Rarely will I put a lot of emphasis on one player when deciding which game to wager on, but if you haven’t heard about the 6’2, 218 pound senior QB out of East Carolina, you soon will.  His name is Shane Carden and this kid can spin it.

Last year he had one of the best seasons of any quarterback, throwing for more than 4000 yards and completing more than 70 percent of his passes, ranking him third in the nation. And if those stats aren’t scary enough, he gets his “go to” wide receiver Justin Hardy back for another season.

There are three key reasons I like this play:

Revenge: It’s not often your star QB has a horrible game, but last year vs the Hokies, Carden had one of his worst games as a Pirate, throwing for only 158 yards and giving up 3 interceptions.  The last minute of the game ended in a Virginia Tech safety, giving them a 15-10 victory.  After the game, all Carden could say was, “It’s frustrating losing that way (safety).”

Injury: The Hokies are banged up at the corners.  It’s the last place you want weakness in your defense with a quarterback like Carden.  I expect ECU to test the passing game early and often.

Letdown:  If there’s ever such thing as a letdown spot, this is it.  VT is coming off one of their greatest victories in recent memory, with a huge win over Ohio State.  Creating scenarios like contract extensions and “national championship” like style rioting in Blacksburg.

I look for ECU to give VT a real test, Saturday.  If the Hokies aren’t careful they could let this game slip through their fingers.  I could be wrong, but I think 10 points is more than enough.

Consider ECU +10

Smitty

Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.