After suffering my first losing week of the season, it’s time to get back on the saddle and rattle off some winners. As always, feel free to comment or leave a question below, or reach out on Twitter @Smithers513. Good luck!

Record:

Week 1: 3-1

Week 2: 3-1

Week 3: 2-2

Week 4: 2-1

Week 5: 1-3

Overall: 11-8 (57.9 %)

When this game opened Sunday night at +6, I was all over it. I still like it at +4 quite a bit, and think Memphis will win outright. After three games, I think it’s fairly easy to see what the Bearcats’ strengths and weaknesses are. Cincinnati’s defense has shown massive inefficiencies this season, allowing 36 ppg, ranking them 108th in the country. Memphis was very pedestrian last week against Ol Miss, gaining only 104 yards of total offense, but I’m chalking that one up to the Rebels having one of the countries’ best defenses. In their other three games, the Tigers have scored 63, 36, and 35 points against a talented UCLA defense.

When it comes down to it, I just don’t like the matchup for Cincinnnati. I was really discouraged by what I saw from Cincinnati on the lines of scrimmage against Ohio State. Granted, Memphis isn’t on the same level as OSU, but their front 7 is very good and I think will make enough plays for Memphis to win this game. Also, as we’ve seen from Cincinnati, no lead is safe with their defense.

After Toledo lost their starting QB against Missouri, I was worried about how they would react. I actually like their offense quite a bit now with new quarterback Logan Woodside, who has a lot of moxie and isn’t afraid to make tough throws. Toledo has a strong rushing attack as well, ranking 22nd nationally at over 244 yards per game. This Rockets team has really settled into a rhythm offensively, and has scored 34 or more points in four of five games.

Western Michigan is a team that I think is going to get better as the year goes on given their youth. The Broncos have quietly been putting up solid numbers offensively this season, averaging 41.3 points per game if you take out their 17 point performance against Virginia Tech last week. WMU also gets the boost of having No. 1 WR Corey Davis back this week, as well as Darius Phillips.

Simply put, I’m not going to get too cute here. Two teams that are more than capable offensively going against defenses that rank 93rd and 105th in points allowed should have a field day and go over 65 points.

After diving in, this was a line that didn’t make much sense to me. When you look at Ohio, they’ve performed how they should have. Their two losses are extremely forgivable to me, given they got blown out by Marshall, and actually played better than the score indicated in a 20-3 loss at Kentucky. Outside of those games, the Bobcats are 3-0 both SU and ATS. On the flip-side, Central Michigan is 2-3 SU, and 1-4 ATS, with the lone win coming against the abomination that is Purdue. I’m going to take the better team, getting points, with the better coach and better defense every time.

Will the real Ragin’ Cajuns please stand up? ULL’s 1-3 start hasn’t been entirely surprising given that they had two road games against Ole Miss and Boise State, but the way they have performed has been rather alarming given their talent level. However, I think that all changes this week when the Ragin’ Cajuns get to wipe their slate clean and begin Sun Belt play, and winning the Sun Belt has been the goal from the jump. Outside of Georgia Southern, no team in the Sun Belt is as close to as talented as ULL, and on Saturday I think they get to exercise some of the demons that have plagued their rough start.

Luckily for ULL, they get one of the worst teams in FBS to take their frustrations out on Saturday with Georgia State.  The Panthers are simply outclassed in this matchup at every position. GSU is awful defensively, allowing 41 points per game, and I think ULL shouldn’t have much trouble getting Terrance Broadway on track in this one. In order for Georgia State to remain competitive, they’ll need to run the ball, convert easy 3rd downs, and keep their defense on the sidelines given how poor it is. The problem is the Panthers rank 102nd in the FBS in rushing and are forced to air it out a ton given they are playing from behind more often than not. Both teams are coming off the bye, and I expect ULL to have a successful game plan against Georgia State’s passing attack, and should force them into some turnovers. I see ULL winning comfortably and regaining form of the team we thought they would be entering the season.

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