In our last newsletter I told everyone I would begin breaking down the feedback from the personal emails I sent out to all The Saturday Edge premium subscribers. My plan was to do so via newsletter posts, but there was so much great information, suggestions and ideas that needed to be covered, more time and space was required.

So the plan is to begin writing some articles about the feedback and I’ll post them here on the site. That way I can break all the subject matter down into smaller sections and we can continue our discussions. So let’s get to it.

First of all I received well over 100 responses to my email, so you can imagine all the numerous (and conflicting) suggestions, ideas, compliments and complaints that were offered. However, without a doubt the three most quantitative subjects were 1). The  number of weekly picks, 2). The timing of the picks, and 3). The various unit sizes wagered.

Today we will discuss the number of weekly picks, including my ideas and solution(s).

Quality vs Quantity College Football Picks

Based on all the correspondence I have had and all the feedback I have received from everyone, not in just the past several months, but over the past several years, there is NO DOUBT as to what is the most valuable service TSE offers: Analysis, analysis, analysis.

However, for every email I received praising us for our weekly game analyses and write-ups, and wanting more, I received nearly as many suggesting there are too many picks and/or they want to see less picks.

I was going to give you all some examples of what I am talking about, but I found an email from my man Ralph that pretty much sums up the conundrum in a nutshell:

[box] “I think I would prefer just the strongest plays, though I would like to see all the plays that the handicappers made. Hope that doesn’t sound like a contradiction.

You guys work very hard and the price is very, very reasonable.” [/box]

As I have discussed with several of you already, the majority of TSE Premium subscribers can be broken up into two distinct groups:

1. What I call the “Do it yourself” handicappers. These are the guys that more or less handicap their own games and they are looking for as much information, analysis, insight, etc., that they can find. These are the guys that want us to handicap and provide detailed write-ups for as many games as possible so they can pick and choose the games they are interested in betting on. 

2. The second group are the guys looking to make picks based on our recommendations. They are looking for our “Top Plays.” This is the group that I feel we didn’t do a good job of helping out last year.

And the reason I say we didn’t do a good job is because, for lack of a better way to say it (or sugarcoat it), we more or less ignored this group.

Mind you it wasn’t on purpose, we (TSE handicappers) all just kept moving forward – business as usual – with the things we had done the previous year, not realizing we needed far more structure in how we made and presented the information and picks last season.

Here is my take on Quality vs Quantity 

Here is how I see the quality vs quantity issue.

Quantity – I personally do not believe this is even an issue. The majority of our subscribers want to read our thoughts and analyses on the various games we each select and wager on every week. So we will definitely continue to provide this information.

[box] “While I appreciate the picks each week, I value the information I receive more.”[/box] [box] “The biggest value to me is the clear coherent analysis we get preseason and throughout the year. That is worth the price of admission.”[/box]

Each individual capper will continue to provide their picks and write-ups/game analysis similar to how we have done it the past two years, with no “cap” on the number of picks.

Some weeks we will have more picks then other weeks, but I can assure you, and I believe I speak for all TSE cappers, we are not just tossing garbage out there and “hoping” for the best.

From my personal perspective I do not believe there is any set amount of games a person should wager on per week. Value is value and time permitting, I like to cap as many games as possible throughout the week.  I’ve had plenty of 19-3 & 10-17 weeks to go along with the 7-2 or 1-6 weeks.

If you’re comfortable betting 20 games, then bet 20 games. If you are only comfortable wagering on 5, then 5 it is …… and I already know what you’re thinking …. “Which 5 should I bet on?”

Quality – That brings us to the quality issue. Here I will give you a few examples of some of the feedback I received so you’ll get a better idea of the issues involved and then can better judge whether or not my solution(s) either alleviate, or better yet, eliminate them.

[box] “My biggest challenge and ultimate conundrum, is and always has been trying to figure out whose picks to play.

Is the theory to play every single cappers plays each week, according to their unit and you will come out ahead?” [/box]

[box]                             “Is 30 picks too many picks?”[/box]

So to answer “Is the theory to play every single cappers plays each week?” and/or “Is 30 picks too many picks?” My short answer would be no to the first question and yes to the second one.

As stated earlier, the majority of our subscribers are looking for as much information & analysis so they can do their own handicapping and/or make their own decisions on which games to wager on. Therefore analysis and write-ups on 30 games is perfect for them because they are only going to wager on the games they like.

However, as the two above questions clearly indicate, there were/are subscribers who were confused as to which cappers they should follow and which games they should bet.

[box] “I would also like to see the cappers post their TOP plays. Not 3 top and 4 not so strong. If I’m paying for great analysis and reading material (which you provide), I want to pay for your STRONGEST plays, even if it means less plays.”[/box]

[box] “By paying for a service, I want the best picks with the highest ROI. I was afraid by picking and choosing, I would pick the losers and miss the winners, but that took a hefty part of my bankroll to risk.” [/box]

Another piece of advice I did receive was the following:

[box]“If you don’t have a great pick for the weekend, don’t list any picks. I have other services who operate that way and I’ve had better luck on those. I think you should only have what you consider locks to be listed during the season.”[/box]

My initial response was “locks?” Of course, why didn’t I think of that?

But seriously, after re-reading it a few times, something stood out to me:

“I have other services who operate that way and I’ve had better luck on those” – This comment really got me to thinking and you know what? The Saturday Edge isn’t like any other “service” out there.

I believe we are unique in that we provide exceptional college football handicapping information (both pre-season and during the season) and detailed analysis & write-ups on 25+ games each week, and we do it at an incredibly reasonable price.  We are not just providing a handful of weekly picks.

My solution to the quality issue for 2014

However, I do realize we have subscribers that just do not have enough time and/or the inclination to handicap their own games, or to sift and sort through numerous handicapping posts to pick and choose which games they want or should follow.

They want us to tell them which games to wager on and they want our “Best Bets” …. the game(s) we are most confident in that particular week.

For those subscribers I believe we have not done a very good job “distinguishing” which games they should wager on. We have pretty much left it up to each individual to select and choose which games he/she wants to play.

So what’s the plan going forward? How is TSE going to better serve this group?

BEST BETS/TOP PLAYS

We touched on this subject during last bowl season when we introduced and experimented with the “consensus” idea, and I believe it is the solution to everyone’s problems.

Sabert, GoSooners and I will begin discussing the games we like on Sunday evening immediately after the point spreads are released. We are also going to try and set up a “podcast” of that conversation so you guys will have an idea of which games we will be looking to cap throughout the week, just in case you want to jump on any early lines.

Then throughout the week (days & times yet to be determined, but we’ll make sure we are consistent) we will list all the “consensus” plays that the three of us agree upon in a separate post that ONLY includes those plays.

This way subscribers will know exactly which plays we believe are the BEST BET/TOP PLAYS for the week and anyone just looking for “quality” picks won’t have to sift through 5 individual threads, they can just go straight to this weekly post.

You can have your cake & eat it too

Obviously we haven’t worked out the details yet, but we have a lot of time to discuss this concept and how best to proceed. However I believe this solution will satisfy both groups of TSE subscribers. 

It will be the status quo for everyone who enjoys our weekly game analysis and write-ups and uses the information to make game selections and/or uses the analysis to second guess their own analysis (hopefully for the better :))

For those subscribers who want to just follow our BEST BETS or TOP PLAYS for the week, they will have between 5-10 games to wager on each week and they won’t have to sift through all the individual posts.

Those are my thoughts and my idea on how best to address the quality vs quantity college football picks issue. Do you agree, disagree, have additional thoughts and ideas? Leave me a comment below and let’s keep this conversation going.

Thanks for everyone’s support and listening to my thoughts.

Pez

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