Week 2

One of the biggest challenges I find in the second week of college football season is not falling victim to making overreactions based on what we see in the first week. I am not going to dive too far into statistics this week given the small sample size, but rather provide analysis from what I saw in Week 1. As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Smithers513. Good luck!

Georgia Tech at Tulane +10

Although Tulane lost at Tulsa last week, there were a lot of encouraging signs from the Green Wave. Tulane debuted new quarterback Tanner Lee, who played reasonably well, making his first collegiate road start. The Green Wave had Tulsa beat and outplayed for much of the game, but I won’t bring up any bad memories for bettors who were holding +6 tickets. At the end of the day, the game was a double overtime loss and loss against the spread for Tulane.

This week Tulane gets to return home to the comforts of the Superdome and gets an ACC visitor in Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets quietly beat Wofford 38-19, but the game was closer than the score appeared. Georgia Tech was up just 24-19 with 9 minutes left in the 4^th quarter, and added a touchdown with just over a minute remaining to stretch the lead to 38-19.

Georgia Tech loses a lot from last season, and is only returning 10 starters. In this game, the inexperienced Yellow Jackets will be playing their first true road game with a quarterback making just his second career start. Tulane was deadly at home last year, going 5-1 with the lone loss a 2 point defeat to a solid South Alabama team. The Green Wave were 3-0 last year as home underdogs with three outright wins. I’m not going to get too complex here, I’m going to take the double-digit home dog against an inexperienced team playing its first true road game.

Arizona at UTSA +7

Two teams that turned in some of the most impressive performances of Week 1 are going to square off Thursday night in San Antonio. Arizona had little difficulty getting past UNLV, en route to 52-13 victory over the Rebels. Quarterback and true freshman Anu Solomon looked great statistically in his debut, but wasn’t quite nearly as impressive as the numbers indicated. I think it’s important to not overvalue what Arizona did to UNLV, given that UNLV will more than likely find themselves as one of the worst defenses in the FBS this year.

One aspect of the Roadrunners that I feel gets greatly understated from a handicapping perspective is their experience. Yes, they return a ton of starters, but a lot of these players have been within the program for 4 and 5 years, making them grown men. Rich Rodriguez has said as much in his pregame quotes. Arizona returns just 13 starters this year, including a true freshman quarterback who has yet to be tested on the road against a very underrated front 7.

To be clear, I think Arizona is definitely the superior team from a talent perspective, but what talent sometimes can’t overcome is experience. We see it all the time in college basketball. The city of San Antonio is getting behind this team and is expecting a sell out for the game. The Roadrunners have quietly put together six wins in a row dating back to last season, and have been a great commodity that has largely been unrecognized by the public. After Thursday night, I’m not sure that’s the case. I expect the Roadrunners to have a very good chance to win this game outright, and will take the touchdown and put it in my back pocket.

Old Dominion +17 at NC State

On a game that flew under the radar last week, NC State scored a touchdown with 1:37 left in the 4^th quarter to beat Georgia Southern 24-23. Georgia Southern is an underrated team that runs the option, so I won’t totally dismiss that as a terrible performance from NC State, but nonetheless the Wolfpack failed to live up to expectations as a 20.5 point favorite in that one.

In to town comes Old Dominion, who is entering their 2^nd year in the FBS. Old Dominion went 8-4 as an independent last season, but is in their first season playing a full FBS slate as a member of C-USA. The Monarchs return 17 starters, including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. The real gem for Old Dominion is their quarterback Taylor Heinicke, who passed for 4,022 yards last season, along with a completion percentage of 70%, and 33 TD’s and 8 interceptions.

Old Dominion had a little bit of a rough time adjusting to the FBS last season, but covered at East Carolina and Pittsburgh as 14 and 17 point underdogs last season, both teams that I think were better last year than NC State is this year. I expect NC State to be able to score, but Old Dominion runs an uptempo offense with a tremendous quarterback, and worst case scenario I see the backdoor cover being open. I’m going to take the three scores in a game that I expect to be pretty close.

Memphis +24 at UCLA

UCLA is a team that garnished a lot of love as a team outside of the normal favorites as a team that could contend for the playoff and possible championship. In my opinion, the Bruins have a long way to go before they can be realistically expected to challenge for a championship. UCLA struggled mightily against Virginia on Saturday, and didn’t score an offensive touchdown until late in the third quarter.

As usual, the game will come down to matchups. UCLA has big issues with the offensive line, who gave up five sacks to UVA. Memphis comes to town Saturday boasting a very strong defense who relies on the strength of the defensive line, led by 1^st team all AAC selection Martin Ifedi, who tallied 11.5 sacks last season. The offense has also gotten better under coach Justin Fuente’s 3^rd year, posting 63 points albeit over Austin Peay in the Tigers’ first game, a 63-0 win. Dual threat quarterback Paxton Lynch is getting better, and could be a breakout player this year.

UCLA has a large game looming next week in Dallas against Texas, and if they overlook Memphis the slightest bit, will find themselves in a dogfight yet again. I just don’t know how UCLA rectifies an offensive line issue that was a huge liability last week against a front 7 that is going to create issues for them this week.

---