A really nice start to the season last week, with a 5-1 record on our ACC selections for the opening week.  It was bittersweet that the only loss was on NC State, which also happened to be the game that I was at.  But at least the home team won!

I waited until Friday this week to post my card as it honestly is an ugly ACC slate of games.  Many of the league teams are playing FCS opponents, and while all of those are not guaranteed wins (hello Wake Forest!)  they are difficult to bet until late in the week as it is harder to find widely available lines.  Vegas feels that most of the games this week in the ACC are pretty lopsided, 11 of the 12 games involving ACC teams have double digit lines.  So the goal this week is to find a few spots where a few of these bigger favorites might struggle, and to find a few spots where the favorites might be able to dominate.

2014 YTD Record: 5-1 +4.51 Units

Week 1: 5-1 +4.51 Units

Boston College – Pittsburgh Under 49.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

We were successful last week with our Boston College under play and I see no reason to get away from it here, even if the rationale for the play is a little different.  Instead of expecting the Eagles to dominate their opponent, it looks like they should find themselves in a slugfest type of game tonight against an opponent that is after their own heart stylistically.  Both BC and Pittsburgh are much more at home at this point in the season playing grind-it-out, smash mouth football (56 carries to 14 passes last week for Pittsburgh, 61 carries to 25 passes last week for BC in blowout wins) and will look to attack each other tonight at the line of scrimmage.  While Boston College is working in some new wrinkles with more of an option-based attack this year with mobile QB Tyler Murphy, Pittsburgh looks like more of a classic straight ahead type of running team.  I expect both teams to have enough success on the ground to stick with the running games (and to keep the clock moving) but I don’t see enough explosive playmakers to expect the ground games to produce a ton of big plays.  Here is what BC coach Steve Addazio expects to see tonight:

We have a good feel and they have a good feel who we are want what we are. They are a good football team, really good. I think they’re strong. And the thing about the game is it will be very physical game, because they’re a power running outfit. I don’t think either program is going to trick each other in this game. We have to play great defense and each team will try and establish a run in the same time.

Addazio is giving his general game plan away right there; he wants to grind it out offensively and play a field position game that limits mistakes but also limits the opportunities for big plays.  Both teams are breaking in new QBs this season and will look to be conservative in their passing games at this juncture, so I don’t expect either team to take many chances downfield (though Pitt does have a nice playmaker in sophomore Tyler Boyd).  It’s a nice match-up in the secondary for an under as the team I expect to have the better passing attack at this point (Pittsburgh) is going against a secondary that returns all 4 starters from last season and should be much stronger than they were a year ago.

Both of these teams have aspirations to return to a bowl game this season, and I think both realize that this is a very winnable game.  At this early juncture in the season with such relatively inexperienced signal callers, it makes sense to expect a tightly played game where each team is content to play for field position and hope to grind out drives.  In that situation a low scoring game is likely, so I’ll take the under on a total that is just over 7 touchdowns of offense.  Pitt 24 – BC 16

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -10 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Georgia Tech doesn’t jump out as a good team to play on as a favorite, but the Jackets have been a team that I like to lay points with against teams who I feel that 1) they can overwhelm & 2) haven’t seen the option very often in their recent history.  Tulane matches both of those criteria for me this week, and we catch the Green Wave in a bit of a letdown spot after they blew the opener last week vs Tulsa in OT after leading most of the game.

When the GT option is working well it is very difficult to stop, as the defense wears down and gets sloppier at keeping their assignments.  I’m really high on Alabama Justin Thomas for GT, as I think he adds more balance to this offense in the passing game (282 yards in the air last week) that helps keep defenses off balance.  One of the biggest dangers in defending the wishbone is that one blown assignment can blow a play wide open, so the threat of a passing attack will keep the Green Wave further off balance.

The Jackets have been very good as a big favorite the last couple of years (10-3 as a TD or greater favorite last 2 years) as the run game usually continues to work well in games where it is successful, so if Tulane falls behind early it will be very difficult to mount a comeback.  Tulane does get a boost in opening their new, on campus stadium this week (first on campus game being played this week since 1974), but I feel like they drew a very tough opponent to start this new era.

Old Dominion – North Carolina State Over 65 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I see this as a game that is played at an extremely high tempo.  NC State really struggled in the 1H last week but finally found some success once they put their foot to the floor last week and went hurry up vs a Georgia Southern team who struggled with their endurance down the stretch.  I see NCSU coach Dave Doeren looking to carry that momentum from their 2H comeback last week over this week by playing at a higher pace that will give Jacoby Brissett a chance to find some rhythm.  Old Dominion returns 10 defensive starters which can be bad news for an over, but this is the same team that allowed 52, 47, 35, 38 & 80 points last year in their 5 FBS games.  Now that they are playing a full FBS slate in their first complete season at this level I expect that their defensive depth will be extremely tested.  Doeren and staff were especially upset with their passing distribution last week, and their failure to get top WR Bryan Underwood involved.  Look for NCSU to spread the field against ODU this week and try to capitalize on the 1v1 match-ups that their offense is designed to generate, and look for them to do it at a quick tempo as well.

I expect Old Dominion to do plenty to contribute to the scoring as well.  They have a very dangerous QB in Taylor Heinicke who is a multi-year starter with over 10,000 yards and 100 TDs of experience (much of which was achieved at the FCS level) and an offense that has put up 42 & 45 points per game over the last two years.  While the competition is obviously much stouter this season, it is still an experienced group that returns 5 of their top 6 rushers and 4 of their top 5 wide receivers.  Old Dominion is planning to work to incorporate the run more this season, but this will still be a team who plays at a very fast tempo and will look to be the first team to take advantage of NCSU’s inexperience in their new nickel package (GSU is a run first team who only threw 17 times last week).

I see NC State setting the tone with an aggressive approach when they have the ball, and a Old Dominion team who looks like to be able to keep up, at least for awhile.  If NCSU is able to pull away and takes their foot off the gas, we know we have an offense with the Monarchs who can move the ball in garbage time and get us some extra points to get the total over the number.  NCSU 45 Old Dominion 34

Very Small card for me here this week guys.  You can find my full card on my Twitter feed, if interested.  Best of Luck!