As College football season rapidly approaches, I wanted to take a brief look at each team in the ACC as we say goodbye to Maryland and welcome Louisville into the fold.  The main focus of these previews will be on the schedule for each team, and projecting their performance against it.  I’m also taking a look at the projected win total for each team and determining if their is any value in betting the preseason line.

The power numbers are of my own creation, I’ve adjusted my numbers from the end of last season based on a confluence of factors to estimate the lines for every game on the schedule.  These number ratings are only a starting point for me, and will adjust as games are played and we gather actual data on the season.

 

 Virginia Tech Hokies (8-5 in 2013, 5-3 ACC) 

 Final 2013 Power Rank: 57

Preseason 2014 Power Rank: 39

Projected Record: 9-3, (6-2 ACC)

Projection: First in the ACC Coastal

2014 mini-preview:

2013 was a tale of two units for Virginia Tech, they had an inept offense that was kept in games by a nationally elite defense.  QB Logan Thomas took the large majority of the blame for that last year, but what really stood out to me in watching this team what how little support Thomas had around him.  For a long time Virginia Tech based their offense on a solid ground game, but the Hokies were utterly unable to run the ball last year (117th nationally at 2.9 yards per carry in FBS games) and had great difficulty protecting the passer (103rd nationally in sacks allowed).  Add in a lack of big-play threats (my 101th ranked big play offense) and the result was an offense that ranked 104th nationally in points per game vs FBS opposition.  For this season to result in a better finish, the offense must show significant improvement.

But there is reason for cautious optimism in Blacksburg.  Nine offensive starters return, and there is a sizeable contingent that believes the loss of Thomas to the NFL is addition by subtraction.  2nd year OC Scott Loeffler now gets to pick the guy to run his offense as he likely chooses between incumbent backup Mark Leal and Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer.  Whoever does win the job should be playing behind a more seasoned offensive line (5 lineman back who started 6 or more games last year) with a full complement of returning running backs.  The coaching staff also expects the wide outs to be more explosive this year and are quietly excited about a couple of their tight ends.

The defense sustained heavy personnel losses in the front 7 but may be returning the nation’s best defensive backfield.  Bud Foster almost always has top 25 caliber defensive units, and having a great secondary in what looks like a down season in the ACC for quarterbacks should give the less experienced front 7 a major boost.

Excellence in Special Teams has long been a hallmark of Beamer ball but last year the Hokies had my 120^th ranked Special Teams unit.  Virginia Tech finally has a kicker on scholarship and the staff is placing a renewed emphasis on their lackluster kick coverage (109^th nationally in punt return yard average).  I expect much improvement here.

It’s also worth noting that the Logan Thomas era Hokies were one of the worst Against the Spread teams over the last 3 years , going a combined 12-26 (31.5%) against the number.

Schedule:

	VIRGINIA TECH	83.0	39
Location	Opponent	Power	Opponent Power	Power Spread		Win%	Loss%
H	Bill & Mary					1	0
A	OHIO STATE	99.9	3	22.4		0	1
H	EAST CAROLINA	77.7	52	-10.3		0.79	0.21
H	GEORGIA TECH	78.0	51	-10.0		0.77	0.23
H	WESTERN MICHIGAN	53.8	119	-34.2		1	0
A	NORTH CAROLINA	84.7	32	6.2		0.34	0.66
	BYE
A	PITTSBURGH	74.0	63	-5.0		0.64	0.36
H	MIAMI (FLORIDA)	85.6	27	-2.5		0.54	0.46
H	BOSTON COLLEGE	71.1	72	-16.9		0.91	0.09
	BYE
A	DUKE	80.4	43	0.7		0.5	0.5
A	WAKE FOREST	64.2	101	-15.6		0.83	0.17
H	VIRGINIA	70.5	74	-17.5		0.94	0.06
	BYE
Projected Record:						8.26 wins	3.74 losses

5Dimes Season Projection: 8 Wins (Over -105, Under -125)

Play:  Virginia Tech Over 8 Wins (risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit)

 

Schedule Analysis:

While the non-conference schedule for Virginia Tech features the Hokies hardest game of the season (at Ohio State), overall the schedule is pretty friendly.  Each of the other three non-conference games are at home and they will be a double-digit favorite for all 3.  I expect the Hokies to be 3-1 entering the conference slate.

The ACC Coastal is extremely jumbled at the top, with 4 teams that harbor realistic hopes of making it to Charlotte.  While Virginia Tech is gets to host only 1 of the other 3 teams at home this season (Miami), the road trips to the other contenders either fall after an easy game (VT hosts Western Michigan before playing North Carolina) of after an additional prep week (the Duke game comes after a bye).

Another favorable break for the Hokies this year is that they draw the Atlantic’s two weakest teams, Boston College & Wake Forest.  Both lost a ton of production from last season and are the two worst recruiters in the conference.  Both of these games should result in solid wins.

Here is how the schedule breaks down for the Hokies:

Extremely likely wins	(20+ point favorites):	2	games	16.67%	of games
Big Favorites	(10-20 point favorties):	5	games	41.67%	of games
Solid Favorites	(4.5-9.5 point favorites):	1	game	8.33%	of games
Coin Flips	(4 point favorites to 4 point underdogs):	2	games	16.67%	of games
Solid Dogs	(4.5-9.5 point underdogs):	1	game	8.33%	of games
Big Dogs	(10-20 point underdogs):	0	games	0.00%	of games
Extremely likely losses	(20+ point underdogs):	1	game	8.33%	of games

I’ve got Virginia Tech as a decent or better favorite in 8 games for 2014.  With 7 double digit spreads on the docket, if the Hokies hold serve in those games (6 of which are at home) then they only need to steal one of the 4 single-digit spread games to push this wager and if they can take at least 2 of them then we win the bet.

While I do feel that 8-4 is the most likely record for Virginia Tech, I feel it is far more likely for them to wind up at 9-3 (winning our bet) than 7-5 (losing our bet).   This is a great example of a bet that might not win every time, but should win far more often than it loses.

Virginia Tech is a talented team with a favorable schedule who should be worse (but still top 25 caliber) on defense but much improved offensively.  If everything goes their way then 11-1 is a distinct possibility, with this floor being 7-5 if the offense once again fails to do anything besides provide the defense with opportunities to rest.  Though I like the talent level at UNC a little better, the favorable schedule has me calling for Virginia Tech to represent the Coastal division in Charlotte for the ACC championship.

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