Handicapping the Early College Football Season
Many people have recently asked me what the difference is between handicapping the early college football season and the “regular” season.
In the early part of the season we typically have some out of conference match-ups, and a time for learning. Don’t confuse that though with there not being any value, because there is lots.
Here are some of the things to look for that are different than the traditional capping.
News and Team Updates
I think one of the most important parts of my capping is information. Information is king in today’s age, and numbers and lines are getting tighter because of the widely available amount of information.
There have been multiple games I can remember, like fading WVU early last year, where the coach has flat out said something like, “we just aren’t ready yet” or “not everything has come together.”
You can pick alot up when you read or watch a coaches mid-week interview. Coaches don’t like to say that their team isn’t ready for the game, but they also don’t like to give the fans tons of false hopes. So following the teams is the one of the most important things for me in all capping, but especially early on.
Returning Coaches
The next biggest thing to analyze is coaches that leave a program for a better job, or programs that acquire a better coach. I really don’t like betting on teams that lose their head coach, unless they are losing a coach that was negative, or a coach that the players have given up on. I will give you two examples and then some stats from this season.
Coaching Upgrade: After the 2011 season, Houston Nutt was fired for a no-name coach at the time, Hugh Freeze. Huge upgrade, and if you did your research, you would have known that.
Some teams that I think got huge upgrades this year with coaches or coordinators:
Texas
Washington (possibly)
Michigan Offensive Coordinator
Georgia Defensive Coordinator
Teams that got big-time downgrades:
Arky St (4 coaches in 4 years)
Vanderbilt
Boise St
Western Kentucky
Louisville Defensive Coordinator
Returning Production and Leadership
Senior Leadership
One of the first things I look at is not how many starters return, or how much production returns, but just how many seniors are returning. I think seniors are a huge part of the culture of the team, and if a large class of seniors are leaving, the team is going to change (sometimes for better, sometimes for worse).
Below are some teams to be aware of, and keep in mind, i attempted to remove players leaving for the draft early as well.
Lots of Seniors Returning:
- Virginia (8.91% of Roster Leaving)
- South Carolina (8.57%)
- Indiana (10%)
- UTSA (10.28%)
- Appalachian State (10.38%)
- Old Dominion (11.34%)
- Northwestern (11.5%)
- Penn State (11.61%)
- UCF (11.76%)
- Mississippi St(11.82%)
Lots of Seniors Leaving:
- Stanford (33.64% Leaving)
- New Mexico State (31.68%)
- Notre Dame (31.19 %)
- Arizona State (28.71%)
- Rutgers (28.57%)
- Louisiana Tech (25%)
- Georgia State (24.77%)
- Florida Atlantic (24.53%)
- South Alabama (24.14%)
- The U (23.64%)
How soon we forget…
Returning Starters
Next I look at how many returning starters are returning. Returning Starters is typically correlated with teams starting off the season “quick.” But, some things can hinder that, such as a new coach.
Below are some teams that return a lot of starters, and only a few starters:
Most Starters Returning
- Central Michigan (19)
- UTSA (19)
- FIU (18)
- Nevada (18)
- Indiana (18)
- Army, UL Lafayette, Maryland, Memphis, Houston, Northwestern, Old Dominion (tied at 17)
Least Starters Returning
- Utah State (7)
- Oklahoma St (9)
- Baylor (9)
- Wisconsin (9)
- East Carolina (9)
- North Texas (9)
- Missouri (9)
- Arizona State, Georgia State, FAU, Buffalo, Troy, Tennessee, Vandy, Kansas St, BC, Wake (tied at 10)
QB’s Returning
Having a quarterback returning is huge for the offense in most instances, specially for those teams that have good passing statistics. It means that a coach does not have to worry about a new QB learning the system, getting used to playing under the lights, being used to game speed, etc. Keep this in mind.
Recruiting
Finally, the last thing that I take a look at is recruiting. I come up with a 3 year recruiting rank, making the recruiting class 3 years ago more heavily weighted than the most recent class.
The reason that I do this is because no matter how many great recruits a team gets in 2014, thre are rarely true freshman starters. The most important recruiting class is probably the class of 2012. Then 2013, and finally 2014.
There should be no surprises here, most of your best recruiter are your big football schools.
What Does All This Mean?
All of this data is certainly alot to swallow at once, and it all is important. When I am handicapping games in the first 3 or 4 weeks, I am looking at all of these categories. I also have an aggregate rank that takes into account:
- Returning Seniors
- Returning Starters
- QB Returning
- Coach Returning
- Coordinators Returning (parlayed with starters on offense and defense returning)
- 3 year recruiting rank
In conclusion, here are some of the teams that I will immediately look to be bearish or bullish on to start the season. Obviously situations matter, but this helps narrow down what the stats are saying…
Bullish
Ole Miss: WARNING, I PROMISE THIS IS NOT A HOMER PICK
- 15 returning starters, QB returning, 9 defensive starters returning, Top 20% 3 yr recruiting rank
Virginia:
- only 9 seniors leaving, 15 returning starters including QB, Coach Returning (may not be good thing), 38th overall 3 year recruiting
Maryland:
- 17 returning starters, QB returning, Coach Returning, 44th 3 yr recruiting
Mississippi St.
- 16 returning starters, QB returning, Top 20% recruiting rank
Oklahoma
- 14 returning starters, (a few) returning QBs, 9 defensive returners, 13th 3 yr recruiting rank
Honorable Mention: Northwestern, Central Michigan, Auburn (scary, I know), Kentucky, Iowa, UL-Lafayette, Memphis, Nevada,ODU, SC
Bearish
Florida Atlantic
- Lots of seniors leaving, 10 starters returning, new coach, awful recruiting
Arkansas State
- See above, tiny bit better recruiting. 4 coaches, 4 years.
Wyoming
- Lots of starters returning, but lose a great QB, coach and coordinators, and bad recruiting
Wake Forest
- Jim Grobe left them in a terrible, terrible place. They may lose their spring game.
Vanderbilt
- Great coach left, only 10 starters return (no QB), think they are in a bad place
Honorable Mention: North Texas, WKU, Louisville, New Meixco St., UAB, Boise St
What other stats do you think matter? What other teams are you curious in? Reach out in the comments or ask me on twitter @mtsabert.
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7 thoughts on “Handicapping the Early College Football Season”
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Great write up to get the juices flowing for College Football. Love the analytics, except it’s going to be hard to be bearish on ODU, but stranger things have happened
Nice article, I completely argee with you on being bearish on Vanderbilt. Im still trying to figure out how they have been winning so many games the past couple of years. Oklahoma schedule is soo soft its criminal.
Here’s some actionable intelligence for you – Honorable Mention Auburn should be in top 5 bullish 🙂 – Auburn will be better this year despite losing Tre Mason and Greg Robinson. Why?
Auburn is deep with RBs including Artis Payne (no. 1 JUCO back two years ago over 1800 yds rushing and 600 last year in SEC at 6/yds per carry); Cory Grant (600 yds rushing last year, over 8/yds per carry; Alabama 100 m sprint champion in HS); Frosh Racean ‘Roc’ Thomas, legit 5* recruit and ‘Mr. Football’ Alabama, compared favorably to Cadillac Williams at same stage; and sleeper Peyton Barber (Tre Mason called him the best back on AU’s roster, himself included (!)) Replacing Greg Robinson is (likely) Shon Coleman; 5* out of HS, fully recovered from Leukemia, 6-6, 310 – reportedly significantly *stronger* than Greg Robinson (according to DL teammates), if you can believe it; battling Patrick Miller, a tenacious run blocker with 12 starts under his belt. The LT spot will be secure and all other 4 starters return. Auburn has also upgraded at WR, with D’haquille (sic?) ‘Duke’ Williams, no. 1 juco WR from Miss. CC who wowed at spring game & has drawn universal praise from coaches/teammates during practices – legit threat to score at any time, to go with returning receivers Sammie Coates, Quan Bray, and Ricardo Lewis. Stud TE CJ Ozumah returns. Defensively, biggest loss is Dee Ford, but DL is the deepest recruited position on the squad, w/ AU going 8 deep loaded with 5 stars and guys with quality SEC reps.
Secondary is also upgraded in talent with JUCO all-american safety Derrick Moncrief and Jonathan Ford, despite the disturbing arrest of Jonathan Mincy. Justin Garrett also returns at the ‘star’ to challenge/compete with Robenson Therezie (Garrett is the better athlete of the two when healthy). Auburn’s defense year 2 under Ellis Johnson will be better without any question, particularly against giving up the big play (their achilles last year).
Most importantly, Nick Marshall is thoroughly comfortable with the offense now, allowing Gus to open the playbook as was in evidence at the spring game (offense scored about 50 – in the first half). Auburn will be more dangerous and prolific offensively this year compared to last; which seem counter-intuitive considering they lost Tre Mason, but it is the truth. They offer value early on even giving what may seem like a large number week 1. 🙂
Jeff – this in invaluable information to have, thanks for sharing. I don’t really understand why many media pundits and even Vegas has Auburn 2nd or 3rd in the SEC. This is a team we expected nothing from last year, and they performed. Of course they had tons of luck (vs UGA and Bama).
They are only going to get better as Gus has more time to implement his system and recruit. This team should be extremely strong on offense. Last year we were very skeptical of their defense, and that looks to improve.
The only reason they are honorable mention is because I’m going strictly by what the numbers were saying.
I agree about Auburn. This season’s offense could be the best we’ll ever see. Marshall is much improved as a passer. Grant is scary as a home run threat coming out of the backfield. Duke Williams should be a force in the passing game. Auburn was a 65% run team last year and nobody could stop them. The WR combo of Williams, Coates and Bray might be as good as any in the country. Just think, last year was just year one for Marshall running the Malzahn offense. This year they will more than likely be more of a 55-45 run/pass offense, and that combo will make them impossible to defend. If you thought Baylor was good on offense last year, just watch this team in 2014 vs better competition. With the exception of Baylor, I don’t think anybody will be even remotely as close to as good on offense than Auburn. Marshall could account for as many as 5,000 yards this year. That’s why he is number one on my Heisman list. He was around 2000/1000 last year. I expect him to be at least 3000/1000 this year. Nobody is going to stop Auburn. You better be able to outscore them. Damn, this team put up 60 points on Mizzou last year. And Mizzou had a pretty darn good defense all year and had 2 All-American quality edge rushers. But it didn’t make any difference. This team ran all over Bama, and out gained FSU by nearly 100 yards in the title game. And that’s after coming off a 3-8 season! One other scary thing about Auburn is they will be better defensively! They have one of the most telnted D-Fronts in the country. Which is probably going to mean more at-bats for their offense. But shhh, Let’s just keep this between us donkeys and let the media run with the FSU’s and Bama’s out there.
Saber – I also really like the Rebels for the reasons you mention – excellent recruiting/upgraded talent; very experienced returning RSr QB and many returning starters with quality SEC starts. Hugh Freeze is a proven, quality coach as well. Boise without Chris Peterson and a new HC will not be better than last year and they were just above average then. Coach Harsin is a run-first kind of coach, judging by his Arkansas St. team, but Boise’s starting RBs, both returning from last year are possession type backs, not game breakers. Ole Miss will shut them down, score with a better QB and skill talent, and comfortably win by DDs. There is value with the Rebels anything under -10.
Also completely agree with you re: Mississippi St for a lot of the same reasons. They are a different team with Dak Prescott under center because, after Nick Marshall, he is the best dual threat QB in the SEC this year. I think -24 is a little low against a truly bad Southern Miss squad, but I generally like chalk week 1 among mismatched teams. 🙂 Glad we are on same page with these teams 🙂 ….