Hang in there for this one.

The tale of the Wonderful Wizard of Oz shares multiple parallels to the the Tennessee Volunteer football team of the past decade. Let us consider Tennessee as Dorthy for intensive purposes.

Dorthy and Toto are uprooted by a nasty Tornado, and  I would love to call the Tornado as Lane Kiffin, as he was what essentially started this mess that has continued to circle (see what I did there?), but the fact that Kiffin still haunts this team means he is the Wicked Witch, hands down.

You can symbolize the obstacles and enemies that Dorthy and the crew they faced on their trip to the Emerald City with cast members such as Derek Dooley, Tyler Bray and Tyler Bray’s beer bottles.

So where is Tennessee at? Clearly they aren’t at the Emerald City yet. That would mean they are once again competing for the SEC East Title. Tennessee has just discovered Scarecrow, Tin Woodman, and the Cowardly Lion; all key parts in bringing Tennessee back home.

Butch Jones is the answer to this Tennessee Vols football team.

Okay, onto the good stuff.

2013 In Review

Lets start with the fact that Vanderbilt has more wins in their last 20 games, than Tennessee has in their last 36. It was a rough start for Butch Jones, although there was and is lots of promise.

This team had post-season in their grasp last year. Not kidding. This team had Florida and Georgia on the ropes. Vanderbilt they led until the last minute. They should have taken one of those three. They also took down 11th ranked SC.

So, when you look at it that way, the season is probably a disappointment as it couldn’t have gotten much worse. A lot of bounces didn’t go their way.

In 2013, Tennessee just really couldn’t figure anything out in the passing game. They rank in the bottom 3rd in all passing stats. Surprisingly their run game and OL were very good, both ranking top 50 in the country. This is not a good sign for 2014, and I’ll tell you why later in the preview.

The biggest issue with this version of the Tennessee team is that they couldn’t perform in important spots on offense. Red Zone O ranked 103rd, and 3rd down conversions 95th. Not good at all.

On defense, the secondary was very solid, giving up plays, but not the big ones.

We will see a much different Tennessee team this year.

2014 Preview

I’m going to start with the QB position and carry on from where I left off above. With such a good OL and running game last year, the QB position was an absolute disaster. It should have been better, and leaves me wary of the Vols QB this year as well. While the QB should be improved, things are not going to get any easier this year as they lose every single senior starter from last season. They have 6 returning starts, total, on the offensive line. One of the worst numbers in the country.

With that being said, the skilled positions surrounding whoever the QB is are solid. The WR corp returns some starters and is deep. Marlin Lane returns with frosh Jalen Hurd probably sharing the load with him. I still foresee some growing pains for this offense.

On the defensive side of the ball, Tennessee seems to have some of the similar problems as offense. They have to replace the entire DL. That’s not necessarily a bad thing because their defense could not stop the run last year, but if they had better players, they probably would have been playing. The strength of this defense will come on the back 7. They are fast and experienced, and that will be necessary. When you can’t stop the run or get after the QB, it sometimes doesn’t matter though.

Schedule Analysis

Deeeeamn. With a team that probably needs some time for the trenches to develop on both sides of the ball, the beginning of the schedule does not cut them any breaks. They start out with a Chuckie Keaton led team. Anything can happen in that game, especially if the Tennessee team takes them for granted.

They then go to Oklahoma for a game that makes sense for the Sooners, and not so much sense for the Vols. Georgia and Florida in back to back weeks. At Ole Miss, Bama and SC in 3 consecutive games, all possibly and probably losses.

The last 3 games should be wins in my book, but that depends on if the Vols escape the hell beforehand without big injuries.

Win Total Analysis – 6 (UN -165)

I can’t possibly see how you can play the over in this one. That’s assuming Tennessee wins 3 games against Oklahoma and/or SEC teams, which probably isn’t happening. Tennessee recruits with the best of them, don’t get me wrong, but with the question marks in the trenches and the new QB and the unproven ability to attack the opposing QB, you have to stay off.

The Under has value in my book, especially considering the fact UT may lose to Utah State. At home against UK off the bye is probably the only SEC game that I think you can count on UT winning, and that’s not even a gimme this year, trust me.

ATS/Total Analysis

This is a tough one for me. The spread determination clearly depends on how the QB situation pans out.

Regardless of that situation, I see the Vols as an Under team actually, at least at first. I think it takes awhile for the offense to gel, meaning that they will sustain some drives, but trouble to complete the total package, multiple times. The defense on the other hand will struggle to stop the run, and will probably struggle to get after the QB too, but they will be a bend, don’t break defense. I can see some teams eating time off the clock, and moving the ball, but struggling to score on this fast, athletic back 7.

Any Final Thoughts?

I think like a few other SEC teams, this team has some promise following this season for sure. It’s a bonus if they figure out the trenches. It’s hard to compete in any division when you lose your entire OL and DL, especially in the best conference versus the scariest DLs in the country.

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