This game really surprised me when I looked at the betting lines this week. Kentucky, who is coming off a season without any conference wins, is a 17-point favorite against the Commodores. Here are three reasons why I think Derek Mason and company have the chance to upset the Wildcats.

Improvements Against South Carolina

Sure, the Gamecocks didn’t play their best game of the year, but Vanderbilt looked better than the team that took the field in the season opener. Wade Freebeck came in for an injured Patton Robinette and was 11-of-20 for 168 yards and a touchdown. (Robinette is listed as questionable for this week’s game.)

The offense totaled 379 total yards, its highest total of the season. The attack was fairly balanced as well, with 223 of those yards coming through the air and 156 yards on the ground.

The defense still has its issues, but I think Mason—a defensive-minded coach—can put together a game plan that allows Vanderbilt to stay in the game.

The Commodores are beginning to find their identity offensively (slowly, but surely) and will be able to do enough on that side of the ball to stay in the game also.

Can Limit Patrick Towles

Towles has shown that he deserves to be the starter for the Wildcats—and he has played well—but the young quarterback is also still capable of making mistakes. He is entering just his fourth career start.

(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Against Florida, he was able to get the ball down field and use his mobility to get out of the pocket, but he also threw three crucial interceptions in that game. Even though one interception was caused by a dropped pass, my point is that Vandy can force Towles into turnovers if they apply pressure up front like Florida did.

Vanderbilt has caused five turnovers on the season.

The Commodores Have Momentum

Vanderbilt was a new team coming into this season with a new coach and new leaders on both sides of the ball. Early in the season, I think Derek Mason struggled to get his team to play with the kind of confidence and swagger that we saw last season under James Franklin.

After the close game with South Carolina—a game Vanderbilt hung around in until late in the fourth quarter—we should see this team play with more confidence.

Conclusion

I think Vanderbilt has the opportunity to pull off the upset if the team is able to get pressure on Towles and win the turnover battle. It will be important that the Commodores sustain drives and come out with a balanced offensive attack. A 17-point swing in favor of Kentucky is too steep. Vanderbilt will be able to cover the spread, and I think Mason’s bunch will surprise some folks in the end. Kentucky finds a way to win it in the fourth quarter, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Vanderbilt came out on top.

Prediction: Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 27