Welcome back, college football. We’ve missed you dearly. This year, in addition to the usual trio of the MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA, I will be focusing on the AAC as well. As always, feel free to reach out with any questions or comments. You can follow me on Twitter @Smithers513. Good luck!

 

UTSA +11 @ Houston

I’m going to get the 2014 season kicked off with two teams that had solid seasons last year. Last year, when these two teams met, Houston won 59-28 as a two point road favorite. On the surface, that game looks rather one-sided. However, that’s simply not the case. The Roadrunners actually outgained Houston by two yards, and Houston was only up 3, 31-28 at the end of the 3^rd quarter. In the 4^th quarter, UTSA turned the ball over a ridiculous 5 times, which led to the route.

In general, Houston was a team that benefited tremendously from turnovers last year, leading the nation in turnover differential at +25. Meanwhile, UTSA was -7 for the year.

When we look at UTSA, we see arguably the most experienced team in the country. The Roadrunners return 20 starters from a team that won their last five games of the season. The Roadrunners will be replacing their quarterback Eric Soza, but they get a senior starter in Tucker Carter filling in, who gets a very strong O-line and cast of skill players to work with.

UTSA was 7-5 last season, with all 5 losses coming to bowl teams, and they were dogs of 27, 24, and 14 in three of those losses. Last season, UTSA was +65 yards per game against C-USA opponents. One thing that I think gets overlooked with the Roadrunners is their head coach, Larry Coker, is still a hell of a coach. I have to think that after having an offseason of feeling slighted at not getting a bowl invitation at 7-5, and knowing how that Houston game got away from them last season, UTSA comes out strong against Houston and covers the number.

 

Tulane at Tulsa Under 47

These are two teams that went in opposite directions last season. Tulane had their best season in five years, and Tulsa their worst. Let’s take a look at these two teams. Tulane was a team that was really fortunate to win 7 games last season, aided by a +11 turnover ratio. Tulane was pretty abysmal offensively last season, ranking 104^th and 103^rd in passing and rushing offense. The Green Wave also lost their main source of offensive production in Ryan Grant, who caught 9 touchdown passes along with 1,039 receiving yards, and really was more impressive than those numbers indicate. This year they do start redshirt freshman Tanner Lee at QB, who was reported to have been impressive in spring ball, and did well enough to win the job over the incumbents Nick Montana and Devin Powell.

Tulsa is a team that will definitely be looking to find its identity offensively early in the season. The quarterback job was awarded to sophomore Dane Evans, who was pretty bad last season, completing only 84 of 195 passes, a 43.1 completion percentage and threw four touchdowns to ten interceptions. I definitely don’t expect those type of results again from Evans, but with only five returning starters on the offensive side of the ball, and the loss of a 1,381 yard rusher departing as a safety blanket, I don’t expect a tremendously quick improvement.

This is a rather low total for college football, but in my opinion presents a ton of value. Tulsa returns 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball, and clearly will hang their hat on the defense to give them chances to win ballgames. Tulane is not going to try and push the tempo, and barring any significant turnovers that result in scores, I don’t see those two teams being strong enough offensively to cover this number.

 

Boston College at UMass Under 47.5

I’m not going to get too cute with this play. When I look at Boston College, I see a team that loses nearly all of its offensive production from a year ago, with the departure of Andre Williams and four year starting quarterback Chase Rettig. Coach Steve Addazio is clear with what he wants to do offensively and that involves running the football. Although the Eagles do lose Rettig, they get Florida transfer Tyler Murphy under center this year who I think will do just fine. But, it won’t be easy for the Eagles, with only three returning starters, all being on the offensive line.

UMass was 1-11 last year, with the lone win coming against arguably the worst team in all of college football last season, Miami of Ohio. There isn’t much reason to believe the offense will make significant strides this season with only two returning offensive linemen, although the primary core of skill positions along with the quarterback return.

In three games against Power 5 conferences last season, UMass scored a total of 14 points. BC and UMass also both ranked 125^th and 109^th in plays per game last season, a clear sign that these teams do not push the tempo whatsoever. I really have a hard time seeing the Minutemen scoring 14 points against a BC defense they will simply be outmanned by. On the flipside, I’m not seeing Boston College having much continuity offensively, and see them trying to win this game by grinding out a win on the ground and using their physical size advantage.

 

Troy @ UAB -2.5

Things went south in a hurry for UAB last season. It got so bad for the Blazers that they had offensive lineman playing defensive tackle just to fill spots by the end of the season. With the 2014 season a new era begins under lifelong Alabaman Bill Clark, who previously coached the national power Prattville High School and led Jacksonville State to an 11-4 season last year.

The same song and dance goes on for Troy under head coach Larry Blakeney, entering his 24^th year for the Trojans. Troy is a team that will always seem to find their footing as the season progresses under the tutelage of Blakeney, but it could be quite the challenge for the Trojans this year. The defense was an absolute nightmare last season, ranking 118^th last season in total defense. Simply put, it can really only get better for Troy defensively. On offense, the Trojans lose 4 year starting quarterback Corey Robinson, who was monumentally important for them. If you were familiar with Louisiana Monroe and their reliance on Kolton Browning the last few years, the loss for Troy is extremely comparable.

Last season, under Bill Clark, Jacksonville State established the run early and often, rushing on average 49 times a game for 168 yards per game. For me, this game simply boils down to matchups. Troy is replacing major pieces in their passing game, and they really don’t run the ball well ranking 86^th in rushing last season. On the flip side, UAB’s secondary is going to be the strength of their defensive unit, which should be much improved considering only 6 players appeared in all 12 games for UAB defensively.

I really don’t see how Troy is going to be able to match UAB score for score considering the Trojan defense could be in deep trouble trying to stop a Blazer offense that will continue to grind and run the ball. Troy was awful against the run last season, ranking 82^nd in rush defense. I expect Troy to get better as the season progresses but with the replacement of such an important player at quarterback on offense and a defense that cannot stop the bleeding, I see UAB getting a win and covering the short number to open the season.

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