I only found three games I really liked this week. As always, feel free to comment or leave a question below or on Twitter @Smithers513. Good luck!

Record:

Week 1: 3-1

Week 2: 3-1

Week 3: 2-2

Season: 8-4 (66.67%)

Marshall at Akron +9

There’s a lot to like about taking Akron this week. To start, Marshall’s Jekyl and Hyde home and road split has a chance to rear it’s ugly head. Marshall is a staggering 1-9-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2010. I have yet to see a reason to cnsider backing Marshall as road favorites. The Herd have an uncanny ability to play to the level of their competition when they hit the road, evidenced by their extremely poor ATS record. Akron is in a favorable spot as well, coming off a bye week after losing to Penn State 21-3 in Happy Valley. Akron played the Nittany Lions tough, but were unable to create anything offensively against a stout defense. Marshall hasn’t really faced anyone solid yet this year, and in their only road game against Miami of Ohio they only outgained the Redhawks by 14 yards, and gave up 318 through the air, and only converted 4 of 12 3rd downs. The Zips have had two weeks to prepare for the Herd and I expect them to keep this game within the number.

Middle Tennessee at Memphis -12

Every line tells a story, and the movement from Memphis opening as a 7.5 point favorite to the current number of 12 gives you an indication as well. Memphis is a team that I am very high on, and this spot and matchup couldn’t set up much better for the Tigers. MTSU is a perfect 3-0 ATS but it’s not as pretty as you’d think. The Blue Raiders were outside the number most of the game against Minnesota, but got a late backdoor cover. And last week, MTSU managed a 3-OT win against Western Kentucky, in which their defense got absolutely shredded for 718 yards. Memphis is coming off a strong showing at UCLA, only losing by 7, and has had two weeks to prep for a Blue Raiders team coming off an emotional 3-OT win. Middle Tennessee likes to run the ball and the strength of Memphis is their front 7. Memphis has also made big strides offensively with QB Paxton Lynch who passed for 305 yards against UCLA. I just don’t think MTSU is going to have enough gas in the tank to hang with Memphis, and I expect the Tigers to win comfortably.

Miami Ohio +28 at Cincinnati

I was on Cincinnati last week, and despite the 24 point win, the game wasn’t nearly as lopsided as you might think at a quick glance. Cincinnati’s QB Gunner Kiel had an amazing debut, throwing for 418 yards and 6 touchdowns, but Cincinnati’s defense left much to be desired. Despite the 58 points, Cincinnati only outgained Toledo by 21 yards, and gave up a whopping 27 first downs to Toledo’s offense, who was playing a QB making his first career start. I don’t expect Cincinnati to have much trouble putting points on the board, but the defense gives me no indication that it is capable of closing the door with that big of a lead. I live in Cincinnati, and this game means a lot to both schools. It is a quiet rivalry nationally, being that Miami is located in a rural area of Cincinnati. This game last year was won by Cincinnati 14-0, and was tied until Cincy scores two TD’s with less than five minutes left. Miami was one of the worst teams in college football last year, but they have a huge upgrade at coach and their QB, Hendrix, is a Cincinnati native and Notre Dame transfer. Miami also has a huge advantage from a scheduling perspective, with Cincinnati having a game at Ohio State next week. Cincinnati has had the game at OSU circled for years. I expect Cincinnati to go through the motions and with an unproven defense, 28 points is simply way too much to lay in a rivalry game with a massive look-ahead spot for Cincinnati.