I have said it many times, but it’s worth repeating.  “Rankings mean very little in college sports”, in fact, more times than not, you are paying an extra point (or two) in betting on favorites, oddsmakers know they will get action on the ranked team regardless.  It’s also worth mentioning, ranked teams will get full effort and attention from most underdogs. 

The Indiana Hoosiers are coming off a horrible loss to Bowling Green, especially when you consider they had a bye week prior.  It could be, they were looking ahead at their match-up vs the Missouri Tigers…either way, it was a game in which Vegas had them as 9 point favorites, so a victory should have been accomplished. 

Last year the Hoosiers played the talented Tigers fairly tough, although Indiana had a rough opening quarter giving up two touchdowns, they did settle down and went toe-to-toe with Missouri the remainder of the game, eventually losing 45-28.  

This is not the same Missouri Tigers team of last year.  The Tigers return only 10 starters and have a new Quarterback, who is replacing a three year starter in James Franklin. 

I’m sorry if this is sounding redundant, but here are the key factors in which I will be taking Indiana… 

• Coming off a loss: Creates focus and detail in practice
• Revenge: Creates motivation
• Pride: 78% of the public believes they will lose
• Returning Starters: 18 Return, but the most important is the Quarterback. 

My biggest concern with the Hoosiers is not moving the football.  They have enough weapons on offense to put up 30 plus points.  It’s their defense.  At times it can be fickle, but not so inconsistent to have a 14 point spread.  I feel confident getting double digits. 

Consider: Indiana +14 

Good Luck!

Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.