Today’s guest post comes to us from Brandon @vegaslinebeater. Brandon expands on our previous discussion of game filters. 

This is a subject we have discussed on several occasions for college football, and Brandon adds some good insight and ideas for everyone to consider when looking for CBB games to handicap and wager on throughout the season. 

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College Basketball is one of the most enjoyable sports to handicap. Unlike the NBA, it is always exciting, it features defense, and it culminates in March Madness, which I believe is the best championship to watch among all sports.

Every game is played with heart and passion, and some people think that that makes it difficult to predict the outcome. However, I actually believe that makes handicapping college basketball games more predictable.

One of the reasons most people have so much difficulty handicapping CBB is that they are simply overwhelmed by the number of games. Any good CBB capper will know the importance of trimming down the number of games to choose from.

Conference Strength & Avoiding Mid-Majors

One of the best ways to reduce the number of games on the schedule is to take a look at the conferences of the two teams (Note: this is only for the regular season).

Once conference play starts, any teams involved in inter-conference play should be avoided, as they will usually not be as motivated to win those games. This will cut out a few games here and there.

However, the main reason to look at conferences is to assess the quality and consistency of play.

I avoid capping games that involve mid-majors because it is difficult to get enough good information on the teams to make an informed decision. There is a reason the players went to a mid major rather than an elite school, and generally it’s because they aren’t consistent enough.

Although we all love stories like Davidson and VCU, in the regular season I advise you to ignore all games that don’t feature two teams from a power conference.

Large Spreads

Another primary method I use for cutting down on the number of games in consideration is to throw out any game with a spread of over 13 points. Large spreads are simply too hard to predict.

At any point, an underdog can play above their imagined potential, or a favorite can have a bad game.

Another major concern is that the favorite can build up a 20 point lead and remove their starters, a result that often ends up with the favorite being unable to cover the spread.

As a rule of thumb, don’t consider any game with a spread of 13 or more.

Game Selections

Usually, rooting out inter-conference play, mid majors, and spreads over 13 points will significantly reduce the games on a daily card. Now we get to how to choose which team you want.

The three main attributes to look at here are rebounding, depth, and free throw shooting. It’s rare to see a team with all three, but a team that has two of those attributes is generally a good bet.

Rebounding – Think about the importance of rebounding as it both limits opposition to one shot and provides the rebounding team with extra possessions. This can help a team that shoots poorly from the field beat a team shooting 50%, simply because the poor shooting team gets more chances and more possession!

Depth – Depth is rather obvious, it is better to not rely on one player. When you have 6 or 7 guys who can get it done on any given night, you’re in a very competitive position in college basketball.

Free Throw Shooting – Finally, free throw shooting can be the factor that makes or breaks a team. We saw that in the NCAA Championship game when D-Rose’s Memphis team couldn’t buy a free throw in the closing minutes and ended up losing to Mario Chalmers and Kansas.

In close games, especially games that have a 5 or 6 point spread, free throw shooting and late fouls can often determine whether a team is going to cover or not.

In Summary

College Basketball is not the easiest sport to win at. However, it is not impossible. By sticking to power conferences, avoiding large spreads, and finding teams that consistently display at least two of the attributes we mentioned, it is possible to turn a profit in CBB.

Below are a few teams I feel exemplify the attributes mentioned above.

Iowa State: 6-7 guys can score 10+ PPG on a given night. Solid rebounders in the front court.

Duke: Great rebounders. Great free throw shooters. 3-4 players will score 10 PPG.

Texas: Great rebounders. Multiple scoring options. Decent team FT %.