For Your Consideration: Week # 11

Minnesota is coming off a disappointing loss to Illinois as 4 point favorites.  Now the Gophers sit tied at second in the Big 10 west.  With Iowa, Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin left to play, this will be the last time this season they are favorites.  If there’s ever a chance to play in the Big 10 championship game they will need to beat the Hawkeyes at home first.  But there’s good news….

The Gophers are coming off a bye, where they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. Minnesota has been banged up, so the extra days should be welcomed with open arms.

Normally I toss out the revenge factor when rivals face each other, but this is a little different.  With Jerry Kill getting time to prepare and look over tape of last year’s BAD defeat, I believe this will work as an advantage to get players extra focused and motivated to play determined football.  But I know, I can’t just bet a game based on byes and revenge so here are some other stats to help with my discombobulated thinking.

• Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 40+ points in their previous game and…

• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

• Gophers are 8-2 in their last 10 conference games.

• Gophers are averaging over 200 yards rushing per game.

This game is right in my wheelhouse, when considering it’s at home and off a bye. And I like the mindset of the players too.  Gopher’s starting QB Mitch Leidner said, “I’m looking forward to it a ton…one of the best feelings in the world is to run over there and hoist that jug up”.   I think Minnesota is the right side.

Consider: Minnesota PK

Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.