C-USA Football 2014: Finding Value

With the season fast approaching, I am going to take a look at teams inside the C-USA, MAC, and Sun Belt and provide some analysis on where I think teams are going to be overvalued and undervalued. As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Smithers513.

UTSA

If you followed any of my write-ups last year, you’ll know my documented love affair with the Roadrunners. In only their 3rd season in college football, UTSA posted a 7-5 record, and won their last five games. 19 starters are returning from last year’s team, and the 3 other projected starters are all seniors, making UTSA the most experienced team in the country.

The Roadrunners were 7-4-1 ATS last season, going 4-2-1 as underdogs, and 3-2 as favorites.

The main area of concern for UTSA is going to be production from the quarterback position. Senior Tucker Carter is going to have to step in and fill in for Eric Soza. But, if you were going to draw up a best case scenario for a new quarterback to step into, it would be harder to envision a scenario better than what Carter will face. Not only does he get to take snaps behind an offensive line that returns all 5 starters, 4 of which being seniors, but every one of his skill players returns, all of which being seniors.

The Roadrunners open up the season at Houston, home to Arizona, then at Oklahoma State. They will likely be 0-3 heading into week 4, which I think is going to create some value on them down the stretch. The team is loaded with seniors, and I can’t imagine anything would make that group and head coach Larry Coker more proud than sending his first graduating class out with a bowl appearance.

UTSA Football

Marshall

The Thundering Herd are coming off a 10 win season, their most since 2002, and boost one of the nation’s best QB’s in Rakeem Cato. Marshall was 9-5 ATS last season, and was an underdog only once all season, which was at Blacksburg against Virginia Tech, and were only 8.5 point dogs. On paper, there is a whole lot to like about the Herd. They bring back a bunch of major weapons and the core of an offensive line that anchored the nation’s #7 scoring offense last season. The defense wasn’t a strength last season, at times crippling the Herd, but they bring back 7 starters, including all 3 leading tacklers.

Going into the season, Marshall is going to get a lot of love from the talking heads as a team that could go undefeated, and deservedly so. The Thundering Herd have an extremely easy schedule, with their toughest road game likely being against an Akron team that won 5 games last season. Oddsmakers were no stranger to the Herd’s covering prowess with their high octane offense last season, with Marshall being chalk in 13 of their 14 games.

Marshall really struggled last year on the road against decent opponents, going 2-5 ATS and 3-4 SU. The Herd are a tough team to handicap at points, because they have little trouble blowing inferior teams out of the water, but struggle on the road against decent competition. With Marshall being a sexy team going into the season, I’ll definitely have to pick my spots when backing the Herd.

Rice

Rice is coming off their best season since 2008, finishing 10-4 and were C-USA champions after defeating Marshall in the championship game at home last season. On the surface, 10 wins seems like a solid year, but I think that number last year was severely inflated. The Owls strength of schedule last season was 81, and without Texas A&M, Marshall, and the bowl game against Mississippi State, who knows what that number really should have been.

Rice had 17 returning starters last season, and this year that number drops to 12. The losses are at some key positions as well, losing their quarterback, top two producing running backs, and top two leading tacklers from a season ago. The Owls open up the season with two probable losses at Notre Dame and Texas A&M. Rice also has a more difficult C-USA slate this year, drawing Marshall from the East at Marshall in a revenge spot for the Herd. The Owls had 6 wins with a margin of 9 points or smaller last year. They were also 3-4 ATS as favorites, and the three wins were against the pitiful trio of New Mexico St, Louisiana Tech, and UTEP, who went a combined 8-28 last season. Simply put, if Rice gets treated like a formidable favorite based on their season last year, there will be value going against the Owls laying points.

I’m not calling for a complete regression for the Owls, but a 10 win season seems highly unrealistic. I project Rice to be closer to the .500 mark and would consider a bowl appearance a success.

Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles have flat out been terrible the last two years, amassing only 1 win in the last two seasons. It has taken a lot to talk myself into seeing Southern Miss as a team that’s going to present value. Last year, the Golden Eagles were -19 in turnover margin, ranking them 123rd in the nation. If that trends reverses even marginally, it probably equates to a few more wins and at the minimum a few more covers.

Souther Miss brings back 16 returning starters, split evenly amongst offense and defense. Quarterback Nick Mullens is going into his sophomore campaign, after starting 6 games as a freshman. The offense has good mojo going into the season, scoring 62 points in the season finale against UAB. The offensive line was a major weakness last year, but returns three starters and adds a couple of JUCO players to shore up a line that should be much improved.

Southern Miss was a three score underdog in eight games last year. I doubt that bettors are going to be running to the window to back the Golden Eagles this season either. But, for me there’s some things to like in finding good value on Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles will also be jumping into year two of Coach Todd Monken’s tenure, and I expect Southern Miss to finish with 3-6 wins.