Auburn Football 2014 – Better, Worse or about the Same?

Offense

After watching A-Day and really digesting everything that happened, I see every indication that the offense will be much better than it was in 2013. Even though they led the nation in rushing yardage, this Auburn team has the potential to become an even more incredible offense. Last year, Gus Malzahn was 100% committed to pounding the football, playing at a breakneck speed, and thriving off of quick reads and a superior offensive line. Opposing teams knew what was coming, and Auburn made no efforts to try and hide that, but the Tigers still ran all over everyone they faced.

This year is going to be much different. The running game is still going to be a pretty big factor, with Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant currently being used in a back-by-committee approach. Artis-Payne resembles more of what Tre Mason did last year, being a bruising, between-the-tackles, find-the-hole kind of guy, while Grant is more of a home-run, shot-from-a-cannon type of runner. Both will be vital to the offense, and we still haven’t even seen 5-star recruit Racean “Roc” Thomas yet, who will join the team in the fall.

Auburn QB Nick Marshall (John Reed-USA TODAY Sports)

Without a doubt though, the passing game is going to have an insanely larger role than it did previously. Sammie Coates is still the primary option, and he’s going to get plenty of opportunities to show off his (hand-timed) 4.18 40-yard dash on deep routes and screens. Across from him, JUCO WR D’haquille “Duke” Williams adds a massive target for Nick Marshall to throw to. Even during the spring game, Williams showed what a game-changer he can be, reeling in five passes for 88 yards and a nice catch on a fade route in the end zone.

In the end, Nick Marshall is going to be the deciding factor. He’s progressed as a passer, finding the intermediate routes instead of launching the deep ball every chance he gets. He showed much more poise in the pocket, exhibiting solid mechanics on his throws, and he still showed off his trademark speed on a few options. If Marshall continues to work on being a better passer and not necessarily a “thrower”, this offense is going to explode.

Defense

Ellis Johnson came into last year with a group of guys that got shredded during all of the 2012 season. With his trademark 4-2-5 look, Johnson got the defense to play infinitely harder, but there was still some worry. Too often, the D would give up massive amounts of yardage, only to dig their heels in the ground inside the red zone and do their best to prevent a score. It worked sometimes, sure, but that kind of method isn’t sustainable.

The defense, if anything, is going to be the biggest determining factor as to whether or not Auburn can reach the inaugural College Football Playoff. They lose several guys, many of which were either starters, vital contributors, or both. Dee Ford and Nosa Eguae (DL), Jake Holland (LB), and Chris Davis, Ryan White, and Ryan Smith (DB) are all graduating, and some are entering the NFL Draft.

Guys already on the team will fill most of those spots, but Derrick Moncrief (Duke Williams’ teammate in JUCO) transferred to Auburn, and will take over at field safety. Moncrief got his first taste of game action in front of a crowd at A-Day, and he looked phenomenal. He was fantastic at reading plays before they happened, he stuck with his assignments, and he looked sharp on the field in general.

Simply because the defense will be more accustomed to Johnson’s scheme, the defense will perform better this year. Perhaps, even good enough to be the difference between losing the title game by 13 seconds, and winning it.

Will Auburn be better, worse, or about the same as last year?

Really, this comes down to three things:

Will Marshall grow enough as a quarterback to keep opposing defenses guessing? If he continues to showcase what he did on A-Day, opponents won’t be able to stack the box and key in on the ground game like they tended to do last year. With Coates and Williams on the outside, along with Ricardo Louis and Quan Bray manning the slots, Marshall should have enough weapons to keep defensive coordinators guessing. Whether or not he consistently hits his targets will be critical to opening up the offense.

Will the defense step it up? Really, there’s no reason to suspect that the defense will be any worse than it was. In 2013, it was serviceable, but to get over that hump, it’s going to have to grow as a unit. No more busted coverages, no more broken tackles, and no more miscommunication. To get better, the defense has to realize that last year’s breaks aren’t going to come again. They’ve got to be the difference between allowing a game-winning drive, and stopping one cold.

Miracle catch vs Georgia

How will they respond after last season? If there was one thing that set Auburn apart from the field in 2013, it was definitely the miracles. The Prayer in Jordan-Hare and the Kick Six most certainly won’t happen again. Auburn knows this, and Malzahn is going to hammer it home to the guys that they won’t be able to rely on those kinds of plays again. They’re going to have to simply win games themselves. I firmly believe they will have the right mindset going into the season, and there’s not really any reasons to suggest they’ll be banking on miracles again.

So, looking at the schedule, there’s not really too many games Auburn should lose. If anything, they might drop one of the two road games at the end, either in Athens or Tuscaloosa. Other than that, essentially every game is winnable.

Kansas State might have the biggest potential for a trap game, and although KSU isn’t a cupcake, they’re definitely no laughing matter. LSU doesn’t have a returning QB, so they’ll still be figuring that out when they travel to Jordan-Hare early in the season; Texas A&M lost Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans, so that game shouldn’t cause too much trouble; South Carolina has their QB already, but he won’t be used to facing top-tier teams on the road yet.

Georgia might have the biggest potential for a slip-up, if only because they’ve got their QB already and Todd Gurley is going to be a monster. The Alabama game is a toss-up. Saban doesn’t have his starting QB yet, and that might not be set until Jacob Coker arrives on campus in the fall. As of right now, Auburn should win that game, but the Iron Bowl is so unpredictable that it could go either way.

I guess my prediction would be 11-1, and I say they drop the Georgia game. Depending on how the rest of the nation does, that record will probably be good enough to get them into the College Football Playoff, where I think they’ll be fired up after coming so close last year in the BCS National Championship. They’ll use that motivation to their advantage and claim the first inaugural College Football Playoff championship, and Auburn’s third title.

Sam Butler of College and Magnolia provided the information for our Auburn Football 2014 Spring Wrap Up. For more Auburn football information, commentary and analysis, you can follow Sam on Twitter @sam02butler.