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Is Alabama Really the Best Team in the Nation?

Is Alabama Really the Best Team in the Nation?

Its recent win over Mississippi State pushed the Alabama Crimson Tide up to the #1 spot in the weekly poll released by the championship tournament selection committee. ‘Bama will try to hold onto that spot and the top seed in the brackets this Saturday in the Iron Bowl at home against Auburn…and then again in the SEC Championship game December 6 in Atlanta.

Is Alabama really the best team in the nation? Las Vegas oddsmakers have been vocal about how the Tide would be favored over anyone they faced in the tournament. And, head coach Nick Saban certainly has a championship pedigree given the trophies hoisted after the 2009, 2011, and 2012 seasons. Yet…

*The overtime win at LSU should have been a loss. It was a borderline miracle that Alabama survived the night. LSU had the ball deep in Crimson Tide territory in the final minutes of a tie game. A poorly timed 15-yard penalty on LSU for unsportsmanlike conduct forced a field goal. The ensuing kickoff was yanked out of bounds. That’s a penalty that gave ‘Bama good field position from which to flip the result. LSU lost that game more than Alabama won it.

  • That would have been a second loss, because Alabama fell at Ole Miss 23-17 after disappearing in the second half (Tide lost the last two quarters 20-3). 
  • It’s easy to forget the 14-13 win at Arkansas, where the Tide had to score a fourth quarter TD to survive getting outgained 335-227.

This is not the stuff of champions!

Yes, Alabama did obliterate Texas A&M in very impressive fashion, and had that memorable afternoon against Florida when they gained 672 yards. But, if you throw them into a “superleague” with all the other top teams, how many nailbiters are they going to survive? Can you confidently state that Alabama is better right now than everyone else? Should we listen to oddsmakers who have consistently overpriced Alabama all season?! ‘Bama is just 3-8 against the spread in its first 11 games, checking in as one of the most overrated market teams in the country.

The best of Saban’s recent squads would play occasional nailbiters. They wouldn’t string them together. What’s different about the 2014 team that’s making them so vulnerable so often? A quick glance at some key stats help paint the picture. Here’s what Alabama has done in yards-per-play offense, yards-per-play defense, and turnover differential beginning with their first Saban championship in 2009…

Alabama’s Recent Yards-per-Play and Turnover Differential

2009: 6.0 on offense, 4.1 on defense, +19 turnover differential (Champs)

2010: 7.0 on offense, 4.6 on defense, +11 turnover differential

2011: 6.5 on offense, 3.3 on defense, +8 turnover differential (Champs)

2012: 7.0 on offense, 4.2 on defense, +14 turnover differential (Champs)

2013: 7.2 on offense, 4.8 on defense, +2 turnover differential

2014: 6.6 on offense, 4.3 on defense, -1 turnover differential

Those first four teams were strong across the board, but particularly great at forcing turnovers. The defenses were constantly setting up cheap points or scoring themselves because of an aggressive ball-hawking attack that intimidated opponents. Either the SEC adjusted, or the players have become less aggressive. But, that has disappeared the last two seasons. Last year’s team had to settle for the Sugar Bowl, where they were embarrassed by Oklahoma. This year’s team is still in the process of determining its final fate.

Avid watchers of college football know that Alabama isn’t passing the eye test this year in terms of their typical recent form. The chart provides some hints as to why.

How 2014 Measures Up

Offensive YPP: #4 out of six years

Defensive YPP #4 out of six years

Turnover Differential: #6 out of six years

A strong team, yes. But, not the truly dynamic force that Alabama has been putting on the field in recent seasons. That’s likely to matter at least once between now and the trophy ceremony on Monday night January 12.

Some misleading scores from last Saturday…

  • Miami was more competitive in its “flat spot” loss at Virginia than the 30-13 final score made it seem. The Cavaliers only won yardage 341-327. Miami kept shooting itself in the foot with two turnovers, two failed fourth down conversions, and a missed field goal. Don’t let the final score of that game influence your assessments of the teams too much.
  • Maryland’s 23-16 win over Michigan was more about Michigan making mistakes rather than Maryland playing well. The host Wolverines won total yardage 398-312, but lost turnovers 1-0, went 1 of 3 on fourth down tries (two additional “virtual” turnovers) and missed a field goal. Michigan actually led 16-9 entering the fourth quarter, but now must beat Ohio State to become bowl eligible in what will surely be Brady Hoke’s final season as head coach.
  • If you didn’t watch the startling 30-0 shutout of Mississippi by Arkansas, you may not be aware that yardage was almost even! Ole Miss won total yardage 316-311, but turned the ball over SIX times. One of those was an interception that was returned by Arkansas for a touchdown. Mississippi was also 0 for 2 on fourth downs, resulting in two more “virtual” turnovers. The Hogs have shown clear and dramatic improvement this season, but they didn’t play nearly as well as that 30-0 final score makes it seem. The Arkansas offense only managed 4.6 yards-per-play and converted just 27% of third down tries.
  • Arizona State’s 52-31 win over Washington State was also turnover fueled. Amazingly, the losing road underdog won total yardage 622-330! But, Wazzou lost the turnover battle 5-0. Yards-per-play was more reasonable at 6.2 to 5.4 for the visitors. WSU ran 100 offensive plays compared to 61 for ASU. Field position advantages helped Arizona State score on TD drives of 13, 18, 38, and 30 yards. A lot of cheap points for the Sun Devils in their last two home games against Washington State and Notre Dame.

See you again next Wednesday.


Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligenceYou can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.


 

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