Record YTD: 4-6

This is the time of year where ranked teams like Ohio State need to be very careful playing lower tier conference teams such as Penn State, especially in the Nittany Lions last home game of the season. Penn State has given a lot of teams headaches this season, having played eleven conference games that have been decided by single digits, and all having been decided by an average of 5.2 points. 

The Nittany Lions have been a tough team to beat at home, especially against good teams, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs a team with a winning percentage above .600.  To make matters worse, the Buckeyes are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs a team with a home winning percentage of.600 or more.

Without a doubt the Buckeyes are the better team, but with Wisconsin being a look ahead game, Penn State hosting senior night and over 70% of the betting public supporting Ohio State, I believe it’s an opportunity to seek point value and fade the visitors. In addition, I’m expecting senior guard D.J. Newbill to live up to his “bobble head” night and give the home crowd one last game to remember. 

Consider: Penn State +5.5