game. The dismissal of Chris Jones from the team amidst sexual assault allegations was surprising, but the Cardinals have rallied under Rick Pitino and have won 4 of their last 5, featuring a great performance that ended up with them handing Virginia it’s second loss of the season. In their two meetings this season, Louisville and UNC have split 1-1, with Marcus Paige scoring in the closing seconds in the first matchup and Louisville dominating an overtime segment in the second one. If you take into account that both of these games were so close, UNC played a tough Boston College team yesterday, and Kennedy Meeks will most likely miss the game due to an illness, it makes sense to lean Louisville today, even though it’s practically a home game for UNC. This is a great matchup to watch, but UNC has simply not been playing great basketball recently and fatigue will catch up with them today. I expect Montrezl Harrell to have another dominant performance and help Louisville to cover easily and perhaps even win this game outright.

Iowa State (-1.5) @ Texas

I put Iowa State down as one of my teams to trust this postseason, and I will stick to my guns as they take on the Longhorns tonight in the Big 12 Quarterfinals. The Cyclones have been playing great basketball to close out the regular season, winning 5 of their last 7 and only a scoring differential of -10 in their two losses. Georges Niang has finally showed some of the dominance that he displayed last season as a Point Forward, and he remains one of the more unique players in college basketball over the past few years. The question for Iowa State going into the NCAA tournament is defense, and I believe they have what it takes to stop a few teams. Jameel McKay is a monster in the defensive post, pulling down rebounds and blocking shots at an incredible clip for the minutes that he plays. Monte Morris is still one of the best point guards in the NCAA, with a assist/turnover ratio of 4.6, and he also averages almost 2 steals a game. Although their defense is questionable, their offense is simply amazing to watch, as Oklahoma learned too well during a 22-0 run that led Iowa State to one of their more improbable victories on the season. I believe this team will travel further than people expect in the tournament, and with Texas yet to notch a win against them this season I don’t believe they stand a chance tonight. I expect Iowa State to cover easily.

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