In last week’s preview, we talked about how Ohio State’s stats vs. Alabama represented “the boxscore of a champion” because of advantages at the point of attack, in third down conversions, and defense (holding Alabama well below its norms). We also talked about how Oregon’s blowout of Florida State wasn’t representative of what’s normally considered championship style football because champions don’t allow over 500 yards…and there haven’t yet been any “fast break” champions yet who play that emerging style. 

When Ohio State met Oregon for the National Championship Monday Night, those realities held true. Fast break football still hasn’t won a championship. Teams who can control the point of attack on both sides of the ball have a better chance to control their own destiny.  

CHAMPIONSHIP STATS

Final Score: Oregon 20, Ohio State 42

Yardage: Oregon 465, Ohio State 538

Yards-per-Play: Oregon 6.5, Ohio State 6.4

Third Downs: Oregon 17%, Ohio State 53%

Turnovers: Oregon 1, Ohio State 4 

Ohio State was fortunate to have dodged a potential turnover debacle. But, it’s important to note that Oregon had a pair of “virtual” turnovers when they failed on fourth down tries. Those failures “turned the ball over” even if they don’t go into the boxscores as “turnovers.” One came very near the Ohio State goal line, taking points off the scoreboard. One came in the final moments of game action and set up the last OSU touchdown. The “real world” impact of the category was more like 4-3 rather than 4-1. 

What’s amazing to me is how similar that boxscore is to Ohio State/Alabama. It’s like the Buckeyes played the same exact game twice! 

• Ohio State scored 42 points in both

• Ohio State gained 537 yards in one, 538 yards in the other

• Ohio State rushed for 281 yards in one, 296 yards in the other

• Ohio State passed for 256 yards in one, 242 yards in the other

• Ohio State converted 56% of third down tries in one, 53% in the other

• Ohio State only allowed 15% on third downs in one, 17% in the other

• Ohio State suffered three turnovers in one, four in the other

• Ohio State’s “scoring by half” was 20-22-21-21 

And, they weren’t facing Illinois and Indiana! Ohio State just utterly dominated what were perceived to be the two best college football teams in the nation entering the postseason. They did that to the #1 and #2 seeds in the tournament on neutral fields. 

Let’s do a two-game boxscore from the Buckeyes’ perspective… 

 

CHAMPIONSHIP STATS PART II

Final Scores: Superpowers 55, Ohio State 84

Yardage: Superpowers 872, Ohio State 1,075

Rushing Yards: Superpowers 302, Ohio State 577

Third Downs: Superpowers 4 of 25 (16%), Ohio State 18 of 33 (55%)

Turnovers: Superpowers 4, Ohio State 7 

Ohio State held the Alabama and Oregon juggernauts to 4 of 25 on third downs! They completely owned the point of attack with +275 rushing yards. And, they weren’t catching turnover breaks in a way that created misleading scores. The scoreboards told the story. 

There’s some chatter in handicapping circles that the market would still have Oregon and Alabama favored over Ohio State in rematches. That could very likely be true because the market is notoriously slow to react to new realities. But, given what has historically worked in championship football showdowns at both the college and pro levels, it’s very clear that Ohio State with Cardale Jones is a true multi-dimensional force. You can’t fake that twice in a row…particularly when it came on the heels of the obliteration of Wisconsin (a team that won its New Year’s Day bowl). If Ohio State wouldn’t be favored in rematches with Oregon and Alabama, that’s a weakness in the market. 

It was funny hearing so many fans and followers of the sport talk about how it was great not to have an SEC team playing in the championship game. Well, YOU DID! Ohio State hired a two-time SEC champion to be its head coach. He recruited better athletes, helped bulk them up a little, and taught them how to thrive in the most important categories. Ohio State is now playing SEC style football. 

See anything familiar in Meyer’s win for Florida over Ohio State back in January of 2007? 

• Florida beat Ohio State 41-14 (as the underdog)

• Florida outgained Ohio State 370-82

• Florida was 10 of 19 on third downs for 53%

• Florida held Ohio State to 1 of 9 on third downs for 11%

• Florida won rushing yardage 156-47 

Own the point of attack, move the chains, force punts, lift a trophy. Ohio State’s championship doesn’t represent a “resurgence” of the Big 10. It represents a Big 10 power purchasing and relocating SEC-style football to Columbus. It worked! 

Moving forward, it seems like the sport is locked into a tug-of-war between the fast break style that can improve a program but not win a national championship… versus the more classic style of play where the point of attack still determines a champion. The best from both styles will keep banging heads in the postseason. For now, only one approach wins championships. 

Thanks for reading these midweek reports all season. Greatly appreciate the chance to contribute to The Saturday Edge!

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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