After a very successful week 3 (6-1 record) outside circumstances forced me to skip posting a Week 4 ACC card here.  Ultimately this wound up being a positive, as it was a very ugly card that I wasn’t able to dedicate my usual amount of time towards researching.  Week 5 brings us a much more favorable schedule for the ACC teams in my opinion, and one that I invested in very early.  I played a bunch of games when the lines came out and got some really good line value on a few of these games.  Naturally, I won’t use those numbers here if they are no longer available.

YTD	13	3	8.34	81.25%
	Wins	Losses	Units	Win%
NCAAF Week 1	5	1	3.45	83.33%
NCAAF Week 2	2	1	0.95	66.67%
NCAAF Week 3	6	1	3.94	85.71%
NCAAF Week 4	0	0	0.00

Week 5 in the ACC:

Plays:

North Carolina State Wolfpack +18.5   Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I played this at open at 23.5, and would play it all the way down to 17 for 1 unit.  My power ranking line on this game was FSU -13 and that does not factor in the spot for Florida State, which I believe to be a poor one.  We catch the Seminoles in a pretty big flat spot this week off of their latest Jameis-gate incident and a gutty come-from-behind win in OT against a Clemson team who should have beat them.  Now FSU has to bounce back and win by 3+ scores on the road versus a much improved NCSU team?  It certainly feels like it is a lot to ask of this years team.

I emphasized this for a reason.  Though its early in the season FSU looks like a team on a championship hangover; they’ve yet to look much like the dominant team that we saw each week of last year.  The Noles defense was solidly manipulated in both the Oklahoma State and Clemson games, and the way that their offensive line got pushed around on Saturday night should worry anyone holding FSU championship futures for this year.  It’s early days, but FSU is currently my 92nd ranked pass defense and my 91st ranked passing offense.

To NC State’s great credit, this is a much improved team from a year ago.  Jacoby Brisset looks like the perfect QB to run Dave Doeren’s run-based offense as he has the mobility to break plays with his feet and the arm to make defenses pay when they bite on the run fake.  The Wolfpack have mostly breezed to a 4-0 start after a sluggish display in their opener, and have done it with a balanced attack on offense (top 20 in both my passing and rushing efficiency rankings) and a defense that looks to be improving as they go.

This is a large step up in opponent class for NC State (though Old Dominion and Georgia Southern are sneaky-decent lower level FBS teams), but I think it’s one that they are well prepared for.  This team went winless in ACC play last year and got absolutely humiliated in Tallahassee so there are several opportunities for this team to continue to show improvement.  They don’t have the athletes to expect to pull off the upset tomorrow, but they have a good QB and are well-coached to the point that I expect them to be very competitive here.  Florida State 31, NC State 20

Other games I’m on (full write-ups if time permits):

Duke +7 -115 1U

I made this UM -2.  Their is alot to like with this Duke team catching a TD, they are so well coached and disciplined that you know your going to get 60 hard minutes from them regardless of opponent skill level.  This is a large step up in opponent talent level but a team that is pretty much their exact opposite in terms of discipline and coaching.  I’ll take a TD with the more cohesive team that is well organized in most situations, and getting it vs a Miami team who is still really struggling defensively is all the better.  Duke has a great shot to win the game tomorrow in my opinion.

Syracuse +10 -110 0.5U (I played this at +13 on Sunday for a full unit)

This is a classic look ahead spot for this Notre Dame team (Stanford on deck). They have a coach & QB that I really like but I still have a bunch of questions about the rest of their roster.  Syracuse is coming in a little undervalued off of the 2 TD loss to Maryland; you look at that box score and see that they dominated that game in several capacities (+9 FDs, +200 total yards, +300 rushing yards!) but were killed by several special teams mistakes and turnovers.  This line is just much too high for me, I made Syracuse only a 4 point dog in this spot.  Only a half play at the current number because of my tremendous respect for Brian Kelly and the fact that I doubt the Orange’s ability to get in the back door with the passing game if they need to do it.

Games I played on Sunday but wouldn’t play at the current market price.  Will not count these for my record here  (Follow me on twitter to get these plays when they come out):

Clemson -8.5 1U

Boston College -3 1U

Western Michigan +28 0.5U

Games I have no strong opinion on at this time:

Virginia vs Kent State (lean Kent State)

Louisville vs Wake Forest (lean Wake Forest)