Now that we are in the final weeks of the college basketball season, there is solid value betting against public perception. Last week I gave out three teams to buy and three teams to sell. The three teams I suggested to sell (Arizona, Kansas, and Oklahoma) went a combined 1-5 ATS for the week. Like I advised the lines on these teams would be inflated giving us value betting against them. The teams that I gave a buy rating on (Stanford, Georgetown, Illinois) had a mere 2-2 ATS record combined. It can be difficult forecasting value a week out as we saw with Georgetown, who after beating Saint Johns by 22 points on 2/17  was listed as a 15 point favorite in their following game (No value). Feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ccon8181 with questions on whether there is still value on these teams once the lines have been released. Here are some of the teams I’m buying and selling this week:

SELL

#6 Villanova – The Wildcats have covered their last eight games. Yes eight! So why would I want to get in the way of this freight train? Three of their last four covers have been by two points or fewer, meaning vegas is dead on with these numbers and they will be adjusted a little more in Villaovas upcoming games in favor of the Wildcats opponents. This is to account for the added money being bet not only on a highly ranked team but also one that continues to put money in the pockets of bettors. Betting against Villinova with a scrappy Providence team and an Xavier team at home should be beneficial if the lines are even slightly inflated.

#13 Wichita State– The Shockers are 4-0-1 in their last five games. They have a trap game at Indiana State before hosting Northern Iowa. Witchita State will be heavily favored over Indiania State on he road and I expect them to be a slight favorite over Nothern Iowa in a game where points are at a premium. The Shockers are hit and miss on the road, either blowing teams out or barely winning as double digit favorites. I look to get an inflated line in their look ahead  game vs Inddiana State then give away points to Northern Iowa in a game that should be a pick em.

#14 Iowa State– The Cyclones have covered their last three games. Two of which they were slight underdogs in. Their ranking plus current win streak makes them attractive to bettors looking to ride them down the stretch as a favorite in the BIG 12. Bettors will consider these must win games for the Clyclones, and they might be, but betting against teams in must win situations has proven profitable. They host a strong Baylor team before going on the road to face a Kansas St team that is better then their record suggests.

BUY

Oklahoma St– The Cowboys have lost their last three games straight up as 2-4.5 favorites in each contest. With the public all over them vs lowly TCU they lost outright. In addition they needed a win vs West Virginia at home and lost in disappointing fashion. This team has talent but fails to put it together at times. They have seven days to get back on track following their last loss and I expact them to come out sharp and focused at home vs Texas tech.

Stanford– I know I had the Cardnals as a team to buy last week, and they did not disappoint. This team is really undervalued and I expect them to finish strong down the streach. They get an Oregon State team at home that dosent travel well plus this Stanford team is built to make a run. Very fundamentally sound, and athletic enough to play with anyone in the division. Bettors jumped off the Cardinals after they failed to cover five in a row but now is they time to ride them.

Minnesota– The Gophers were able to pull off a backdoor cover vs Wisconsin in their last game out but have lost their last three SU and 0-3 ATS in that stretch. One of those losses was as a 10.5 favorite at home vs Northwestern. This team has athletes but fails to get up for all their games. They have some time off before going to Michigan State for their next contest. They should be a decent size underdog for that game and I expect the Gophers to play better then they have. They are on bettors fade list right now and this team has enough talent that they can turn it around at any time. I like the value I’ll be getting with Minnesota in their next few games.

That’s all for this weeks edition of Value Betting. Lets have another solid week.

CCon the Sharp Contrarian

@ccon8181