YTD: 4-8

Baylor (-9) @ Texas Tech

Rico Gathers has been one of the most impressive stories of the Big 12 this season. When you look at his numbers, it is impossible to not see the potential that he has night in and night out. Averaging over 12 rebounds a game, almost 5.5 of those coming on the offensive glass, he is simply a monster on the low block and there is nobody who can match up with him. Texas Tech is a team that struggles to rebound the ball, a stat that should really allow Gathers to feast on the offensive glass. There is really very little to like about Texas Tech tonight. Sure, they’ve had a couple of impressive home wins over Iowa State and Kansas State, but on the whole their season has been very disappointing and we expect them to struggle against a tough Baylor team. If Tech can’t make shots tonight (and they’re shooting below 40% on the season), we expect this game to be a blowout in Baylor’s favor. We expect Baylor to dominate in the paint and hold Tech to 55 or fewer points as they cruise to a 7-6 record in the Big 12.

Michigan State (-5.5) @ Michigan

Michigan had a lot of potential when this season began, returning a bunch of tournament-experienced players. However, after a couple of shocking losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, this Wolverines team lost a lot of the hope that they’d come into this season with. That hope was further crushed after losing their best player in Caris LeVert. Since he went down, Michigan is just 2-5 and has really not shown the ability to hold a lead or close out a game down the stretch. Michigan State on the other hand is statistically one of the best teams in the country, although their record doesn’t necessarily reflect that. They’re in the top 75 in points per game, rebound per game, assists per game, and field goal percentage, and yet they are 3 games out of first place in the Big 10 and are unranked. They have struggled to win close games this year, but tonight we don’t think they will have to worry about that. Although Michigan played them close last time out, State managed to pull away by keeping Michigan scoreless in OT. Also without Derrick Walton Jr. tonight, expect the fatigue of a long season, and increased minutes for Zak Irvin and Spike Albrecht to cause Michigan to run out of gas in the second half. Michigan State will win this one easily on the shoulders of Branden Dawson and Denzel Valentine and will move into a 3-way tie for second place in the Big 10.