Did ‘Bama’s Blake Sims Have a Better Season than Heisman Winner Marcus Mariota?

That’s the premise of an article that was posted at Deadspin on the day the Heisman Trophy was awarded to Marcos Mariota of Oregon. Veteran author Allen Barra summed it up this way:

[box] “The phrase “body of work” has become popular this college football season when discussing national championship and Heisman Trophy contenders, so I’ll use it here: Blake Sims’ body of work has been more outstanding than any other quarterback in the country, including Marcus Mariota, who will win the Heisman Trophy in a landslide.”[/box]

To say that’s a minority sentiment is an understatement. Hadn’t heard anyone else even try to make such a case. Deadspin noted beneath the article that Barra (who was born in Birmingham, Alabama) wrote “The Last Coach, A Life of Paul Bear Bryant.” That does shed some light on potential bias. But, analytics, when used properly, should be immune to severe bias. Does Barra’s assertion hold water? Or, is this an example of an author using statistics the way a lawyer would to make a case…rather than the way a judge would to make a ruling?

Barra’s article does present some key stats that favor Mariota. Among those shown in a graphic…

Passing Yardage: Mariota 3773, Sims 3250

Completion Percentage: Mariota 68%, Sims 65%

TD/Interception ratio: Mariota 38/2, Sims 26/7

Barra then says:

[box] “Mariota had more yards rushing (669 to 321)…I’m not denying that Mariota’s stats are more impressive, but are they so much better than Sims’ numbers that the question of which teams they were compiled against is irrelevant?”[/box]

First, tossing away rushing yardage in a parenthetical is disingenuous because Mariota is a multi-dimensional weapon who makes a lot of plays with his legs. Sims is a great athlete who will occasionally make some plays that way as well. That needs to be a main part of the discussion. Plus 348 additional yards over 13 games isn’t incidental. Let’s add them in, then also include rushing TD’s and lost fumbles to arrive at a more accurate up front picture.

Passing + Rushing Yardage: Mariota 4442, Simms 3571

Total TDs/Total Giveaway Ratio: Mariota 52/5, Simms 32/10

Mariota had 14 rushing touchdowns and three lost fumbles. Simms had six rushing touchdowns and three lost fumbles. That makes Mariota’s TD/TO ratio of +47 significantly higher than the +22 of Simms. His efforts were credited for 871 more yards from scrimmage.

Secondly, why would Barra think that voters and other analysts were completely ignoring strength of schedule issues? It’s widely understood that Alabama was in a killer division and played a tougher schedule. But, it’s possible to account for that….and still pick Mariota. We just saw that Mariota’s raw production advantages were huge if you don’t throw rushing yardage into parenthesis and ignore rushing touchdowns!

[box] “…but are they so much better than Sims’ numbers that the question of which teams they were compiled against is IRRELEVANT?”[/box]

I put the straw man in caps. No, they’re so much better that Mariota still wins even if you consider who they were compiled against. Asking if they were fairly considered might have been fair game.

I’m not the biggest fan of ESPN’s “Total QBR” stat. Calling it “total” is arrogant and false given that it doesn’t account for the impact of weather on a game, or the skill sets of a quarterback’s teammates (among myriad other issues). A word like “total” tells you it was created by a brand trying to market itself. But, the metric does take passing and rushing production into account while trying to adjust as accurately as possible for strength of opposition.

ESPN’s “Total QBR”

Mariota 91.9

Simms 88.4

Analytics has an approach that does account for opponent strength, and that approach still favors Mariota.

Final point. Barra mentions that Alabama has a fantastic wide receiver in Amari Cooper. That’s the Crimson Tide player who was invited to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony as the biggest weapon on the team (1656 receiving yards). Did having an NFL caliber receiver help pad the stats of Sims?

51% of Sims’ passing yardage (3250) came from his best receiver (1656)

22% of Mariota’s passing yardage (3773) came from his best receiver (814)

Byron Marshall’s 814 receiving yards led a group of Duck receivers, none of who were as potent as Cooper. If you use “body of work” when evaluating a quarterback for a big award, you have to make sure you’re focusing on the things that QB actually does. Don’t give him credit in a debate for ALL the yards gained by an NFL receiver. Yes, Mariota was helped by “yards after catch” from his receivers too (Marshall is a running back after all, but the next six Ducks receivers in yardage totals were wide receivers or the tight end). He wasn’t throwing to anyone like Cooper. Slightly more than half of Simms’ yardage came on passes to one superstar.

Sims may still be the quarterback that gets to hoist the National Championship trophy at the end of the season. That would be a great addition to his body of work. At the time Heisman Trophy voting was conducted, the multi-dimensional Mariota had established individual superiority even after you adjust for schedule strength according to voters, ESPN’s “Total QBR” metric, and…conceivably almost every college football observer but Barra.

Back with you next Wednesday to review stats from the first batch of bowl games, and look ahead to some of the better matchups in Week Two of the college football postseason.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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