As we move on to Week 5, we’re starting to get a better feel for some of these teams. Below are four games that I like this week. After going 2-1 last week, let’s keep it rolling. As always, feel free to comment or leave a question below or on Twitter @Smithers513. Good luck!

Record:

Week 1: 3-1
Week 2: 3-1
Week 3: 2-2
Week 4: 2-1
Season: 10-5 (66.67%)

FIU @ UAB -16.5 (-120)

UAB QB Austin Brown (Marvin Gentry-US PRESSWIRE)

If you would’ve told me last year I would lay 16.5 points with UAB, I would’ve laughed. But the Blazers are having a very quick turnaround and I still think this number is a score too short. UAB is 2-1 to start the year, and in their only loss hung tough with Mississippi State at MSU, which looks more and more impressive as the season wears on, especially given the fact UAB outgained the Bulldogs on their home field. A major reason the Blazers have made huge strides is that their offense has improved leaps and bounds under new head coach Bill Clark, who has helped UAB average 41 ppg in their first three contests. Meanwhile, FIU has played their first four games at home this year, and looked rather unimpressive in doing so. A couple weeks ago, FIU had a 16-0 lead against Pitt, but ended up losing 42-25 and getting gouged on the ground for 321 rushing yards, despite turning Pitt over 3 times. It is also a bad spot for FIU, playing their first road game after going against ACC heavyweights Pittsburgh and Louisville in back-to-back weeks, with their chief rival FAU coming to town next week. UAB had last week off, and I look for the Blazers to come out fast and strong against an overmatched FIU team. I bought the half point, making this play -16.5, laying 20 cents of juice.

Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion -3

For any of you that follow me on Twitter, you’ll notice that I tweeted out playing the opener of ODU +2, which I thought was way off, and I still think the Monarchs only laying a field goal is too short. I was very optimistic about ODU going into the season, and they have fulfilled expectations, jumping out to a 3-1 record and only losing at NC State by 12, who’s 4-0 so far this season. There are a lot of angles I like in this one that point towards an ODU cover. To start, ODU has an offense that is a horrible match-up for MTSU. The Blue Raiders have a weak defense, giving up at least 35 points in each of their last three games. ODU has a very potent offense, and has a ton of success throwing the ball. MTSU has shown they are very susceptible to the pass, getting shredded by Western Kentucky for 50 points, and allowing 593 passing yards. ODU is going to bring a similarly talented attack and approach into their game Friday. From a scheduling perspective, MTSU has had a rough few weeks, playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. The Blue Raiders have faced some physical teams, Minnesota and Memphis, and in their only home game went 3 OT’s with Western Kentucky. How much gas is left in the tank for MTSU after getting handled by in-state rival Memphis last week? I don’t think there is enough to slow down a high octane ODU offense. Add in the fact that the Monarchs have a very underrated home field advantage, and a Friday night nationally televised home game, and I just think ODU is too much for MTSU to cover the short number.

UTSA @ FAU +5

It hurts to bet against the Roadrunners given how good they’ve been to us in the past, but I think this line is off for a variety of reasons. To start, UTSA isn’t a team that I’m sure is a equipped to handle the role of being a road favorite. The Roadrunners have been well below average offensively from a yardage perspective this season, ranking 112th in passing and 109th in rushing yards per game, and haven’t been impressive from a points per game perspective at 21 ppg, albeit against solid competition.

The verdict is still out on what kind of team FAU is, but I’ve seen enough the last two weeks to convince me that this team is much better than their record indicates. They had the daunting task of opening at Nebraska and then Alabama, but the last two weeks they blew out Tulsa at home and lost by 1 in a cross-country trip to Wyoming. I think the Owls defense is actually pretty solid if we toss out the two games against Nebraska and Bama, holding Tulsa and Wyoming to under 21 points each. UTSA hasn’t shown that they are really capable of scoring enough points to cover this number, and I’m happy to take the five points in a game I expect to be tight and probably a field goal game either way.

Rice @ Southern Miss +10

Back when I previewed the C-USA in the summer, I was convinced that Southern Miss was going to a valuable team to back given how bad their perception and results were last season, so I’m going to put my money where my mouth is. I have been down on Rice given what they have returning and that I thought they were rather fortunate to capture a C-USA title last season. The Owls have had a rough open to the season losing to Notre Dame and Texas A&M, and lost last week as a touchdown favorite over ODU at home. The Owls were down by 14 with 7 minutes left, and managed to tie it up before giving up a late field goal for the loss.

Southern Miss is far from a world beater, so you aren’t going to find a lot of statistics that back taking the Golden Eagles. The Golden Eagles have actually already doubled their win total of the last two years this season, at two wins. I expect this team to continue getting better as the year progresses, and I just feel like 10 points is too many for Rice to be laying given their defensive inefficiencies, especially on the road. It’s ugly, but I’m taking the Golden Eagles.