Memphis has been one of the most impressive success stories of the 2014 season thus far. They’ve played much better than preseason expectations on the way to a 3-2 record and a 4-0-1 mark against the spread. Their backers in Las Vegas have been walking to the pay window. Through five games, Memphis has been a total of 78 points better than Vegas lines! 

Let’s take a look at that market performance more closely…

MEMPHIS VS. THE MARKET

Memphis (-38.5) beat Austin Peay 63-0 (covered by 25.5)

Memphis (+22) lost to UCLA 35-42 (covered by 15)

Memphis (-11.5) beat Middle Tennessee 36-17 (covered by 7.5)

Memphis (+21) lost to Ole Miss 3-24 (push)

Memphis (+3) beat Cincinnati 41-14 (covered by 30)

Just when the market thought it caught up, Memphis bounced back from a loss (to a team that would subsequently beat #2 Alabama) with a 30-point cover! And, that victory at Cincinnati may loom very large in the American Athletic Conference even though it was only the league opener for Memphis. The Athlon college football publication this past summer tabbed Cincinnati as the team to beat in the AAC, while Memphis was ranked #8 of 11 teams. Memphis just crushed the early favorite to win the league on the road!

Perceptions have changed since the summer. East Carolina has impressed thus far, and is considered by some to be the “new” favorite to win the AAC. Central Florida is respected, even though they’ve played a lot of ugly football. You’d think that the road to the AAC championship would go through East Carolina and Central Florida. Guess what. Memphis doesn’t play either one this year! You can’t do a full round-robin in an 11-team league. Memphis misses both EC and UCF in this year’s rotation.

If Memphis can avoid a letdown this week when they host erratic and inconsistent Houston, then maintain composure on the road at Temple in early November…it may be a relative cakewalk to an undefeated league record. According to most current Power Ratings and computer assessments, Memphis will be prohibitive favorites over everyone else they face.

This weekly article is about boxscore stats. Are there any red flags in this year’s boxscores that would suggest Memphis is more pretender than contender?

MEMPHIS TOTAL YARDAGE BY GAME

Memphis outgained Austin Peay 545-146

Memphis lost yardage to UCLA 469-540, competitive for 3 TD dog

Memphis outgained Middle Tennessee 480-325, including 261-88 rushing

Memphis lost yardage to Ole Miss 104-426 (offense utterly outmatched)

Memphis outgained Cincinnati 610-352, including 299-97 rushing

Memphis probably wouldn’t be a threat to win the Pac 12 South given that loss at UCLA (and UCLA’s home loss this past week to Utah). Memphis is still outclassed by the elite teams of the SEC West, as the offense had no hope to do much at new national #3 Ole Miss. But, dominance at the point of attack and big yardage volume vs. the likes of Middle Tennessee and Cincinnati speaks very well for their chances to run the table from this point forward.

Let’s see how MTSU and Cincinnati compare to the rest of the Memphis schedule. Here are this week’s rankings according to Jeff Sagarin of USA Today for those two teams plus the rest of the Memphis slate. I’ll stick the remaining opponents in calendar order.

Sagarin Rankings of Comparable Conquests

Cincinnati #68 (who was outgained 610-352 by Memphis)

Middle Tennessee #96 (who was outgained 480-325 by Memphis)

Still Ahead

Houston #84

@SMU #153

Tulsa #156

@Temple #56

@ Tulane #140

South Florida #121

Connecticut #148

Houston and Temple are the only opponents left who are currently in Sagarin’s top 120! And, Memphis just established point of attack dominance vs. similar opposition.

Can Memphis handle the adjustment from being the hunter to being the hunted? How long before the market catches up to the Tigers’ newly established level of performance? For now, let’s marvel at the amazing transformation of this team under young head coach Justin Fuente. After a 7-17 start in his first two years, Fuente’s group can now sleepwalk to bowl eligibility, and is a mathematical frontrunner to earn at least a co-championship in the AAC.  

Some misleading final scores from last week…

• Kansas played much worse than the scoreboard made it look in its 33-14 loss at West Virginia. Kansas was outgained 557-176, outrushed 255-65, and committed 11 penalties. A late punt return helped create illusions about how the team “responded” to the firing of Charlie Weis. They will continue to be blowout fodder the rest of the year against teams less likely to keep shooting themselves in the foot (West Virginia had 3 giveaways, and settled for four field goals).

• Virginia Tech did win and cover in a 34-17 decision over North Carolina. But, they only had a yardage advantage of 357-323. Tech had TD drives of 10 and 16 yards, and hit paydirt another time on an interception return.

• South Carolina outgained Kentucky 500-447 in its 45-38 loss, but dropped the turnover category 3-1. Their last miscue was an interception that was returned for the game-winning TD.

• Bowling Green outgained Buffalo 508-368, but could only win 36-35 because of a 3-1 turnover loss and 11 penalties.

• Notre Dame needed a late TD pass on a fourth down play to edge past Stanford 17-14. The Irish were much more dominant than that score makes it seem, winning total yardage 370-205, and rushing yardage 129-47 in a smash-mouth affair played in a cold drizzle.

• Washington State outgained California 812-589, but lost a wild 60-59 roller coaster ride. There weren’t any turnovers in the game by either team. California had two kickoff return TD’s, which helped bridge the gap from 589 to 812.

• Rutgers was much more dominant against Michigan than its 26-24 winning margin would have suggested. Rutgers won total yardage 476-336. Michigan didn’t really “rally ‘round their coach” in this tough loss. Wolverines were badly outgained.

See you again next Wednesday.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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