The Most Misleading College Football Score EVER!

If you were paying close attention to college football this past Saturday, you probably know which game I’m talking about. The Missouri Tigers beat Florida 42-13 despite gaining only 119 yards of total offense! It was one for the history books to be sure. But, it’s also a potential stumbling block for handicappers who let final scores overshadow the true sum of events in a game.

Missouri’s special teams (a kickoff return TD and a punt return TD) and defense (a fumble return TD and an interception return TD amidst stellar play across the board) have a lot to be proud of. Though, they aren’t likely to ever combine for that many points within 60 minutes again. Missouri’s offense continues to be in real trouble. And, that’s true even if you mentally “pencil in” additional yards for the drives they never got to have because defense and special teams were scoring for them.

First, a few basics…

MISSOURI’S OFFENSIVE MISERY

Missouri gained 119 yards

Missouri averaged only 2.4 yards-per-play (119 yards on 49 offensive plays)

Missouri quarterback Maty Mauk was only 6-18-1-20 in the air

Missouri only converted 5 of 14 third down tries for 36%

It’s not like a juggernaut was being kept on the sidelines because of all the fluke points. When Missouri’s offense did try to run plays, they had trouble going anywhere. Here’s a look at their drives as listed on ESPN’s drive chart…

MISSOURI’S OFFENSIVE DRIVES

3 plays, for negative 3 yards and a punt

3 plays, for 8 yards and a punt

4 plays, for 19 yards and a touchdown

18 plays, for 55 yards and a field goal

3 plays, for 4 yards and a punt

4 plays, for negative 11 yards and a field goal

3 plays, for 7 yards and a punt

3 plays, for negative 7 yards and a punt

6 plays for 24 yards and a punt

3 plays for negative 5 yards and a punt

One sustained drive all day, and that bogged down for a field goal after a whopping 18 plays of low yardage production. What did “losing” four drives mean for the offense? If you assume that “the middle four” drives of the afternoon represent a best guess for typical production, then the low-to-high number line would suggest what was missed is in parenthesis:

-11, -7, -5, (-3, 4, 7, 8), 19+, 24, 5

Maybe Missouri would have exploded given more chances. Or, maybe they would have gone backwards more often. What settled around the median suggests only about 16 additional yards. It would have taken two good drives to make a run at 200 total yards…and 200 is still a bad number.

Note that Missouri only gained 147 yards the week before in a 34-0 loss at home to Georgia. This was a continuation of incompetence! Mauk’s passing line was 9-21-4-97, meaning he’s 15-39-5-117 passing the last two weeks against conference foes. Overmatched is an understatement.

Missouri’s offense is struggling badly of late, meaning that 42 on last week’s scoreboard is about as misleading as it gets. Their schedule does soften a bit from this point forward. How will they move the ball against these defenses…after offensive debacles against the #13 ranked defense of Florida, and the #16 ranked defense of Georgia?

STILL AHEAD FOR MIZZOU

Saturday vs. Vanderbilt (#77 in total defense)

November 1 vs. Kentucky (#40 in total defense)

November 15 at Texas A&M (#83 in total defense)

November 22 at Tennessee (#19 in total defense)

November 28 vs. Arkansas (#55 in total defense)

RECENT PRODUCTION VS. MEDIOCRITY

Missouri scored 21 points on 280 yards at #82 South Carolina (Mauk 12-34-0-132)

Missouri scored 27 points on 503 yards vs. #104 Indiana (Mauk 29-48-1-331)

Mauk should have more time to get his bearings from this point forward. But this offense has a lot of work to do.

A few other misleading final scores from this past Saturday…

• Kansas State beat Oklahoma 31-30, while getting outgained 533-385. Many of you probably watched this one, and know that Oklahoma had a PAT blocked, missed two field goals (including a very short one that should have won the game in the final moments), and threw a TD pass to K-State to set the tone for a day of miscues. K-State did win yards-per-play 7.0 to 6.8 though, so it’s not like the road dog was outclassed at the point of attack.

• Duke beat Virginia 20-13, while getting outgained 465-334. Virginia won yards-per-play 6.0 to 4.9, and third down conversions 50% to 31%. What caused the disconnect? Looks like a bunch of little things. Virginia had 1 turnover (compared to 0 for Duke). Virginia missed one field goal (none for Duke). Virginia failed on one fourth down try (a virtual turnover). Virginia had two long drives end in made field goals. The Cavaliers didn’t maximize their yardage. Duke eked out a win despite getting outgained by 131 yards.

• Ball State scored a road upset at Central Michigan 32-29 despite getting outgained 426-287. The victory came thanks to a 1-5 turnover advantage. Ball State only managed 3.8 yards-per-play, while allowing 6.2 to CMU, and only converted 36% of their third down tries compared to 55% for the shocked host.

• San Jose State was more dominant at Wyoming than a 27-20 overtime decision would have suggested. The visitors won total yardage 471-277 and yards-per-play 5.5 to 4.8. San Jose State lost the turnover category 2-0, one of which was a fumble that was returned for a TD.

• Nevada beat BYU 42-35 despite getting outgained 601-411. That’s 190 yards! BYU missed a field goal and lost three fumbles. Yards-per-play was a more restrained 5.9 to 5.4. BYU’s monster raw yardage advantage was triggered by running 102 plays to 76, despite having three drives end prematurely with turnovers.

• Florida Atlantic was more dominant over Western Kentucky than the 45-38 final score may have suggested. FAU won total yardage 619-402 (217 yards!), won yards-per-play 7.0 to 5.7, won rushing yards 278-67, and had second half TD drives of 79, 65, 96, and 64 yards with the game on the line while rallying for a home upset. Impressive.

See you again next Wednesday.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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