Offense was the name of the game in the SEC during the 2013 college football season. The conference best known for its elite defenses and power running games put up points in bunches last year thanks to its elite quarterback play.

The SEC has never had as much quarterback talent as it had in 2013. The conference produced 5 of the countries top 12 quarterbacks in passing efficiency and five 3,000 yard passers overall.

SEC schools averaged 31.37 points per game last year, and 9 schools averaged at least 30 points per game. In 2012 teams averaged 30.14 points per game with 7 schools averaging at least 30 points & in 2011 SEC schools only averaged 27.07 points per game with 5 averaging at least 30 points per game.

I look for the offenses to regress in 2014, some significantly.

The Exodus of the Elite Quarterbacks

Those 5 SEC quarterbacks that ranked in the NCAA’s Top 12 in pass efficiency last year … all gone.

Included in that group is the SEC’s all-time leading passer (Georgia’s Aaron Murray), two-time national champion (Alabama’s A.J. McCarron), Heisman Trophy winner (Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel) and South Carolina’s Connor Shaw (27-5 as the Gamecocks’ starting QB during his career in Columbia).

Overall, the SEC is losing 7 QB’s who combined for 20,298 passing yards & 167 touchdowns last season, and not much returns in 2014.

Only one of the top eight QBs in the SEC in pass efficiency is back (Nick Marshall of Auburn) and only one of the league’s top eight QBs in passing yardage is back (Bo Wallace of Mississippi).

Better Defenses in 2014

Several SEC defenses should be improved in 2014. 

Florida returns 7 starters to a unit that should be better in 2014 after experiencing massive injuries last year.

Georgia returns 10 starters and poached defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt from national champion Florida State. Expect significant improvement from the dogs in 2014.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Texas A & M all return at least 8 starters on defense and each look to take a big step forward on that side of the ball.

And of course Alabama (the SEC’s best defense in 2013), South Carolina and LSU will likely once again be right up there among the nation’s best defenses.

2014 SEC Totals = Significantly More Unders

In the 2013 regular season SEC teams went over the posted total in 84 games as opposed to going under 68 times (55.26%). Only Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State and South Carolina went under the total more then they went over.

The average posted total for games involving SEC schools last year was 56.16.

Looking at the 2014 returning production for each school, only Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee return a higher percentage of total tackles then they do total offense. These 5 schools also return their starting quarterback.

The other nine schools will return more defensive than offensive production and overall 11 schools will return more than 60% of their total defensive production from 2013.

Conclusion

SEC defenses allowed 24.91 points per game last year, up from 23.28 ppg in 2012 and up significantly from the 20.89 ppg they allowed in 2011.

With the spread offense being utilized by more and more teams within the league an increase in points was to be expected. But the fact that the SEC had some incredible quarterbacks the last few seasons significantly helped boost that scoring output.

Look for that trend to change in 2014. Will we see defensive numbers like we did a few years ago?  I doubt it. But with the exit of all these star QB’s and significantly more experience on defense this year, I expect we will see the offenses take a step back in 2014.

What do you guys think? Is SEC scoring output going to continue to trend upward or will the talent drain at quarterback allow the defenses to regain the upper hand?

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