Did the Scores Tell the Story in Saturday’s Showcases?

Did the Scores Tell the Story in Saturday’s Showcases?

This past Saturday was called “Survival Saturday” in the media, with six games matching teams who were rated in the top 17 of the tournament selection committee’s poll entering the weekend. The losers would have no shot to reach the Final Four. Not with a prominent November blemish added to resume’s that already had at least one loss each. The winners were still in the discussion with more work to do.

You know the final scores. Did the scores tell the story? Let’s run some numbers from the biggest college football Saturday so far this season. I’ll present the recaps in the order the games ended.

Baylor 48, Oklahoma 14

Did the score tell the story?: It may have overstated things a bit…because Baylor isn’t 34 points better than Oklahoma in Norman as a general rule. But, it was definitely a clean blowout…and Oklahoma was clearly exposed once again as a team that consistently gets outmatched against top opposition. Will the market ever learn? OU was a 6-point favorite, but got outgained 544-319, outscored on drives of 60 yards or more 31-7, and out-converted on third downs 44% to 31% while also failing on two fourth down tries and missing a field goal. Instead of rallying from behind on its home field after trailing 24-14 at the half, the Sooners lost the second half 24-0. A pretender re-exposed.

National impact: Baylor entered the game #12, and established itself as being at least worthy of Final Four consideration if they can take out Kansas State and win the Big 12. Oklahoma’s #15 seems way off the mark (though Jeff Sagarin’s computer ratings at USA Today inexplicably had them at #4 entering the game). This is now losses to Baylor, Kansas State, and TCU for the Sooners, who were also outgained 482-232 by Texas in Dallas. (How could Sagarin have them FOURTH last week?!).

Arizona State 55, Notre Dame 31

Did the score tell the story?: NO! But, this was such a bizarre story that no score could tell it. Arizona State raced ahead on a slew of cheap points. It was 31-3 four minutes into the second quarter, with ASU enjoying offensive TD drives of 13 and 23 yards along with a pick six defensively. Notre Dame would rally all the way back to trail just 34-31 with 6:37 left in the game. Arizona State had a clutch 75-yard drive to go back ahead by 10…then had another pick six and then an 8-yard TD drive in the final minute. Notre Dame would win total yardage 487-412, but ASU made the most of a 5-1 turnover differential. Perhaps if they played in South Bend, it would have been the other team suffering the turnover debacle.

National impact: Arizona State was #9 entering this one with only one loss…and that was in a game their starting QB missed against UCLA. That’s an extenuating circumstance that could loom larger as more teams ahead of them lose. For example, FSU would have received consideration if they had suffered a loss to Clemson in the game Jameis Winston missed. ASU has additional chances to impress against Arizona, and then in the Pac 12 championship game against Oregon if they keep winning. Their soft ’14 schedule means they must win out.

TCU 41, Kansas State 20

Did the score tell the story?: Yes, TCU was in control the whole way. The Frogs won total yardage 533-410, rushing yardage 334-34, and it took a garbage time TD from K-State to make it that close.

National impact: Potentially none without some help…potentially huge because it will be hard for anyone to leapfrog TCU given the Frogs’ current impressive form. They have the two worst teams in the Big 12 on their remaining schedule (Kansas and Iowa State), as well as a Thanksgiving Night game at Texas. The Frogs are positioned to be knocking on the door the loudest if somebody in front of them loses. Their wins have been stellar. The loss at Baylor took a near-miracle for them to lose. If they get in…this was the win that got them in.

Alabama 20, LSU 13 (in overtime)

Did the score tell the story?: Classic SEC slobberknocker, that LSU absolutely blew in the final moments. So, the low scoring regulation score of 13-all helped tell that story. But, it also hinted very strongly at a deeper story suggesting that neither quarterback knows what to do vs. a good defense. Blake Sims of Alabama was 13-37-0-124 before the last gasp final drive where LSU backed off too much. Give the youngster credit for producing in the hurry-up drill and in overtime. Anthony Jennings of LSU was a woeful 8-26-1-76. Weather wasn’t a factor. And, these defenses aren’t THAT good. Many in the markets were rating Alabama as the true #1 in the country. Stats show they didn’t approach that level of excellence in regulation as road favorites at Ole Miss or LSU.

National impact: Alabama was helped by the upset of Auburn (which we’ll get to in a moment), and now controls its destiny for making the brackets. They play #1 Mississippi State next week, Auburn not long thereafter, and then would have to win the SEC Championship game to seal the deal if the W’s continue.

Ohio State 49, Michigan State 37

Did the score tell the story?: Yes. And, the name of that story was “Michigan State Was a Pretender.” The double digit loss at Oregon was understandable because the Ducks are great and that’s a tough place to play. Losing this badly at home in the most important conference game of the season? Ridiculous. Great performance from the Buckeyes, who are still trying to make everyone forget the Virginia Tech debacle. Ohio State totaled 568 yards even while sitting on a bit fourth quarter lead. They were 10 of 14 on third down tries, and had six touchdowns on drives of 64 yards or more.

National impact: Michigan State falls out of consideration. Ohio State will have trouble getting close enough to the door to knock because their strength of schedule is so soft the rest of the way. Now…there may be backdoor politicking to get Ohio State into the mix. Heck, Urban Meyer will do a lot of front door politicking. He’s hammering a sign into the committee’s front yard right now and will begin robo-calling after the Minnesota game this Saturday. On paper, this should eliminate the Big 10 from the Final Four. Note that the eventual Big 10 champion doesn’t go to the Rose Bowl this year. That game will serve as one of two national semi-finals. Ohio State will get popular at-large consideration for a major bowl appearance if they win out.

Oregon 51, Utah 27

Did the score tell the story?: No. Oregon won yardage 508-440, but lost yards-per-play 6.5 to 6.4 and third down conversions 33% to 31%. You probably know about the 14-point turnaround where Utah should have scored a TD but handed one to the Ducks instead. That was part of a 4-1 turnover decision for the Ducks. Oregon is more explosive and the superior team, but they weren’t nearly as dominant as the score makes it seem.

National impact: The Ducks avoid stepping in a pothole, and have solidified their grip on a Final Four bid thanks to some help elsewhere. Toughest test left will be the Pac 12 Championship game played on the San Francisco 49ers new home field in a few weeks.

Shocking Bonus: Texas A&M 41, Auburn 38!!!

Did the score tell the story?: NO! As is typically the case when a favorite of more than three TD’s loses, turnovers played a big role here. Auburn won total yardage 582-453, but lost the turnover category 3-1, including two critical (and virtually inexplicable) fumbles in the final moments…and also had a field goal attempt blocked and returned for a TD. Auburn won rushing yardage 363-176 and third down conversions by a commanding 64% to 40%.

National impact: SEISMIC…as the team entering the week at #3 fell to the wrong side of the bubble…knowing that they must still beat Alabama and Georgia, and get the cascade of help it would take to put a 2-loss team into the Final Four.

Wouldn’t it be great if all college football Saturdays were this loaded with drama and importance? At least there’s plenty of drama still ahead.

See you again next Wednesday.

Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.