College Hoops Picks for 2/7/15
Saturday 2/7/15
YTD: 13-10
After going 3-2 last Saturday, it brings the season record to 13-10. (Please don’t remind me of the ending of the SLU-UMass game, that was one of the all-time worst beats I’ve ever had). As always, feel free to comment below or reach out on Twitter @Smithers513 with any questions. Good luck!
Kansas @ Oklahoma State +1.5
I was holding an Oklahoma State ticket several weeks ago when these teams met at Phog Allen, and it was one of the more frustrating games to watch that I’ve had all year. The game itself was awful to watch, with the play being very choppy due to 71 fouls. The Cowboys I thought played fairly well given the circumstances, but thanks to Kansas shooting 46 free throws, the game was put out of reach. To be fair, the Cowboys got to the line 25 times also, so it certainly wasn’t the determining factor in the game, but any time your opponent takes 21 more free throw attempts than you, it’s not a good recipe for success. Oklahoma State is a hard team to figure out at times, but this is one of the most heated rivalries in the Big 12 and I am confident we get the Pokes best effort Saturday. Both teams were atrocious shooting the ball in the first matchup, and Kansas did a good job of limiting good looks for Oklahoma State from beyond the arch, but I see this game playing out a little differently. I like Oklahoma State’s athleticism in matching up with Kansas, and if this game is officiated differently, and I really hope it is, I like the Cowboys to squeeze out a close win.
Wyoming @ Air Force +2
Can I get a little lettuce and tomato on my sandwich, please? I’ll get to why I like this matchup, but if you have capped college basketball successfully, the sandwich spot that Wyoming is in is a scenario that has definitely made you money over the years. After a big win over Colorado State Wednesday, Wyoming takes a quick trip to play Air Force before hosting San Diego State. The term “trap game” has become overly cliche over the years, but this is exactly where the term got its notoriety. Wyoming has been pretty solid this year, but on the road they haven’t been quite the same caliber of team. I think that is in part due to their defensive backbone. When you’re a team that relies on defense as a spark for your offense, (which is evidenced by Wyoming ranking 289th in ppg), it can be difficult to carry that defensive energy on the road. In their last two conference road games, Wyoming has lost to a mediocre Utah State team and grinded out a 3 OT win over a mediocre Fresno State team. Air Force isn’t lighting the world on fire, but they finally got their leading scorer back from injury in Max Yon, who gives them a really solid scoring presence and can fill it up consistently from deep, shooting over 40% from behind the arc. Yon is being eased back into things a bit, only playing 18 minutes in their win over New Mexico. But, I’m expecting a bigger workload from Yon tomorrow and I think he gives Air Force the confidence boost they need to cover the short number and hand Wyoming a loss.
Tennessee +7 @ Georgia
A few different factors have led me to playing the Vols here. To start, I think recency bias perception of these two teams has given a little too much line value in favor of the Vols. Most of the nation just saw Georgia play Kentucky tough in Rupp Arena, without their leading scorer, and on the Vols just got handed a loss at home to one of the worst teams in the SEC. But, in my opinion, the Tennessee loss to Mississippi State wasn’t as bad as it originally appears. Mississippi State is a little more equipped to handle UT’s pressure given they seem more comfortable playing like an AAU team, which I know seems a bit counterintuitive. However, I think Tennessee’s guards present a favorable matchup against UGA PG J.J. Frazier, who’s 5’10 height was an issue against Kentucky’s taller guards. If Marcus Thornton can’t go (he’s questionable based on what I’ve read as of right now), I really think the Vols could be a live dog in a bounceback spot.
VCU @ St. Bonaventure +3
I tweeted out that I was on the opener at 4.5 for the Bonnies, and I still like it at this number. With Treveon Graham doubtful, and the Rams playing their second game without their backbone Briante Weber, I think this is an awful spot for VCU. In my projections, I had the Bonnies as a small favorite factoring in the injuries. The Rams lost at home as a sizable favorite to Richmond last week, and gutted out a road win over a bad George Mason team. As if the loss to Weber wasn’t bad enough, I don’t know how the Rams react losing their leading scorer Graham for this one. St. Bonaventure is no world-class team by any means, so you won’t find me gushing about them here, but they rebound well, and given VCU’s propensity to look disjointed in the half-court offense, I like the Bonnies to get an outright win as a short home pup Saturday.
2 thoughts on “College Hoops Picks for 2/7/15”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Great picks and write-ups Adam. I have given out all these picks except Tennessee, but I don’t hate that game either. Top play for me will be Florida +8.5.
Good Luck Today!
Greg
Thanks Greg, I appreciate it. I hope Florida works out for you, but not the money line, ha. Should be a tough game.