College Hoops Picks for 2/28/15

College Hoops Picks for Saturday 2/28/15

Record: 17-13

We’ll keep it simple here and stick to four games, two in the SEC and two in C-USA. As always, feel free to comment below or reach out on Twitter @Smithers513. Good luck!

Missouri +14 @ Georgia

I am not in any way, shape, or form going to make an argument that Missouri is a good basketball team. But here’s a stat that can’t be argued: the underdog has covered in the last seven Georgia games. I’ve written before about how Georgia is a team that has an uncanny knack of playing to the level of their competition. This can be really good and also really bad. They gave Kentucky a test in Lexington, and covered as a double digit dog against Gonzaga earlier in the year, but they’ve also dropped games against some bad teams like Auburn and gotten swept by South Carolina. Because of their style of play, Georgia is rarely in position to blow teams out, with their largest margin of victory in SEC play being 12 points. Missouri is a team that I think many people could have easily predicted was going to be in a rough spot this year. However, they have demonstrated that they are capable of playing some good basketball, winning games over LSU, and most recently a comfortable win over Florida. Normally, you might want to look at a team like this and fade them off a win, but with a team like Missouri that is simply trying to carry momentum into the offseason, I think they gained some much needed confidence after the win over Florida. I am not by any means calling for an outright upset by I like the Tigers to hang around and cover the lofty number in Athens.

Alabama @ Vanderbilt -4.5

Vanderbilt has been in the headlines the last 24 hours, and not exactly for the right reasons, but I am going to get behind the Commodores here hosting Alabama in what I think is a great matchup for them. Bama had issues with Vandy the first go-round, losing by 8 on their home court. That game could have been uglier for the Tide had they not connected on 11 three pointers. The ‘Dores got to the line 35 times in that game and stand-out big man Damian Jones was a massive headache for the Tide getting 20 points and 7 boards. Alabama is a perimeter oriented team and that is simply a personnel mismatch for them that they have no answer for. Vanderbilt is a really young team this year and it’s easy to see why they’ve improved, and I think they get a chance to get an easy win Saturday going against an Alabama team that is 4-7 on the road this season. Add in the disadvantage of playing at Vanderbilt’s unique arena and I like the ‘Dores to cover the number at home.

Middle Tennessee @ UAB -4.5

If you haven’t been paying close attention to Conference USA, you might not know that UAB is probably playing the best basketball of any team in the conference right now. The Blazers have a ridiculous ATS record in conference play so far, and are 7-1 ATS at home in conference play. They still have some demons to exorcise on the road, but they have been an animal at home. Books are starting to adjust and take note of the Blazers’ surge, but I’m not so sure the market has. Add in the fact that it is Senior Day for UAB, and they still have a lot to play for being a game out of first place in the C-USA standings, and I feel confident in thinking we get a max effort performance from them. These two teams played earlier in the year in a game that UAB won on the road in Murfreesboro, and MTSU shot a dreadful 26% from the floor. The Blue Raiders took 26 three pointers in that game, and if they go with a similar philosophy on Saturday they might just get ran out of the gym. Swallow the points with the Blazers.

Old Dominion @ North Texas +5

Sticking in the C-USA, I’ll look to fade an Old Dominion team laying a couple possessions on the road, where their SU record is 4-6. Old Dominion at times has been considered the class of the C-USA but I’m not buying it, certainly not enough to even consider laying points on the road to a team in North Texas who have won their last five games in a row, and their last seven conference games at home. The Mean Green are really starting to play with some confidence during their current winning streak, and although I am not making a case that Old Dominion is a bad team by any means, I am going to get behind the team playing their best basketball of the year, hosting a team on one day’s rest in a conference play getting 5 points at home almost every time. Short and sweet, put the points in your pocket and back the Mean Green.