Iowa State nearly pulled off an upset three weeks ago against Kansas State.  It was a great spot for them, especially with the Wildcats having the Auburn Tigers next on their schedule.  This week I’m going back to the well and playing the Cyclones again.  This time they will host #6 Baylor as 22 point home underdogs.

If I’m being completely honest, I’m betting against Baylor, more than I’m betting for Iowa State.  Too many times the public and media fall in love with potential Heisman candidates and high flying offenses.  The Bears return only 9 starters from last season.  They have yet to play a road game and the teams they have played, have only 4 wins combined (SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo). It’s no wonder they’re Top 10 in all categories, so yeah…I believe this line is vastly out of whack (watch Baylor win by 50, now).

On the flip side, the teams Iowa State has played this season are all over .500 (North Dakota State, Kansas State and Iowa).  They have been tested through their strength of schedule and have become a better team because of it.  Iowa State is also playing for redemption.  Last year they suffered their worst loss in program history, losing to Baylor 71-7.  Coming off a bye week, I promise the entire coaching staff has been reminding its 16 returning starters of that stat for the last two weeks.  With the game being nationally televised and a possible sold out crowd of 56,000, expect Iowa State to play very hard and fight until the bitter end.

Normally I don’t like betting on teams that are 20 plus underdogs, but I will take my chances and say, “Iowa State is not THAT BAD and Baylor is not THAT GOOD.”

Consider: Iowa State +22

Good Luck!

Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.