Every person that I’ve known who wagers on college football has had their kryptonite teams when it comes to winning. They are totally confused when it comes to capping these teams. And they are left thoroughly frustrated after a loss, and swear they’ll never bet on that team again. Have you been there? I know I have many times over the years.

There are some teams that year after year are simply chronic problems for me to cap. There are others who have become recent problems due to coaching changes or moving to different conferences, or both. The five teams I list here may not be a problem in the future, but in the last few years have contributed to a few more gray hairs.

Everybody will have a different list, but these are my least favorite teams to cap in college football. But now that the early GOY lines have been released, my view could change a bit on a few of these teams. 

1.Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Huskers have simply been brutal to cap. From Callahan to Bo Pelini, they have been a mess for many years now. They’ve never shown any steady form. They lose games they are supposed to win, and win or cover games that you think is a bad spot for them.

Many factors are involved in why they usually don’t live up to expectations. They no longer recruit as well as their college blueblood reputation. Plus they’ve had an adjustment period of moving into a new conference. And of course Bo Pelini. A coach who has had to learn on the job. Other than being a very short time interim coach,  he didn’t have any previous head coaching experience before taking the Huskers job. Which usually spells bad news for most teams.

Betting Outlook: Poor

Until Bo Pelini is fired and they can get some semblance of good QB play and consistent defense, I don’t see much changing with this team. The hardest teams to figure out are those chronic 6-6 ATS type of teams like Nebraska. I would rather bet the 2-10 teams. At least you know what they are probably going to do about every week.

With Nebraska, there is no form to hang your hat on. Just when you think they might have something going for them, they disappoint. I don’t see any wholesale changes this season to make me think differently of this team.

2.Virginia Tech Hokies

This has been a tough team to get a handle on for the last few years. It has been mainly due to QB play and an offense that averaged just 350 yards per game last year. There’s nothing wrong with their defense. Bud Foster’s group is still giving up less than 300 ypg. But their special teams are no longer “special.”  

They simply aren’t the same dominant team we saw a few years ago. Despite all of the coaching experience, they are looking a little like FSU did in Bobby Bowden’s final few seasons. Things appear to be getting a little stale in Blacksburg.

Betting Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic

The Hokies haven’t been able to put together a run of more than 3 ATS wins in a row for the last 3 years. There were games in which they looked good last year, like their wins at Miami and Ga Tech as touchdown dogs. But then they would turn around and lose to teams like Boston College, and an embarrassing loss at home to Maryland as 15 point favorites. There has been no form whatsoever with this team. They went 8-4 last year, but only 4-7-1 ATS. Only 12 starters return this year, and no Logan Thomas. But is this a bad thing? Maybe not.

With only 15 wins in the last two years, I think the expectations will be much lower for VT this season. Which is a good thing for a blueblood. Beamer has shaken up his offensive coaching staff and should have an improved rushing attack, which always ranks high in my book. Plus VT has become somewhat of the forgotten ACC team now that FSU and Clemson have emerged. I can see some possible value for the Hokies in certain spots. Especially those pickem games where I feel Beamer has the upper hand against the opposing coach.

3.Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Independents have always been kind of tough for me to cap. Mainly because of the way they alternate between AQ and non-AQ schools on their schedule. Notre Dame can look terrible against the teams they are suppose to crush, like last year their squeakers against Navy or Purdue as double digit favorites. But then they can turn around the next week and beat the likes of BCS Bowl bound Michigan St. or Arizona State on the road. 

The Irish have always been a tough team to get a read on from week to week. When a team goes 8-4 but only 5-7 ATS you have to tread lightly when you’re betting on them to cover.

Betting Outlook: Optimistic

The very popular public teams with a winning tradition like Notre Dame are always going to be a tricky bet. I usually only find a couple decent betting opportunities with this team each season, if that. But the best time that I’ve found to bet the Irish is when the public is close to giving up on them. For example last year they got a decent line against Arizona State after losing at home to Oklahoma the week before. And they won outright. They also surprisingly got even odds at home against BYU after dropping a road game to Pitt, and won that game straight up.

So if there is anything you can take out of this, it is to wait until Notre Dame falls out of favor with the public before making a wager on them. But now that the early Game Of The Year lines have been released and coming off a somewhat disappointing 8-4 season, I think the Irish are being a little undervalued for the talent they have coming back. This could possibly be a top 10 team. And they play only 3 true road games all year. I never thought I would say Notre Dame and Value in the same sentence, but when I see them getting +24 at FSU, really?

Texas Longhorns

Being a Sooners fan I was taught from an early age to hate the Longhorns. But losing bets on this team has given me one further excuse to hate them. The Horns have gone 20-28 ATS the last 4 years. So they aren’t exactly a team you want to bet blind. Or if you are like me, you don’t want to bet on at all. 

Since their demise after going to the BCS Title Game in 2009, most of my bets have been against them. They are a very unpredictable team because they seldom live up to their talent. And in those rare occasions they do come to play, it’s usually a missed opportunity or my money is on the other team. It all came to a head last year with their blowout loss to BYU and the firing of their defensive coordinator a couple games into the season. This has been a team with no direction. So it was long overdue for Mack Brown to say goodbye.

Betting Outlook: Fair

I think it’s better to take a wait and see approach with Texas. The great majority of the time when a longtime tenured coach leaves, it’s extremely hard for a new “outsider” coach to come in and make drastic changes to the program and have a successful season by their standards. Strong is supposedly getting rid of the country club mentality, but we don’t know how many of these players are going to perform under a coach who didn’t recruit them. It’s usually a bad bet with this type of renovation project.

The big problem with the Horns is now that Baylor has emerged and OU is still a strong team, and KSU is also in the mix, Strong is a little behind the eight ball in trying to get this team up to speed and be competitive against coaches and styles he isn’t at all familiar with. Much of it will probably come down to QB play. But so far they haven’t had the answer. And with Ash just one big hit away from the funny farm and the inexperience behind him, the Horns are walking on gilded splinters.

Florida Gators

The Gators were in a dead heat for the fifth spot with USC and Michigan. All of these teams have given me headaches for the past few seasons. But the one thing that puts UF over the top is their dreadful 14-21-1 ATS record under Muschamp. Last year was simply a nightmare for the Gators and their backers. Granted injuries played a big part in their 4-8 record, but losing to Ga. Southern at home as 28 point faves? C’mon!

The question is was it the 13 season ending injuries, or was it Muschamp? And will UF bounce back this year? I think it’s probably both. And I think they will somewhat bounce back from 2013. Muschamp did bring in a new offensive coordinator to shake up a simply awful bottom 20 UF offense. And Driskel should be healthy again at QB to go along with a good rushing game and an always great defense.

Betting Outlook: Fair to partly cloudy

I don’t really know how to approach UF this season. On the one hand, I know whenever a successful blueblood team has a season like they did last year, they usually bounce back the next season. The problem is I don’t know how successful they will be in the first season of going from a power running attack to a spread passing attack. One thing we know is it can’t be any worse than it was last season. So we could see a different UF team in 2014, or not.

I still have a problem figuring this team out, even when they are good. In 2012 UF went 11-1 and made a BCS game. But the only stat that counts with me is they were still just 7-5 ATS. And that season was bookend by going 4-8 ATS in 2011 and 3-8-1 ATS in 2013. I think their win ceiling in 2014 is probably going to be around 8 games, so my best guess is a slight bounce back to a 6-6 or 7-5 ATS type of season because of a bit lower expectations than previous years. Which is usually a good thing. But pick your spots carefully because this could be a make or break year for Muschamp.

---