The AAC has some new faces (which conferences don’t these days), so let’s get into it. Here are some thoughts on what the AAC has to offer. As always, if you have any comments or questions, feel free to leave them below or reach out on Twitter @Smithers513.

UCF

The Knights burst onto the national scene last year, but have a lot of holes to fill offensively in 2014. Along with Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson’s departure, three members from the offensive line are gone as well. Word has just come down from UCF that Pete DiNovo has been named the starting QB based on his ability to demonstrate execution and knowledge of the offensive system, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Justin Holman get time as well. The good news for the Knights is that their defense is going to be the best in the AAC, returning 9 starters, and will be the backbone of this team.

Season Win Total- 8.5

Although the defense is going to be strong and returns 9 starters, they struggled against the better units they faced last year, giving up 35 to Louisville, 42 to Baylor, and 31 to Penn State. I definitely expect UCF to progress the year as the season goes on, but it is going to be really hard for them to duplicate their performance from last year with so many question marks offensively. They have road games against Missouri, Houston, and East Carolina, along with a neutral field opener against Penn State. They also have some tricky conference road games at UConn and USF. With news coming that Coach O’Leary may be stepping down as early as the Penn State game, I would shade UCF to under 8.5 wins.

Cincinnati

The further I look, the more I feel the AAC is Cincinnati’s to lose this season. The Bearcats have a very unconventional open to the season, with two bye weeks before playing their first game in week 3 against Toledo. Cincinnati is going to be replacing QB Brendon Kay with Gunner Kiel, a highly touted recruit who transferred from Notre Dame. Kiel has a slew of weapons to work with at the skill positions, and three returning starters on the offensive line. If Kiel struggles, the Bearcats have the safety net of Munchie Legaux, who has a load of experience, and had he not suffered a brutal leg injury last year, would have challenged Brendon Kay for the QB job.

Season Win Total- 7.5

Cincinnati has a pretty good draw in AAC play, avoiding UCF, and drawing Houston and ECU at home. Cincy has two tough out of conference road games at Ohio State and Miami, but I give them a good shot to win the Miami game at around touchdown underdogs. Being in year two of Coach Tommy Tuberville’s system should help the Bearcats replicate last year’s 9 win season, and if Gunner Kiel is as good as advertised, Cincy could surprise a lot of people.

Houston

There’s a lot to like about this Houston team. The Cougars were kind to bettors last year, going 9-4 ATS. The Cougars return 17 starters from last year’s team. They bring back QB John O’Korn, who put up huge numbers as a freshman, and have one of the best receiving units in the country, featured by Deontay Greenberry. A big reason for the success of Houston last season was a +25 turnover margin, and the ability to strike quick with a potent aerial attack offensively.

Season Win Total- 8.5

The huge turnover margin brings me concern. We can’t reasonably expect that number to be the same. Houston was able to hold their own against the heavyweights in the conference last season, losing to UCF and Louisville by a combined 12 points. The schedule is favorable for the Cougars this season as well. They draw UCF and Cincinnati, but get UCF at home. I give the Cougars a chance at 10 wins, with probably losses to BYU and Cincinnati. I don’t feel firmly one way or the other on this total, and this will be a team I will look at week to week.

East Carolina

The Pirates are coming off a tremendous 10 win season last year. With that in mind, I think ECU is in regression mode, at least to start the season. The Pirates lose a bunch from last season, with only 9 returning starters this season. The bright news for ECU is that they have the best quarterback in the conference coming back in Shane Carden. Carden is good enough to make other players around him better, but it could be difficult replacing 3 offensive linemen. The defense is only returning 4 starters, but I’m not sure how much of a downgrade that really is, given how mediocre the defense was last season.

Season Win Total- 7.5

The opening of the season is going to be rough for ECU, likely losing three games by week 5, with a three game stretch at South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and home to North Carolina. The Pirates also draw both Cincinnati and UCF, along with a couple potentially tricky games at USF and Tulsa. I think getting bowl eligibility will be a solid season for ECU given all their losses, and 7 wins a success. I would lean towards the under. I also think ECU will be a good ‘Over’ team this season.

Memphis

It doesn’t feel all that long ago when the Tigers were one of the worst teams in all of college football. Memphis hasn’t seen their team win more than four games in any of the last five seasons. But, there is a lot to be optimistic about on Beale Street. The Tigers have a ton of returning experience, having 17 returning starters. All three levels of their defense return the major pieces, with 8 projected senior starters.

Season Win Total- 5.5

This is a strong win total from oddsmakers given how the Tigers have performed the last five years. The quarterback position is a question mark, but projected starter Paxton Lynch played reasonably well at times last season, especially against Louisville and Houston, and has an experienced receiving corps and running backs to help bolster the load. The Tigers dodge UCF and ECU in conference play, but have two certain losses at UCLA and Ol Miss. I don’t have enough faith in Memphis to back the win total going over, but they will definitely be a team to keep an eye on week to week.

SMU

After four straight seasons with a bowl appearance, SMU just missed the mark last season at 5 wins, but had 3 close losses. The Mustangs will have to replace the school’s second career passing leader in Garrett Gilbert with sophomore Neal Burcham. Burcham has a little experience from last season, and is an Elite 11 QB recruit, so it is reasonable to expect some success from Burcham given the system and tutelage under coach June Jones.

Season Win Total- 4

Four wins feels just about right for this SMU team. With so many question marks to replace, and a strength of schedule at 41, I think making a bowl would be a huge success for the Mustangs. In the out of conference slate, SMU draws Baylor, Texas A&M, and TCU, and not to mention a road game at pesky North Texas. Coach June Jones has never had back to back losing seasons, but bowl eligibility would be big for SMU.

Tulsa

After winning 11 games in 2012, Tulsa followed up posting a horrific 3-9 season last year. I think Tulsa’s season was a bit of an anomaly last season. In their twelve games, Tulsa was negative in turnover margin in seven games, and was -10 in turnover margin on the season. The Golden Hurricanes had shaky QB play before Cody Green went down with an injury and Dane Evans stepped in. Evans took his lumps last season, but after having an offseason to get acclimated with the offense as the guy, I think he’ll make strides this year.

Season Win Total- 5.5

Tulsa returns 15 starters this year, with 10 on the defensive unit. I am expecting a much better season from Tulsa this season. I could see Tulsa winning as many as 9 games this season with good fortune, but a realistic goal would be 7 wins. The defense should be strong enough to keep them in games, and if the offense can find its stride, Tulsa could wind up with a good season.

USF

After posting 5 wins in their last two seasons combined, things feel like they can only go up for Willie Taggart and USF. The good news for USF is that Taggart has success in turning around programs, taking Western Kentucky from 0 wins in his first season to 7 wins in his second. USF returns 10 starters offensively and 5 on the defensive side.

Season Win Total-5

USF won’t lack for athletes, and really is in the upper tier of the AAC in that regard. But they have big strides to make before I can consider them for bowl eligibility. The offense has the capability to make big strides forward, but they were awful last season so it’s hard to see how they can get much worse. I really only see two, maybe three wins on USF’s schedule unless they make big strides from last season. I do get the feeling that the Bulls will have an upset or two in them this year, though.

Tulane

If you were around these parts last year, you were along for the ride with me on more than a few plays on the Green Wave. Tulane made a big jump last year and made it to a bowl game for the first time since 2002 with a 7-6 record, going 9-3 ATS. The bad news for Tulane is that I think they are headed for regression for a slew of reasons. To start, the Green Wave were +11 in turnover margin, which played a big part in generating points for their otherwise stagnant offensive attack. In fact, Tulane converted 35 takeaways into 120 points last season.

Season Win Total- 3.5

Tulane returns 13 starters this season, and but loses 5 starters from a defense that was the key component to their success last season. For a team that won 7 games last season, I feel that 3.5 is a strong number from oddsmakers. Simply put, I think Tulane has a really difficult time getting to 6 wins this season, and I really only see three wins on the schedule right now, and with Tulane’s lack of offense, every win will be questionable. Tulane is a team I will be bearish on to start, and evaluate from there.

Temple

It has been tough for Temple recovering from the Al Golden tenure, going 2-10 last year and 4-7 in 2012. There is some reason for optimism in Philly for Temple. To start, I don’t think Temple was as bad as their record last year indicated. The Owls lost four straight games last year after being tied or having the lead entering the 4^th quarter. Simply put, if they can improve upon that they’ll instantly improve this season.

Season Win Total- 2.5

The Owls return 13 starters, with 8 defensively. Sophomore PJ Walker came in midway through the season last year and played well, especially against the highly touted UCF defense. Temple had 5 close losses last year, and was -11 in turnover margin. If the Owls can limit their turnovers, make strides offensively, they have the pieces to flirt with bowl eligibility.

UConn

The Huskies were a mess for much of the 2013 season, starting 0-9, but won their last three games to finish with some momentum. New head coach Bob Diaco is the former Notre Dame defensive coordinator, so you have to like the direction that the program is heading under Diaco.The quarterback position was a mess for much of the season, but Casey Cochran came on strong and led the Huskies to three straight wins to close out the season.

Season Win Total-3.5

UConn definitely still has an uphill battle this season. The Huskies were -1 in turnover margin, so that didn’t play a huge role in their demise last season. They really just weren’t a good football team on either side of the ball. I don’t have a strong feeling one way or the other on the win total. I will however look to back UConn as dogs in some spots and see how this team progresses.

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