It kills me to go against the Dawgs given I have been on them a lot this year and it’s been profitable given their 11-5-2 mark ATS, but too many angles I like to play go in South Carolina’s favor here. To start, UGA’s senior leader Marcus Thornton is going to miss the game tomorrow with a concussion he suffered in the game against Vanderbilt. Thornton is averaging 13.5 points and 7.3 boards a game, so his production is going to be sorely missed. The Bulldogs were already thin in the frontcourt with an injury to starting small forward Juwan Parker, who has missed five of the last six games. Sometimes, you can point to the absence of a key player as a reason to actually back a team, given the team can rally around each other and get a solid effort together. USC is dealing with a rash of concussions as well, but not as big of impact players as Thornton and Parker. However, I just think this is too big of a blow for Georgia going against one of the most physical teams in the SEC in South Carolina. South Carolina is off to an awful start in the SEC, going 1-6, but they’re schedule has been really tough to open, playing basically every top SEC team except Arkansas. Outside of a couple lopsided losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky, they’ve been within reach in every loss. Frank Martin teams are going to play a physical brand of basketball, and given Georgia’s thin depth and key losses, not to mention a game at Kentucky on deck, I like the Gamecocks to cover the short number.

If you succeed in handicapping any sport, you’re definitely aware of an angle that’s called the “Bounce-back Letdown.” And what we have here is a classic example of this when UMass heads to SLU. UMass is coming off a big win just Thursday night against Dayton, in a game they I think they matched up well in, and I am bearish on how I feel Dayton is going to finish down the stretch with their depth. On the other hand, SLU just got handed a loss by one of the league’s worst teams in George Mason, and now heads home and I expect a really strong effort for them. The Billikens were a really inexperienced team to start the year, but now I think they are starting to gel better and get an identity. UMass loves to push the tempo if they can and play through their guards, and SLU is going to try to do the exact opposite and force them to beat them in the half-court. If UMass can establish themselves in transition they could end up burying the Bills’ and I’ll look like an idiot, but I like the Bills to catch the Minutemen in a perfect spot and cover the short number at home.

You’ll very rarely, if ever, catch me laying points on the road, especially a heavy number. But in this game I probably would lay up to 20 points. This is just an awful scenario for Southern Miss. A few weeks ago Southern Miss was declared ineligible for postseason play, which didn’t have a huge bearing on the season given how bad the Golden Eagles are, but nonetheless it is a huge morale killer. With a couple of suspensions, Southern Miss is down to essentially just six D1 quality players. After a deflating blowout loss to an awful Marshall team, it is going to get ugly for an already super thin Southern Miss squad against a Western Kentucky team that loves to pressure and run, and is looking for some revenge after falling to Lousiana Tech handily. Southern Miss head coach Doc Sadler even said after Thursday’s loss to Marshall that his guys didn’t play with any emotion or energy. That is not a good recipe if they want to hang against one of the league’s best teams that will run them into the ground if they let them.

The Aggies have been a popular play for me the last few weeks, and I’ll go back to the well with them again this week when they head to San Diego to face the Aztecs. A lot of handicapping college basketball to me is being able to figure out the personality of a team. Utah State has shown this year that they can play with the top end talent in the MWC and are a team to be reckoned with. I’m afraid the market may start to catch up with the Aggies, given they are a very impressive 6-2 ATS, including 3-1 on the road, in conference play so far this season. SDSU has been laying big numbers at home this season, and deservedly so, but they haven’t been great ATS laying those numbers, going 1-3 ATS at home in conference play so far this season. I think a big reason to that can be attributed to the fact the Aztecs don’t play a style of basketball that really lets them run away from teams. Utah State is going to be ready to play Saturday and I think they’ll be able to handle the physicality of SDSU enough to get inside the double digits.

Murray State is a heck of a team, but if you watched Thursday night’s game against EKU, you’ll know that Murray was extremely fortunate to win that game, and it was more a product of EKU not being able to close the deal. Murray State has been able to beat a lot of teams this year because not many teams in the OVC are able to match them from an athletic standpoint and the Racers can overpower teams with their size and speed. However, EKU showed a bit of a blueprint to beating the Racers in their ability to stretch them defensively and make shots behind the arc, hitting 13. UT-Martin brings a similar offensive philosophy into this game, also being a team that likes to stretch defenses and is capable of hitting the 3, making 11-20 in a rout over Eastern Illinois on Thursday. UT-Martin finds themselves in second place in the OVC looking up at Murray State, and the Racers are coming off an emotional OT win on national television over one of their biggest rivals. If the Racers are content in any way and come out flat at all, they could find themselves staring at a quick deficit much like they did against EKU. Either way, I like the Skyhawks to cover the lofty number.