A few weeks ago I told everyone via the newsletter that I would begin breaking down the feedback from the personal emails I sent out to all The Saturday Edge premium subscribers and I followed that up with this article on the number of weekly picks we will offer this coming season (the quality vs quantity debate).

Today I will attempt to address what was easily the most debated topic in the Premium section last year, UNIT SIZE (and just to help clarify for SoonerBS, I am referring to the size of the wager for each game :)).

Different Units Wagered 

As many of you know from being participants on the site via the comments section last season, unit size was a very volatile issue.

Many Premium subscribers were confused because different cappers used different unit sizes when wagering on games. I received numerous comments and suggestions like the following:

[box] Pez….Ya know this would be easier to track if all the cappers used the same unit system.

OR

With all things being said it is difficult to follow here as EVERYONE has a different unit amount.[/box]

However, like the quantity vs quality debate, there are no simple answers because I received just as many comments like this:

[box] I liked the way you guys did things – top to bottom. I know a lot of people on the site complained about a lot of minor things, but I think what you guys did was great. I like how each capper does unit sizes differently, plays different amount of games, etc.

OR

Debates over unit size is pointless. All a unit size does is indicate the capper’s confidence that he sees on a particular game. I personally like how each capper varies their unit sizes. It gives me an idea of which games they feel more confident about and I can adjust my wager accordingly.[/box] 

Unit Size Philosophies

The problem with trying to determine a “universal” unit size for multiple cappers is that different cappers have different unit size philosophies and different risk tolerance levels.

Some of our handicappers are more aggressive (Maggiore, Max & Trent) than others (Me & GoSooners).

And believe me, I understand Max & Trent’s philosophy about wagering more (units) on games that have a “higher % win rates.” It sounds great in theory that you should wager 1 unit on games that will hit 53% or 54%, 2 units on games that will win 55% or 56%, 3 units on games that will win 57% or 58%, etc.

But the problem with that is NO ONE knows for sure what that win rate is. They are just making a calculated estimation (and some cappers are better than others at estimating their edge), and since the game of college football is continually changing, how can anyone be 100% sure that a particular game is going to have a 57% win rate?

From a personal perspective, when I come across a game where all the variables line up (as Max likes to say), I will wager a little more on that game. But there is no chance I am wagering 3x or 4x my normal play. Too many things can happen. It’s an oblong ball and it sometimes bounces funny.

However, everyone has their own opinion on the subject, and that is fine. However, the main point I want to convey about multiple units used by multiple cappers is that they really should only be used as GUIDELINES to help everyone determine how strongly a capper feels about a particular game.

My Solution for the 2014 Season

I had a long, detailed explanation for this section. But in the end I believe the solution for the unit’s debate is pretty much the same one we used for the quality vs quantity issue.

Individual Handicappers – It’ll be business as usual. Single units, multiple units, star systems, BEST BETS, etc ….. who cares? They are all just each individual handicapper’s measure of how strongly they feel about a particular game/wager.

This way it’ll be up to each individual Premium subscriber to determine how much they want to wager on each game, based on their own personal wagering philosophies and risk tolerance levels.

For example, if you see me on USC for 1.5 units (my maximum single game wager) and Sabert on USC for 5 units, you’d know that we both like the Trojans and are more confident than usual about the wager. But it is still up to the individual handicapper to determine whether or not they wager their “typical” unit size, a little more or substantially more.

Consensus Picks (BEST BETS/Top Plays) – As previously discussed, this new service/product is being developed specifically for 1) our subscribers that either do not have the time and/or the inclination to handicap their own games, and/or, 2) less experienced bettors and handicappers who want and need more guidance on how many units or what percentage of their bankroll should be wagered on each game.

In an effort to make the Premium Consensus Picks unit size as easy to understand as possible, we will just more or less emulate Right Angle Sports and rate each game at 1 unit (1% of bankroll) or 1.5 units (1.5% of bankroll).

In Conclusion

Similar to the quality vs quantity issue and solution, I believe this solution to the unit size debate will satisfy both groups of TSE subscribers.

It will be the status quo for everyone who follows the individual cappers and makes decisions based on their weekly game analysis, write-ups and SUGGESTED wager (unit) amounts.

For those subscribers who want to just follow the BEST BETS or TOP PLAYS for the week, the unit amount per wager will be specifically spelled out for them. No guess work involved.

And for those new subscribers (and older subscribers who are still a little murky on the issue), it was suggested to me that I should write a “How to use our picks & game analyses” article for new and/or inexperienced handicappers before the season starts. I will definitely do that and I will definitely revisit and re-explain the units wagered topic.

Do you agree, disagree, or have additional thoughts and ideas? Leave me a comment below and let’s keep this conversation going.

Thanks for everyone’s support and listening to my thoughts.

Pez

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