For your consideration: Week # 9
Mississippi State is 6-0 this season and they have earned their #1 ranking, after going through their first wave of SEC games. Now, after a bye, they get an embarrassed Kentucky team which was crushed by LSU last week. But, is a bye week really what the Bulldogs needed? I believe not. It gives players more time to walk around campus being praised and treated like royalty, while they dream of being national champions and signing NFL contracts.
Meanwhile, the exact opposite is happening 500 miles north in Lexington, KY. The Wildcats just…practice, practice, practice and try to redeem the humiliating loss.
To put this in not so many words, this is a horrible spot for the Bulldogs. When a team is playing as well as Mississippi State, the last thing you want is a bye on the schedule to kill the momentum, leaving players to think it over.
I expect Kentucky to be very focused and ready for this Homecoming game, where they are 5-0 this season at home. Here are some key angles that have my attention:
- Only 4 other teams in the country have more interceptions than Kentucky.
- The Wildcats are 15th overall in passing defense.
- Undefeated (5-0 or better) road teams are 28-50 ATS after a bye and…
- They’re 17-40 ATS when road favorites of more than 2 points.
- UK is avenging a loss from last year, which they had a legit chance to win.
Mississippi State is in uncharted territory, being #1 ranked. Not many (including me) thought they would be in this position midway through the season. This game will be a test for them, and to overlook the Wildcats could be very costly. As you read above, unbeaten road teams coming off a bye have not fared well in the past. I like Kentucky to keep this game close.
Consider: Kentucky +14.5
Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.
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