Getting Creative With Underdogs

It’s common knowledge in the sports betting industry that recreational bettors prefer betting favorites to betting underdogs. They feel more comfortable investing in the superior team. They believe there’s “insurance” because a favorite can struggle for a half or three quarters before pulling away at the end to cover the spread anyway. And, they’ve probably fallen prey to media hype that usually surrounds the superior team in a matchup. What can go wrong betting on such a great team?

And, in the past when they did try to bet on underdogs, they lost heartbreakers! This may have happened to you as well. You took a shot on an underdog for statistical or situational reasons…then they did exactly what you were hoping through the first half and even into the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, they ran out of gas, fell apart, and the cover got away from you. Even though you won “riding time” for about 50-55 minutes, you lost your money.

Bettors who are prone to feel more comfortable betting favorites in the first place…and then suffer punches to the gut when they do take occasional shots on underdogs find it difficult to invite heartbreak again.

As long as you have access to first quarter and first half betting options, it’s possible to get creative with your underdog gradings in a way that exploits the edges you find in the stats or in situational analysis. It’s silly to NOT bet underdogs out of FEAR. The market tends to charge a premium on favorites because of public betting tendencies. You need to find a way to pocket that premium.

The two most obvious options are:

Bet your underdogs only in first quarters and first halves…or
Bet your underdogs a chain sequence that includes first quarter/first half/full game

Those approaches turns that heartbreaker I just described into a moneymaker. If you only bet 1Q and 1H, you swept and cashed before the late collapse happened. If you bet all three options you went 2-1 and earned a profit instead of taking a loss.

Now, I’m not suggesting adding to your exposure with these extra bets. Keep your normal, comfortable amount of risk in play. Just split it up amongst these possibilities.

In the same order as above, assuming a standard one unit per full game bet:

Half a unit on the first quarter, half a unit on the first half…or
A third of a unit each on the first quarter, first half, and full game

Same exposure, but a way to turn results in your favor if you have a knack for finding competitive underdogs who are in good shape to play well deep into a game, but not a sure thing to manage that for the full 60 minutes. Pick whichever approach you’re most comfortable with depending on how confident you are about the 60-minute potential of the dog.

This Strategy DOES NOT Apply to All Dogs

This way of looking at your options doesn’t necessarily apply to ALL underdogs. For example, let’s say that you think that a big favorite is just flat overpriced…and you believe they’re vulnerable to a backdoor pointspread loss when the backups are on the field in the fourth quarter. Based on your handicapping, this isn’t a case where a fired up dog is likely to play great much of the way. It’s a case where a garbage time dog might sneak in if they weren’t positioned to cover initially.

Let’s say an ugly dog is +38 against a ranked power that has a bad bench. You think the market price should be more like +34, and you think there are good backdoor possibilities in garbage time. In THAT case, just stick with the dog for the full game without considering the smaller increments. You may trail 21-3 after a quarter, and 38-10 at halftime, but still cash the full-game ticket in a 52-24 garbage-time finish. Bet in a way that matches your read of the game.

When you’ve found underdogs that have a chance to truly compete because of talent or a boost from “intangibles,” quarters and halves become very appealing.

Let’s talk intangibles

Often, the main reason you like a dog in the first place is because the favorite is in a flat spot.

Maybe the favorite is in a letdown spot after a huge game last week
Maybe the favorite is in a distracted spot because of a huge game next week
Maybe the favorite won last year’s meeting in a blowout, and a talented dog has big revenge

“Flat” shows up right away. Letdown favorites come out of the gate slow-footed, they don’t wait until the fourth quarter to be flat. The fourth quarter is when they may snap out of their funk and break the heart of dog bettors! Revenge, when it comes into play in college football, isn’t something that waits until the halftime speech. The head coach of the revenge-minded dog doesn’t show embarrassing game film all week, and then say “Boys, they really kicked our butts last year. Let’s bide our time until the third quarter and then teach them a lesson!” The fired-up pups are breathing fire out of the gate.

Generally speaking, if you like an underdog for “intangible” or “motivational” reasons, then asking them to perform in the first quarter and first half of a game is the best way to exploit the edge for recreational bankrolls.

Another option to consider is fading run-based favorites in the early stages of a game. Grinders tend to pound away at an opponent’s midsection in the first half, hoping to wear them down and take advantage in the second half. They punt or settle for field goals (while running clock!) in the first half…then break things open once the defense has lost its fight. Invest on dogs who will have fight in them. Don’t have any money on the line when they’re likely to get bullied.

Barking Value

Generally speaking, most college football bettors play too many favorites…and they limit their money-making options by “keeping things simple” using only full-game bets. Many who tried betting a lot of underdogs in the past got frustrated by late losses now focus on “avoiding the heartbreak” instead of finding value. See if you can find better ways in 2014 to exploit your understanding and reads of college football with a more varied approach. You can still bet and win with your best favorite choices. But, you’ll be adding in supplemental profit with a more logical way to invest in potentially live underdogs.

Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.