Down the stretch of the college basketball season is one the best times to find value betting against public perception. Public perception is engrained in bettors, which creates opportunity for those who know how to find it. Just like the stock market, the goal is to buy low and sell high. So here are some teams I’m buying and selling this week 2/17/15:

Sell

#7 Arizona Wildcats – They have covered 8 of their last 9 games, with their last victory being a 27 point win as a 16 point favorite as a visitor. Now I’m not claiming that they are going to fall apart and lose at home (where their next two games are played), but we should see inflated lines against two subpar teams in USC and UCLA. Vegas can’t set these lines high enough as bettors will be all over Arizona, who has shown it can run up the score.

#17 Oklahoma Sooners – Even off a loss to Kansas State the Sooners have covered 5 of their last 6. Bettors had been fading them mid-season and now are on the bandwagon with Oklahoma blowing out TCU and West Virginia in addition to a solid 11 point win over Iowa State. Granted the Sooners have an easy schedule this week, but it gets tougher down the stretch. You get value with Texas and Texas Tech, with the opportunity for the Sooners to be looking ahead.

#8 Kansas Jayhawks – Coming off 2 nice wins and covering 3 out of the last 4. They were due for a letdown. Had it tonight vs a West Virginia team that that was ready for them. This is a team poised for the tournament but struggles to put teams away from time to time. I look for them to slide a little before bouncing back strong.

Buy

Illinois Illini – After failing to cover vs Wisconsin getting 14 and getting a lucky cover needing OT vs Michigan, this is a team I want to buy down the stretch. They got Rayvonte Rice back from an injury the last two games and I expect them to gel this week. Plus they will be coming off a 7 day rest before their next game at home, where they covered 3 out of their last 4. They need to finish strong to grab the committee’s attention and I think they bring everything they’ve got.

Georgetown Hoyas – This is a quality team that has not lived up to expectations. Losing 2 out of their last 3 and going 1-2 ATS in that stretch. They are coming off a 7 day rest when they face St Johns next, it’s do or die for this team. Their next 2 games are at home and I would expect statement games from Georgetown.

Stanford Cardinals – Losers of their last 5 ATS and only winning 1 of those games SU, this is a Stanford team that has hit the skids. So did they all of a sudden just forgot how to play basketball? Not exactly. They had some bad breaks and ran into some teams that wanted it more. After a straight up loss to Colorado I look for them to bounce back with 2 winnable games at home vs Cal and Oregon ST. Spreads should be low and I like the Cardinal to get back in the Pac-12 mix.

When betting against public perception its best to consider teams that are just locked in on a roll and teams that have given up. Hard to tell sometimes but now you have a little more ammo going into this week. 

C-Con the Sharp Contrarian

@ccon8181